Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms forecast
  across the East Central Florida interior this afternoon and
  evening. Storms could produce frequent lightning strikes,
  strong to locally damaging winds, small hail, and torrential
  downpours.

- Forecast continues to trend towards near to slightly above
  normal rain chances through the rest of the week. Forecast
  confidence decreases for early next week, but storms and above
  normal heat remain on tap.

- Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are expected
  through the forecast period, and Extreme impacts are possible
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Tonight...Troughing continues over the eastern US in
response to a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ribbons of
vorticity transiting the pattern have amplified the trough some,
pushing the base south over the Florida peninsula, but upper level
support for deep convection may dwindle as the day goes on
between the ridge axis already pushing offshore the east coast,
and the trough gradually weakening. Guidance continues to stick to
the latest trend, keeping the approaching weak front and drier
air near the boundary over North Florida, and near to slightly
below normal moisture over Central Florida. Notably, more moisture
is in the 850-700mb layer, which had been lacking the last couple
day and limiting rain chances. Weak offshore (WSW-SW) flow north
of the surface ridge axis will enhance the west coast sea breeze
and slow the east coast sea breeze, resulting in a collision and
scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms from near Lake
George to Orlando and to Lake Okeechobee in the late evening.

Prior to the collision, initially isolated showers and storms will
develop on the sea breezes in the early afternoon, gradually
increasing in coverage until the collision. Westerly steering flow
will push storms back towards the coast into the late evening and
early overnight before dissipating or moving offshore. Guidance
shows slight warming aloft as the trough departs and weakens (T500
around -7C), but still copious instability (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000
J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (7-9 C/km). Shear remains
weak at 20 kts or less, but low-level veering on boundaries could
provide some enhancement. Still some dry air present in the mid-
upper levels that could enhance downdrafts (DCAPE +800 J/kg).
Overall, primary storm hazards continue to be wind gusts 40-55
mph, with a very low chance (<5%) for isolated damaging gusts to
60 mph, hail up to 1", frequent to excessive lightning, and
torrential downpours. Better steering flow reduces the risk of
flooding some, but multiple boundary collisions could cause
slow/erratic storm motion, and locally high rainfall amounts of
2-3" leading to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas.

Technically a little less hot than yesterday, but won't really
feel like it. High temperatures in the L-M90s combined with
humidity will result in muggy heat afternoon heat indices 100-105,
and widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts with patches of Major in
the urban interior and parts of the southern coastal corridor.

Thursday-Friday...A trough swinging into the Pacific Northwest
flattens the ridge over the Desert Southwest, causing the trough
over the eastern US to weaken, and opening the door for high
pressure to fill over Florida from the western Atlantic. The weak
front departs north Thursday, allowing the surface ridge axis from
the Atlantic high to lift into Central Florida. Flow remains
generally offshore, but may become more southerly and light at
times, especially by Friday. Still some uncertainty where drier
air near the front will be come Thursday, but forecast trends are
to keep the driest air mostly north of the area and near normal
moisture over the Florida peninsula. The GFS still has PWATs down
to 1.4" along and north of I-4 Thursday, but suspect these are too
low and contaminating the PoPs. Current forecast calls for 20-50%
rain chances, highest to the south, but wouldn't be surprised if
these increased in the next cycle or two. Highest rain chances
gradually march west over the interior each afternoon as the east
coast sea breeze is able to push farther inland as the offshore
flow weakens. Heat starts to creep back up, with high temperatures
getting closer to the M90s along the coast an U90s inland. Peak
afternoon heat indices 102-107 just shy of Heat Advisory. Major
HeatRisk impacts gradually overtake Moderate, especially over the
urban interior.

Saturday-Tuesday...An upper-level blocking pattern develops over
the CONUS with Florida under the southeast flank of a ridge
building over the Central-Eastern US. At the surface the weak
ridge axis from the Atlantic high over Central Florida drops back
south through the weekend in response to a developing low pressure
system to the north. There is a fair amount of uncertainty how
the front associated with this low will evolve, with some model
solutions pushing it down towards Northeast to East Central
Florida as a weak backdoor front early next week, then attempting
to develop disturbances on the stalled boundary. With or without
the front, the pressure gradient is very loose, resulting in
light and variable flow that gives way to the sea breezes in the
afternoon and evenings. This will favor collisions over the spine
of the peninsula. Flow regime may switch to onshore going into
mid to late week. Ensemble mean moisture is generally near normal
through the period, resulting in near to slightly above normal
rain chances most days, occasionally upset by drier air aloft
knocking chances below normal (mainly Sunday at this juncture).
Highest chances along the sea breeze collision in the evenings
over the interior, pushing farther west if flow becomes more
easterly. Enough variation in forecast temperatures and moisture
that confidence in heat impacts are still low, but trends remain
very close to Heat Advisory criteria and will need to be closely
monitored. Current forecast calls for above normal heat with high
temperatures in the L-M90s, pushing towards the U90s inland
through Monday, resulting in peak afternoon heat indices in the
triple digits.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of
offshore moving lightning storms. A weak front dropping into North
Florida today keeps the ridge axis of the Atlantic high suppressed
over South Florida through Thursday, continuing offshore (WSW-SW)
through most of Thursday. The front then departs allowing the
ridge axis to lift north into Central Florida Friday and Saturday,
shifting light flow more southerly at times but generally
remaining offshore. Another low pressure system developing on the
residual front over the Deep South and southeast seaboard shunts
the ridge axis south again, and the weak front associated with the
low may drop south towards or into the local Atlantic waters early
next week. Winds back onshore (E-SE) from the afternoons into the
early overnights each day as the sea breeze develops. Wind speeds
generally 5-15 kts, occasionally ticking over 15 kts offshore in
the early overnights. Seas 1-2 ft. Highest chances for offshore
moving showers and lightning storms today and Thursday, then
chances decrease Friday going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR is forecast outside of storms with high pressure (~1021mb) over
the GOM. W winds are expected to back ESE in the aftn/eve before
becoming light & variable overnight. TAFs begin with VCTS and
PROB30/TEMPO groups for TSRA through 00Z/01Z w/ the potential for
a few strong to severe storms. Dry conditions are expected
overnight before TSRA returns THU aftn/eve, mainly after 18Z/19Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  93 /  40  40  30  30
MCO  76  95  76  95 /  40  50  30  40
MLB  76  91  77  91 /  20  40  30  30
VRB  75  92  77  92 /  20  40  20  30
LEE  76  95  77  95 /  40  50  20  40
SFB  76  95  76  96 /  40  50  30  40
ORL  76  94  77  95 /  40  50  30  40
FPR  75  92  76  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
114 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

FLZ045-241745-
Orange FL-
114 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wedgefield, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wedgefield, Avalon Park, Bithlo, and Christmas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 8119 2860 8097 2848 8091 2835 8088
      2835 8118
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 338DEG 14KT 2848 8106

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

FLZ247-347-447-547-647-747-241815-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Southern Brevard FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH
215 PM EDT...

At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Port Canaveral, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Cocoa, Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, and Port Saint John.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8057 2835 8057 2835 8087 2837 8087
      2839 8089 2841 8088 2843 8090 2845 8089
      2847 8090 2847 8088 2848 8087 2851 8088
      2851 8091 2852 8091 2864 8058 2860 8054
      2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 335DEG 12KT 2849 8064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

FLZ045-053-241830-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Celebration, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Bay Lake, Celebration, West Lake Toho, and Intercession
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2845 8163 2844 8142 2820 8139 2821 8153
      2826 8156 2826 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 310DEG 13KT 2833 8156

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
145 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

FLZ045-247-347-547-647-241830-
Orange FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
145 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Titusville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Cocoa, Sharpes, Port Saint John, and Lone Cabbage Fish
Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8074 2835 8100 2861 8102 2863 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 279DEG 11KT 2854 8088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

FLZ053-547-647-241830-
Osceola FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
159 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BREVARD AND
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lone Cabbage Fish Camp, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rockledge and Cocoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2816 8077 2829 8097 2835 8095 2835 8086
      2836 8087 2837 8087 2837 8088 2838 8088
      2839 8089 2839 8086 2836 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 291DEG 16KT 2835 8085

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
203 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

FLZ045-144-241830-
Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
203 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 203 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Horizon West, or near Bay Lake, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ocoee, Winter Garden, Windermere, Bay Lake, and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2844 8171 2857 8167 2854 8150 2838 8161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 291DEG 8KT 2846 8163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fehling