River Flood Watch 13, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a
  front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up
  south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease but
  flash flooding will remain possible due to training
  convection.

- Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding
  this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are
  possible especially tomorrow.

- Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe
  thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be
  possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Overnight through Wednesday:

The elevated environment will remain unstable as we remain in
the warm sector with upper divergence, weak vorticity advection,
and mid level warm air advection overhead. This will allow for a
few storms to percolate across portions of central and southern
WI overnight. Given the lingering high MUCAPE, a few storms
could approach marginal severe levels at times and bear
watching. The threat will wane as the night goes on and as the
LLJ veers.

The effective surface boundary should be stationed over
northern IL Wednesday morning as a weak mid level shortwave
trough tracks across the region. Southern WI may see scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms with the overriding of the
boundary in the morning and midday Wed.

A deeper shortwave trough will track across NE Wed morning and
into western IA by early evening. The associated surface low on
the leading edge should help lift that boundary into southern WI
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms within the
warm sector will have the potential for severe-level hail and
wind. Heavy rain is a threat with this system. We may need an
areal flood watch.

Meanwhile, there will be a steady northeast wind off Lake
Michigan and keep the air stable with low clouds and patchy fog,
especially north of Milwaukee. How far inland the fog/stratus
get Wed morning is still uncertain. Wherever the boundary
between the lake air and the warm, unstable air lands Wed
afternoon, this will be an extra focus for low level helicity
and the potential for a brief tornado along this boundary if
storms become strong enough.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

That deeper shortwave trough that went across IA Wed night will
track across southern WI Thursday morning. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected with this feature,
especially in the morning with deeper moisture still in place
over the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
linger into the afternoon. As the deeper moisture departs during
this time and we heat up, the low level lapse rates will
increase to allow for instability (up to 1000 j/kg) to develop.
A lake breeze should push inland and help to trigger some of the
showers/storms. Look for the precip chances to exit by sunset.

High pressure will pass through Thursday night and lows will dip
into the 40s wherever the lake breeze hit, so bisecting southern
WI from east to west. Friday morning and early afternoon look
quiet, but we will be getting primed for the next system to arrive
Friday late afternoon and night.

Low pressure tracking across the northern Plains on Friday, in
response to a high-amplitude upper trough, will cross Lake
Superior Friday night. A strong cold front will slide across WI
from west to east late Friday night through Saturday morning.
Showers are thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector
Friday afternoon/evening and also along the cold front. Scattered
showers are possible behind the front during the day Saturday.
Strong cold air advection will follow, so low temps should dip
down to around or below freezing Saturday night on brisk westerly
winds. The models dry out the atmosphere quickly, but if there
happens to be any lingering moisture, the precip type would chance
to flurries/snow.

Brisk westerly winds will persist through Sunday. Finally, high
pressure will dominate and give us dry weather through Monday or
Tuesday. The weather pattern has a large degree of uncertainty
beyond Monday between the models.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The main area of storms exited southeastern WI but there are a
few lingering showers and thunderstorms that will persist into
the overnight hours. There should be a lull in the shower
activity Wednesday morning but IFR ceilings and visibility may
work into east central WI including Sheboygan overnight into
Saturday morning on moist ENE winds off Lake Michigan. There is
a lot of uncertainty about how far inland and southward these
low ceilings and fog will expand.

The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
will arrive in southern WI late Wednesday afternoon and taper
off during late evening.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of
the lake into tomorrow, slowly sinking south to the southern end
of the lake by Thursday morning. Winds will remain southerly
south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the
front will remain light and variable to northerly during this
time. The front will clear the lake as a cold front Friday,
before low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from the west.

Thunderstorms are possible over the southern third overnight into
Thursday morning, then Thursday late afternoon and night.
Thunderstorm chances return along a cold front Friday night.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872
     until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-160430-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours. Small hail, cloud to ground lightning and
locally heavy rainfall are expected. There is a localized flash
flood threat where thunderstorms move slow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There is yet another risk of severe thunderstorms from mid
afternoon Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Localized damaging
winds, hail to the size of one inch and cloud to ground lightning
are expected. Additional heavy rain will maintain a flooding risk
across the area. Keep up with the latest forecast updates.

There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms Thursday. Another
round of potentially severe thunderstorms is expected from late
Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday.

LMZ643>646-160430-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Dense fog continues mainly north of Milwaukee through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Chances for thunderstorms continue through the end of the week,
with some strong to severe storms possible Wednesday and Friday
evening.

Fog will continue into Wednesday morning.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-160430-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Dense fog continues for the northern two thirds of Lake Michigan
the rest of tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the far southern
portion of the lake through the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Chances for thunderstorms continue through the end of the week,
with some strong to severe storms possible Wednesday and Friday
evening.

Fog will continue into Wednesday morning.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1229 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Hail             4 E Maple Bluff         43.11N 89.29W
04/14/2026  M4.00 Inch       Dane               WI   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter measures softball sized hail
            near Maple Bluff.

&&

AQ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             4 SW Middleton          43.07N 89.57W
04/14/2026  M2.75 Inch       Dane               WI   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter measures hail stones as
            large as 2.75 inches in diameter.

&&

AQ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Paoli               42.94N 89.61W
04/14/2026  E70 MPH          Dane               WI   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter estimates 70 MPH winds.

&&

AQ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Rockdale           42.94N 89.00W
04/14/2026  E70 MPH          Jefferson          WI   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter estimates 70 MPH winds.

&&

AQ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1243 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Hail             2 NE Maple Bluff        43.14N 89.35W
04/14/2026  E2.75 Inch       Dane               WI   Public

            Trained spotter estimates baseball sized
            hail.

&&

AQ

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