Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

744 
WGUS73 KMKX 150356
FFSMKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1056 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

WIC079-133-150406-
/O.EXP.KMKX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260415T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Milwaukee WI-Waukesha WI-
1056 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHERN MILWAUKEE AND NORTHEASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heaviest rain has ended. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8830 4319 8806 4319 8789 4316 8789
      4313 8790 4310 8788 4307 8787 4305 8788
      4305 8789 4304 8790 4303 8790 4300 8789
      4299 8787 4297 8787 4302 8806 4299 8821

$$

KUROSKI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
723 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather event remains forecast through 10
  PM. Severe winds and tornadoes continue to be possible. Seek
  immediate shelter if a warning is issued for your area this
  evening.

- Additional severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon if a
  front remains stalled across the area. If the front sets up
  south of the area, severe potential will greatly decrease but
  flash flooding will remain possible due to training
  convection.

- Heavy rainfall could lead to additional periods of flooding
  this afternoon into Wednesday. Additional Flood Watches are
  possible especially tomorrow.

- Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe
  thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. All severe hazards will be
  possible later Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 722 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Several discrete supercell thunderstorms tracked across portions
of southern WI between 4 and 7 PM. Many produced very large,
destructive hail of 2.5 to 3 inches in diameter. There were
many areas of radar- indicated rotation capable of producing
tornadoes. There was one radar- confirmed tornado warning issued
in northern Waukesha county. We will continue to collect damage
reports through the morning and conduct any formal damage
surveys deemed necessary tomorrow morning.

The storms have congealed more now and flash flooding is a
growing concern from repeated rounds of storms over certain
areas. Damaging winds are a growing concern over hail now. There
is also a QLCS tornado concern due to 0-3 shear vectors are WSW
at 35 to 40 kt which are perpendicular to that line of storms
tracking into south central WI. The low level jet is increasing,
so any surge to the ENE could see a brief spin-up.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Storms have begun to fire this afternoon over central to NW
Iowa. This corroborates a westward shift in initiation trends in
recent runs of the HRRR model. Current runs of the WoFS support
two main areas of storms this afternoon with a cluster of
storms over central WI through Sauk, Columbia, Green Lake, and
Marquette Counties that will then track east to the lakeshore
and a cluster that will move through southwest Wisconsin and
east to the lake. These storms are projected to be supercells
when they enter our area but may cluster into a line with
eastward extent

An 18z sounding from Davenport supports a very unstable
environment supportive of 4000 J/kg held by a cap at 800mb. With
the cap eroding to our west, explosive supercell development is
expected, leading to the corridors of storms in southern WI
mentioned in the previous paragraph. All hazards will be
possible during the supercell mode, as mid level lapse rates ~8
C/km and hodograph curvature will support large hail, and
curvature in the low levels of the hodographs and 3CAPE >150J/kg
will support 0-1 km SRH >200 m2/s2 and low level stretching for
tornado formation. As we head into the evening, there may be
some potential for these storms to become linear, leading to a
damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat, especially as the LLJ
increases near sunset and lengthens the low level hodographs.
Todays severe weather hazards are expected to be high end and
should not be taken lightly. Have multiple ways to receive
warnings.

Storms are largely expected to be out of the area after 10PM,
and may push a surface boundary through our area. If this
happens, storms tomorrow will be less severe though flash
flooding will still be a threat. Runs of the CAMs depict a west
to east oriented line of storms that may set up along the WI/IL
border during the late afternoon into the evening, capable of
heavy rain. The wind, hail, and tornado threat with the storms
tomorrow will be far less than today.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

A shortwave trough will track across southern WI Thursday morning.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with this
feature, especially in the morning with deeper moisture still in
place over the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
will linger into the afternoon. As the deeper moisture departs
during this time and we heat up, the low level lapse rates will
increase to allow for instability (up to 1000 j/kg) to develop. A
lake breeze should push inland and help to trigger some of the
showers/storms. Look for the precip chances to exit by sunset.

High pressure will pass through Thursday night and lows will dip
into the 40s wherever the lake breeze hit, so bisecting southern
WI from east to west. Friday morning and early afternoon look
quiet, but we will be getting primed for the next system to arrive
Friday late afternoon and night.

Low pressure tracking across the northern Plains on Friday, in
response to a high-amplitude upper trough, will cross Lake
Superior Friday night. A strong cold front will slide across WI
from west to east late Friday night through Saturday morning.
Showers are thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector
Friday afternoon/evening and also along the cold front. Scattered
showers are possible behind the front during the day Saturday.
Strong cold air advection will follow, so low temps should dip
down to around or below freezing Saturday night on brisk westerly
winds. The models dry out the atmosphere quickly, but if there
happens to be any lingering moisture, the precip type would chance
to flurries/snow.

Brisk westerly winds will persist through Sunday. Finally, high
pressure will dominate and give us dry weather through Monday or
Tuesday. The weather pattern has a large degree of uncertainty
beyond Monday between the models.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 722 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thunderstorms will exit eastern and southern WI around midnight
or 1 AM. There is a small chance of residual showers along the
WI/IL border overnight and there is some indication that there
could be shower activity all the way up to Madison and Milwaukee
Saturday morning after dawn until mid morning.

IFR ceilings and visibility may work into east central WI
including Sheboygan overnight into Saturday morning on moist ENE
winds off Lake Michigan. There is a lot of uncertainty about how
far inland and southward these low ceilings and fog will
expand.

The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
will arrive in southern WI during the late afternoon and taper
off during late evening.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of
the lake into tomorrow, slowly sinking south to the southern end
of the lake by Thursday morning. Winds will remain southerly
south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the
front will remain light and variable to northerly during this
time. Today, severe storms are expected over the southern half
to southern two thirds of the lake. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible and waterspouts may occur with any tornadic storms from
land that move over the waters. This will be most likely near
the shoreline of Wisconsin and Illinois.

The front will clear the lake as a cold front Friday, before
low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from the west.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872
     until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-152015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Several significant severe storms are expected through late
evening. All severe weather hazards, including very large hail
greater than golf ball size and a few tornadoes, are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Additional severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Heavy rain may produce flooding. Keep up with the
latest forecast updates.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday. Another round of
thunderstorms is forecast Friday night into Saturday. Some of
these storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed through this evening. Spotter
activation may be needed once again on Wednesday.

LMZ643>646-152015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Dense fog continues mainly north of Milwaukee through tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Chances for thunderstorms continue through the end of the week,
with some strong to severe storms possible Wednesday and Friday
evening.

Fog may continue into Wednesday morning.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-152015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Dense fog continues for the northern two thirds of Lake Michigan
through tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening, particularly over
the south half of the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Chances for thunderstorms continue through the end of the week,
with some strong to severe storms possible Wednesday and Friday
evening.

Fog may continue into Wednesday morning.

MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
727 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Flash Flood      3 NNW Bayside           43.22N 87.92W
04/14/2026                   Ozaukee            WI   Emergency Mngr

            Flooded roads and intersections on Mequon Rd
            from Wauwatosa Rd to East of I-43. Other
            intersections with 3-6 inches of standing
            water.

&&

Halbach

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Hail             1 E Sun Prairie         43.18N 89.21W
04/14/2026  E1.00 Inch       Dane               WI   Public

            Photo from social media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
731 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             Mazomanie               43.18N 89.79W
04/14/2026  M1.50 Inch       Dane               WI   Public

            Photo from social media with a quarter for
            comparison.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
734 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Tornado          2 NW Sussex             43.15N 88.24W
04/14/2026                   Waukesha           WI   Law Enforcement

            Radar confirmed tornadic debris signature at
            this location. Multiple roofs ripped off a
            commercial facility reported by law
            enforcement. Siding damage to nearby church.

&&

Halbach

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
738 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     Hail             Princeton               43.85N 89.14W
04/14/2026  M1.00 Inch       Green Lake         WI   Public

            Photo from social media with a quarter for
            comparison.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Hail             3 SSE Germantown        43.20N 88.11W
04/14/2026  E1.25 Inch       Washington         WI   Amateur Radio

0659 PM     Hail             2 SSE Germantown        43.21N 88.11W
04/14/2026  M1.00 Inch       Washington         WI   Amateur Radio

&&