Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
   today with the highest chances remaining over the interior
   sections.

 - Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110
   across most areas this afternoon

 - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the
   week will introduce a high risk of rip currents along the
   Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery indicates that most of South Florida
will remain entrenched in deep moisture, allowing for scattered to
numerous thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. Florida finds
itself in a corridor of moisture steered by a mid-level low pressure
system over Georgia and the Bermuda high over the mid-Atlantic. As a
result, an area of scattered convection and broken mid to high level
clouds extends along a stationary boundary from north Florida to the
Jersey shore. Most of the better forcing for storms will remain off
shore along the main trough axis in the western Atlantic and closer
to the stationary front over the Carolinas. The synoptic flow will
generally remain very weak over South Florida, keeping most
thunderstorm activity tied to sea breeze and outflow boundary
interactions. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will
begin to exert greater influence over the peninsula and push
westward into the Gulf by the middle of the week. This will allow
for winds to begin shifting more southerly to southeasterly. This
shift in winds will likely place the higher chances of thunderstorms
(65% to 75%) more over interior South Florida for the next couple of
afternoons.

Throughout the morning, southwesterly winds had persisted across the
region, a little bit longer than guidance had been anticipating. As
a result, thunderstorm initiation along the Atlantic sea breeze may
begin closer to the metro area than what some CAMs are showing. With
surface flow looking to shift more southerly to southeasterly,
storms will likely focus first along sea breeze convergence in the
southern Everglades as discrete single cells. Activity should then
shift northward towards the Lake Okeechobee region along
thunderstorm outflows, becoming more conglomerated and
multicellular. Weak steering and a moist atmosphere should allow for
slow moving and efficient rainfall producing storms. With above
average PWATs near 2 inches, any storms that develop over the metro
will have the potential to create localized urban flooding impacts
for low lying and poor drainage locations. DCAPE looks to be a
little less this afternoon, but steep low level lapse rates and
plenty of surface based instability should allow for a few strong
storms to produce gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph.

By Wednesday morning, the ridge over the Atlantic will continue to
strengthen over the region, creating a stronger pressure gradient
along the Atlantic coast. Therefore, winds will be a little bit
stronger from the east to southeast. This will likely push the
Atlantic sea breeze further inland, which is why the highest chances
for thunderstorms during the afternoon will focus along interior and
Southwest Florida. Once again, storms will be efficient rainfall
producers, with locally heavy amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will also be concerns with any storm.

Most of South Florida will continue to see widespread Moderate
HeatRisk, affecting sensitive individuals without proper colling or
hydration. High temperatures will be typical for this time of year,
in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will climb into the 105 to 110 F
range, so we will continue to monitor for any Heat Advisory concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Heading into Thursday, the mid-level western Atlantic ridge
continues to build west towards the East Coast, while surface high
pressure remains in place over the Florida Peninsula. With deep
tropical moisture in place (PWATs around 2.0-2.2 inches) and
persistent light easterly flow, diurnal convection will be once
again largely focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.
However, ample moisture will still support scattered morning and
late afternoon showers along the East Coast. Meanwhile, global and
ensemble guidance continues to depict a TUTT feature traversing
just north of the Bahamas and approaching the Florida Peninsula
Thursday into Friday. By Friday, the overall synoptic picture will
hinge on the influence of this disturbance as it tracks along the
periphery of the Bermuda high. Guidance remains split on its
exact track and degree of influence over South Florida. One global
ensemble suite brings the disturbance closer to the peninsula,
enhancing upper level support for convection, while another keeps
the TUTT further northeast off the Atlantic coast. Regardless of
which scenario unfolds, the vast majority of ensemble members
cluster around low- end QPF values (0.1 to 0.5 inches), suggesting
that widespread heavy accumulation is unlikely outside of any
isolated outlier.

Heading into Saturday and Sunday, the mid-level western Atlantic
ridge re-establishes its dominance over South Florida, maintaining a
prevailing light to moderate southeasterly flow. A drier airmass
will filter into the region, with PWATs dropping into the 1.6-1.8
inch range, below climatological norms for this time of year. This
drier profile should act to further suppress widespread convective
activity. However, localized sea-breeze boundaries interacting with
lingering low-level moisture could still trigger isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily
concentrated over the interior and Southwest Florida. With the
robust ridge remaining entrenched, a warming trend will take hold
through the weekend and persist into the beginning of next week.
Highs will climb into the low 90s, just above seasonal norms, while
peak heat index values reach 105-110 F. Heat impacts are expected to
become an increasing concern, particularly across the East Coast
metro areas and Southwest Florida, where Moderate to Major HeatRisk
is currently forecast on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at at most sites through the
afternoon. Have included a few TEMPOs and PROB30s for brief
periods of MVFR conditions from thunderstorms forming along the
sea breeze. A Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF through
the afternoon. Activity should diminish after sunset with winds
becoming light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will slowly
start to increase tonight into Wednesday as they shift and become
east southeasterly. Easterly winds become moderate across most of
the local waters during the second half of the week. These winds
could become occasionally fresh over the Atlantic waters during this
time frame. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at
2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will gradually start to increase during the second
half of the week as a disturbance approaches from the east.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across all local waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase heading into the second half
of the week. This will allow for the rip current risk to become
high during this time frame across the Atlantic Coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  89  79  90 /  40  70  40  70
West Kendall     75  90  77  90 /  30  70  40  60
Opa-Locka        78  90  79  91 /  40  70  40  70
Homestead        78  89  78  90 /  30  70  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  88  80  89 /  40  70  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  80  90 /  40  70  50  70
Pembroke Pines   79  89  80  90 /  40  70  40  70
West Palm Beach  77  90  79  90 /  30  60  30  70
Boca Raton       77  88  79  89 /  40  70  50  70
Naples           77  90  76  91 /  30  90  20  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...NMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1029 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Lightning        2 NW Coral Way Village  25.75N 80.34W
08/03/2026                   Miami-Dade         FL   Broadcast Media

            Lightning struck palm tree causing fire to
            spread to a gazebo. Location estimated by
            radar.

0215 AM     Lightning        1 ENE Fort Lauderdale   26.12N 80.14W
08/03/2026                   Broward            FL   Broadcast Media

            Lightning struck a transformer, causing
            downed powerlines and a small fire along the
            metal fence line.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
147 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLZ073-074-173-174-041830-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
147 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 230 PM EDT...

At 146 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Homestead General Airport, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead General Airport, The Redland, Florida City,
Royal Palm Ranger, Leisure City, and Everglades National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2532 8056 2547 8076 2556 8066 2560 8052
      2543 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 046DEG 6KT 2550 8052

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
222 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLZ073-074-041900-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
222 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 300 PM EDT...

At 222 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Intersection Krome And Kendall Drive, or 7
miles north of The Redland, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
The Redland, Richmond West, Country Walk, Intersection Krome And
Kendall Drive, The Hammocks, Kendale Lakes, Kendall West, and
Inlikita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2555 8047 2567 8060 2574 8063 2576 8061
      2575 8043 2560 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 195DEG 9KT 2565 8049

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLZ063-041930-
Glades FL-
255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Glades
County through 330 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Muse, or 9 miles north of Labelle, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Palmdale, Ortona, and Muse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8121 2685 8125 2677 8131 2683 8157
      2703 8156 2703 8134 2704 8134 2704 8133
      2703 8133 2703 8127 2704 8127 2704 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 191DEG 8KT 2689 8146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
335 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLZ071>074-042015-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
335 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Miami-Dade and south central Broward Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Pennsuco, or near Hialeah, moving north at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah
Gardens, Medley, Intersection Krome And U.S. 27, Palm Springs North,
Country Club, and Pennsuco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2582 8031 2583 8064 2603 8063 2603 8029
      2586 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 182DEG 8KT 2588 8038

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
349 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLZ063-066-042030-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
349 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hendry
and central Glades Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Ortona, or 7 miles west of
Moore Haven, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeport, Palmdale, Port La Belle, Ortona, Brighton Seminole
Reservation, and Lake Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2710 8092 2701 8103 2700 8106 2697 8109
      2696 8108 2695 8110 2693 8110 2693 8112
      2691 8110 2689 8112 2688 8111 2669 8112
      2655 8124 2663 8144 2703 8130 2703 8127
      2712 8127 2712 8117 2721 8117 2721 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 185DEG 14KT 2687 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR