Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Miami, FL

800 
WWUS52 KMFL 041825
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
225 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLC086-041835-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260804T1830Z/
Miami-Dade FL-
225 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 230 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2567 8052 2549 8036 2533 8054 2548 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 194DEG 4KT 2555 8054 

$$

AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 744 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
   today with the highest chances remaining over the interior
   sections.

 - Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110
   across most areas this afternoon

 - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the
   week will introduce a high risk of rip currents along the
   Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A mid level low will meander across Georgia, the western Carolinas,
and the Tennessee River Valley today and tonight as strong mid level
ridging over the western Atlantic keeps it blocked from progressing
eastward. This mid level low will gradually open up and will be
pulled northeastward on Wednesday eventually interacting with and
getting absorbed by another trough digging down into the Northern
Plains. As this happens, this will allow for mid level ridging in
the western Atlantic to gradually extend towards South Florida
heading into Wednesday. At the surface, A stationary boundary over
the Southeast will gradually washout out as today progresses and an
area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will gradually start
to push over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf through
Wednesday.

Winds across the region today will remain rather light and sea
breeze driven, however, it is important to note that the general
steering flow will slowly try to shift today, becoming more south to
southeasterly as the day progresses. Plenty of moisture will still
remain in place over the region as PWAT values remain high,
(generally between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across the area this
afternoon). This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the sea breezes as they push inland.
With the steering flow remaining light out of the south southeast,
the highest coverage of convection will try to shift over towards
the interior this afternoon. However, since the steering flow will
be light, showers and storms may still drift back over the portions
of the east coast metro areas later in the afternoon when storm
motion generally become dependent on thunderstorm outflow
boundaries. Storm motion will still remain slow and high rainfall
rates will continue to occur with the stronger storms due to the
abundance of moisture in place.

On Wednesday as the mid level ridging builds closer to the region
and the surface high extends over South Florida and into the eastern
Gulf, easterly wind flow will develop and will gradually increase as
the day progresses. This will allow for the east coast sea breeze to
push further inland, focusing the highest chances of shower and
thunderstorm development over the interior and into Southwest
Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong
thunderstorm development containing gusty winds cannot be ruled out
especially over Southwest Florida where mesoscale boundary collisions
take place and where instability is maximized.

High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across most
of South Florida today and Wednesday. Peak heat index values will
generally range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. This will result
in a widespread moderate HeatRisk mainly across the metro areas
across South Florida. However, there is a low end chance (around 20
percent) of seeing the HeatRisk go into the Major category across
portions of the east coast metro areas as well as Southwest Florida
today and Wednesday. The major category is heat that could affect
anyone without cooling or proper hydration.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Heading into Thursday, the mid-level western Atlantic ridge
continues to build west towards the East Coast, while surface high
pressure remains in place over the Florida Peninsula. With deep
tropical moisture in place (PWATs around 2.0-2.2 inches) and
persistent light easterly flow, diurnal convection will be once
again largely focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.
However, ample moisture will still support scattered morning and
late afternoon showers along the East Coast. Meanwhile, global and
ensemble guidance continues to depict a TUTT feature traversing
just north of the Bahamas and approaching the Florida Peninsula
Thursday into Friday. By Friday, the overall synoptic picture will
hinge on the influence of this disturbance as it tracks along the
periphery of the Bermuda high. Guidance remains split on its
exact track and degree of influence over South Florida. One global
ensemble suite brings the disturbance closer to the peninsula,
enhancing upper level support for convection, while another keeps
the TUTT further northeast off the Atlantic coast. Regardless of
which scenario unfolds, the vast majority of ensemble members
cluster around low- end QPF values (0.1 to 0.5 inches), suggesting
that widespread heavy accumulation is unlikely outside of any
isolated outlier.

Heading into Saturday and Sunday, the mid-level western Atlantic
ridge re-establishes its dominance over South Florida, maintaining a
prevailing light to moderate southeasterly flow. A drier airmass
will filter into the region, with PWATs dropping into the 1.6-1.8
inch range, below climatological norms for this time of year. This
drier profile should act to further suppress widespread convective
activity. However, localized sea-breeze boundaries interacting with
lingering low-level moisture could still trigger isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily
concentrated over the interior and Southwest Florida. With the
robust ridge remaining entrenched, a warming trend will take hold
through the weekend and persist into the beginning of next week.
Highs will climb into the low 90s, just above seasonal norms, while
peak heat index values reach 105-110 F. Heat impacts are expected to
become an increasing concern, particularly across the East Coast
metro areas and Southwest Florida, where Moderate to Major HeatRisk
is currently forecast on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Light and variable winds will organize into prevailing S/SE winds
for east coast terminals. Scattered storms and showers will begin
to develop in the early afternoon near east coast terminal sites
and KAPF. As an afternoon Gulf Breeze sets up, SW winds are
expected for KAPF and convection over the interior counties may
push east. Confidence on TS development over the east coast
terminals is low; TEMPO groups may be added in future ammendments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will slowly
start to increase tonight into Wednesday as they shift and become
east southeasterly. Easterly winds become moderate across most of
the local waters during the second half of the week. These winds
could become occasionally fresh over the Atlantic waters during this
time frame. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at
2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will gradually start to increase during the second
half of the week as a disturbance approaches from the east.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across all local waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase heading into the second half
of the week. This will allow for the rip current risk to become
high during this time frame across the Atlantic Coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  90  80 /  70  30  40  30
West Kendall     91  77  90  77 /  80  30  50  20
Opa-Locka        92  79  91  80 /  70  30  50  30
Homestead        91  78  90  79 /  70  30  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  89  80 /  60  30  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  90  79  90  80 /  70  30  50  30
Pembroke Pines   91  79  90  81 /  70  30  50  30
West Palm Beach  91  77  90  79 /  60  20  60  20
Boca Raton       90  78  89  80 /  60  20  50  30
Naples           91  77  91  76 /  50  30  80  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...AEG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1029 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Lightning        2 NW Coral Way Village  25.75N 80.34W
08/03/2026                   Miami-Dade         FL   Broadcast Media

            Lightning struck palm tree causing fire to
            spread to a gazebo. Location estimated by
            radar.

0215 AM     Lightning        1 ENE Fort Lauderdale   26.12N 80.14W
08/03/2026                   Broward            FL   Broadcast Media

            Lightning struck a transformer, causing
            downed powerlines and a small fire along the
            metal fence line.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
147 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

FLZ073-074-173-174-041830-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
147 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 230 PM EDT...

At 146 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Homestead General Airport, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead General Airport, The Redland, Florida City,
Royal Palm Ranger, Leisure City, and Everglades National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2532 8056 2547 8076 2556 8066 2560 8052
      2543 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 046DEG 6KT 2550 8052

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR