Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected overnight into early
  Tuesday morning with the threat for damaging winds, large hail,
  and strong tornadoes.

- Another round of severe weather is expected Tuesday afternoon
  into early Wednesday morning. Primary threats will be damaging
  and large hail with a secondary threat for a few tornadoes.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday.
  Otherwise, generally dry weather is expected on Thursday and
  over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A busy overnight hour is progressing with a line of severe
thunderstorms moving into the far northwestern portions of the
Mid-South and some isolated storms developing across West TN.
Through the remainder of the overnight and early morning hours,
this line will continue to move through a favorable, fairly
uncapped environment. Latest mesoanalysis data from the region
continues to highlight MLCAPE values in the 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg
range with 0-3km SRH values over 400 m2/s2. While storms ahead of
the main line have remained tame over the past 30 minutes, this
will likely change as the forcing continues to progress eastward.
All storm modes will remain on the table into the overnight hours,
with a Tornado Watch in effect until 5 AM for the entire area.
The area of greatest concern does appear to be across eastern AR
and north of the TN/MS stateline, but storms will have the
potential to go severe south of the TN/MS line later in the
overnight hours.

Through the rest of Tuesday, a secondary shortwave will move off
of the Rockies through the daytime, bringing another round of
severe weather to the Mid-South. Any lingering convection from
the ongoing overnight round will move out of the area by mid-
morning, allowing for plenty of time for the atmosphere to
destabilize once again heading into the afternoon and evening.
The entire Mid-South is in either an Enhanced Risk (3/5) or
Slight Risk (2/5) once again for Tuesday. Guidance continues to
suggest yet another robust environment across the Mid-South, with
MLCAPE values >2,500 J/kg, ample deep layer shear, and lapse
rates between 7 to 8. Timing with this would be generally after 2
PM. All storm modes are on the table once again, but there is more
confidence for a damaging wind and large hail threat. In addition
to the severe weather threat, there is an increasing concern for
a flooding threat by the evening hours. PWAT values will be over
the 90th percentile for the time of year, with some CAMs showing
storms lingering along the I-40 corridor. If any of these
convective storms begin to train over an area, this would
significantly increase the flooding concern pretty rapidly. While
we have been in a drought, given the overnight rainfall expected,
any additional rainfall that lingers could quickly become an issue
especially in metropolitan areas. Instability will begin to
diminish as we approach midnight, with the main severe weather
threat likely ending by midnight. Some lingering showers could
linger into early Wednesday morning.

Primarily zonal to weak northwesterly flow in the upper-levels
will arrive by Wednesday, with a cooler and increasingly dry
forecast by the middle to end of the work week. While some
lingering moisture could bring showers (~20% chance) to our
southern tier of counties, confidence overall is low and most of
the area will likely remain dry. By the end of the week, an upper-
level low will move out of the four corners, bringing our next
potential rain maker to the Mid-South Friday into Saturday.
Severe weather does not appear to be a concern with this system,
with little to no instability expected. As far as high
temperatures go, temperatures will continue to fall by Wednesday
with temperatures spanning the 70s before dipping into the 60s
Thursday through at least the first half of the weekend. 6 to
10 day CPC guidance does keep the Mid-South in a below normal
temperature outlook with near to below normal precipitation, so
overall the cooler pattern will likely continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon due to a mid-
level cap. This cap is finally eroding, allowing convection to
increase in coverage. While this activity will be more
scattered/discrete, more organized storms are expected to move
southeast into the CWA late this evening into the early morning
hours. This activity will have the potential for hail, damaging
wind, and even a few tornadoes, winding down late tonight with a
lull in precipitation chances Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings are
expected across much of the area between 12-18z. The NBM is even
indicating ~25% chance of IFR, but the HREF is much lower at ~10%
(more likely). Another round of TSRA is expected on Tuesday
afternoon. This round of storms will also be potentially severe,
especially along and south of I-40.

The MKL and JBR ASOS continue to report -RA despite no radar
echoes in the area. This is likely due to spider webs causing
erroneous readings at these sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Minimal fire danger concerns with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected through Tuesday. Dry conditions with minRH
values below 40% will return on Thursday, before additional
moisture returns to end the week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ007-008-010>012-280000-
Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-Tate MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN COAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN TUNICA...SOUTHWESTERN TATE...NORTHERN QUITMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonestown, or 13 miles southeast of Helena-West Helena, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jonestown, Crenshaw, Sledge, Phillipp, Strayhorn, Dubbs, Dundee,
Little Texas, Lula, Falcon, Askew, Gerlach Mill, Moon, Buxton,
Savage, Prichard, Sarah, Matagorda, Rich, and Cypress Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 9020 3473 9020 3474 9018 3451 8996
      3428 9044 3443 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 234DEG 34KT 3440 9044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ007-008-011-012-280030-
Tunica MS-Tate MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TUNICA...
SOUTHEASTERN TATE...NORTHEASTERN QUITMAN AND NORTHERN PANOLA COUNTIES
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crenshaw, or 16 miles southwest of Senatobia, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Senatobia, Sardis, Coldwater, Como, Crenshaw, Sledge, Pleasant Grove,
Falcon, Askew, Gerlach Mill, Looxahoma, Buxton, Crossroad, McGhee,
Longtown, Tibbs, Ballentine, Sarah, Poagville, and Hayes Crossing.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 252
and 270.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8985 3447 8972 3446 8972 3435 9025
      3453 9035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 247DEG 34KT 3447 9022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
739 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ011-012-020-021-280115-
Tallahatchie MS-Panola MS-Yalobusha MS-Quitman MS-
739 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL YALOBUSHA...
NORTHERN TALLAHATCHIE...SOUTHEASTERN QUITMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sumner, or 15 miles west of Charleston, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Charleston, George Payne State Park, Tutwiler, Crowder,
Webb, Sumner, Pope, Enid, Vance, Oakland, Courtland, Mims, Denton,
Mikoma, Stover, Longstreet, Asa, Tillatoba, and Waverly.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 221
and 237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 9039 3408 9044 3432 8998 3399 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 255DEG 36KT 3402 9033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
857 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ002-003-280230-
Marshall MS-Benton MS-
857 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 856 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wall Doxey State Park, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wall Doxey State Park, Hickory Flat, Potts Camp, Malone, Winborn,
Waterford, Galena, Waites, and Lake Center.

This includes Interstate 22 in Mississipppi between mile markers 34
and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8959 3480 8926 3460 8916 3460 8924
      3458 8925 3456 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 254DEG 30KT 3462 8952

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
927 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     Hail             Hickory Flat            34.62N 89.19W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Benton             MS   Broadcast Media

            1 inch hail falling in Hickory Flat.

&&

TAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1146 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Rector                  36.27N 90.29W
04/27/2026  M60 MPH          Clay               AR   Broadcast Media

            Thunderstorm wind gust reported near Rector.
            Estimated at 60 mph.

&&

TB