Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- A Slight (level 2/5) Risk to Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for
  damaging winds, large hail, and strong tornadoes covers the
  Mid-South this evening through early Tuesday morning.

- Another round of severe weather is expected Tuesday afternoon
  into early Wednesday morning with a Slight (2/5) Risk in effect
  across the entire Mid-South. Primary threats will be damaging
  and large hail with a secondary threat for a few tornadoes.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday.
  Otherwise, generally dry weather is expected on Thursday and
  over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A relatively calm and warm start to our day here in the Mid-South
so far with gusty south winds at the surface. However, this
"calm" will soon change as the latest 15Z surface analysis
indicates a stationary boundary bisecting the Mid-South and
several pretty stout shortwaves to our west and north. A slightly
negatively tilted trough is currently fixated over Kansas and
Nebraska with a pretty stout shortwave extending over Iowa and
central Missouri. At the surface, a low pressure system is co-
located with the shortwave over Iowa and central Missouri with an
attendant cold front. Ahead of these systems, a line convection
is moving over St. Louis Missouri's area. Warm air advection will
continue to overspread our forecast area throughout the day with
current surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Looking
at our parameter space, forecast soundings have upwards of
2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, around 40 kts of effective shear, mid-level
lapse rates 7.5+ C/km, and STP around 2-3 for the afternoon to
mid-afternoon hours. Forecast hodographs also have pretty decent
curvature to them indicative of potential strong, up to EF-
3 tornadoes. However, given the aforementioned parameters, we
will have a volatile environment for damaging winds (70+ mph) and
large hail (up to 2 inch diameter).

Note: a Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel for sustained winds around
25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph with a tight pressure gradient.
Blowing dust in these areas ahead of storms can not be ruled out
due to dry soils from a recent lack of rainfall.

A large question remains supercell potential with a pre-frontal
boundary currently indicated by satellite imagery over central
Arkansas. A few light showers have begun to form along this
boundary in Little Rock's area thus far. As this boundary moves
closer and over our area, the last several runs of CAMs indicate
supercells beginning to form as early as 1PM over northeast
Arkansas and continuing across the Mid-South through around
sunset. If these supercells do form, they will be moving over the
aforementioned environment capable of producing strong tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging winds. Uncertainty does still exist,
however, regarding afternoon supercells as CAMs have been
consistently struggling with the exact evolution of storms.
Bottom line, be prepared for this evolution as 700mb winds begin
to increase pretty rapidly around 3PM, indicative of a rapidly
increasing strong to severe storm environment.

Moving past sunset, severe thunderstorm potential increases as
the aforementioned cold front edges closer to our area. Forecast
hodographs have an even better curvature with STP values
increasing to near 5 and 0-6 km bulk wind shear increasing to
around 50 kts. The question with evening into the overnight
hour's severe weather remains the overall storm structure. We
could be looking at supercells eventually forming into a squall
line or a messy cluster over supercells continuing into the
overnight hours. Areas along the Missouri and Kentucky borders
have the highest potential to see up to EF-3 tornadoes as SPC has
highlighted this area in a level 2 hatched. Reason being, this is
the area where severe parameters will be the most robust and
where a potent shortwave looks to set up overnight. Severe
weather looks to finally exit the Mid-South by around 4/5AM.

The aforementioned cold front will stall over our area Tuesday
bringing another round of severe weather by mid-afternoon Tuesday
and into the early morning hours Wednesday. We will have another
pretty volatile environment with 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE, around
40 kts of effective shear, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km,
and SHIP values around 1.3, in accordance with forecast
soundings. Forecast hodographs do have less curvature to them,
indicating less of a tornado threat tomorrow. The overall storm
structure looks to have several bowing segments, especially over
north Mississippi. A few embedded discreet cells also look to
move across our area tomorrow. These discreet cells will have
more of a hail and tornado threat within them where the bowing
segments will have more of a damaging wind threat.

Through Wednesday morning, storm total rainfall amounts will be
around 2-3 inches across much of the area with locally higher
amounts. Luckily, we're not looking at much of a flooding threat
due to a recent lack of rainfall. By sunrise Wednesday, the cold
front will finally clear the Mid-South, bringing much calmer and
cooler weather. A few post-frontal showers can not be ruled out,
though nothing to write home about. Cooler temperatures in the
low 70s to low 80s are expected Wednesday with even cooler
temperatures by Thursday. Another shortwave will eject in front
the west late Thursday increasing rain chances once again, though
thunderstorms are not anticipated as our environment will be
pretty stable. Behind this next system, we're looking cool and
dry for the weekend as high pressure falls over the region.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon due to a mid-
level cap. This cap is finally eroding, allowing convection to
increase in coverage. While this activity will be more
scattered/discrete, more organized storms are expected to move
southeast into the CWA late this evening into the early morning
hours. This activity will have the potential for hail, damaging
wind, and even a few tornadoes, winding down late tonight with a
lull in precipitation chances Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings are
expected across much of the area between 12-18z. The NBM is even
indicating ~25% chance of IFR, but the HREF is much lower at ~10%
(more likely). Another round of TSRA is expected on Tuesday
afternoon. This round of storms will also be potentially severe,
especially along and south of I-40.

The MKL and JBR ASOS continue to report -RA despite no radar
echoes in the area. This is likely due to spider webs causing
erroneous readings at these sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upcoming showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will keep
minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast
period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire danger is
expected to be low through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ007-008-010>012-280000-
Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-Tate MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN COAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN TUNICA...SOUTHWESTERN TATE...NORTHERN QUITMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonestown, or 13 miles southeast of Helena-West Helena, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jonestown, Crenshaw, Sledge, Phillipp, Strayhorn, Dubbs, Dundee,
Little Texas, Lula, Falcon, Askew, Gerlach Mill, Moon, Buxton,
Savage, Prichard, Sarah, Matagorda, Rich, and Cypress Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 9020 3473 9020 3474 9018 3451 8996
      3428 9044 3443 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 234DEG 34KT 3440 9044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ007-008-011-012-280030-
Tunica MS-Tate MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TUNICA...
SOUTHEASTERN TATE...NORTHEASTERN QUITMAN AND NORTHERN PANOLA COUNTIES
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crenshaw, or 16 miles southwest of Senatobia, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Senatobia, Sardis, Coldwater, Como, Crenshaw, Sledge, Pleasant Grove,
Falcon, Askew, Gerlach Mill, Looxahoma, Buxton, Crossroad, McGhee,
Longtown, Tibbs, Ballentine, Sarah, Poagville, and Hayes Crossing.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 252
and 270.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8985 3447 8972 3446 8972 3435 9025
      3453 9035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 247DEG 34KT 3447 9022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
739 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ011-012-020-021-280115-
Tallahatchie MS-Panola MS-Yalobusha MS-Quitman MS-
739 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL YALOBUSHA...
NORTHERN TALLAHATCHIE...SOUTHEASTERN QUITMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sumner, or 15 miles west of Charleston, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Charleston, George Payne State Park, Tutwiler, Crowder,
Webb, Sumner, Pope, Enid, Vance, Oakland, Courtland, Mims, Denton,
Mikoma, Stover, Longstreet, Asa, Tillatoba, and Waverly.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 221
and 237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 9039 3408 9044 3432 8998 3399 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 255DEG 36KT 3402 9033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
857 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MSZ002-003-280230-
Marshall MS-Benton MS-
857 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 856 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wall Doxey State Park, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wall Doxey State Park, Hickory Flat, Potts Camp, Malone, Winborn,
Waterford, Galena, Waites, and Lake Center.

This includes Interstate 22 in Mississipppi between mile markers 34
and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8959 3480 8926 3460 8916 3460 8924
      3458 8925 3456 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 254DEG 30KT 3462 8952

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJC