Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
110 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- A cold front will provide a focus for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms, then diminishing this evening.

- An unsettled weather pattern will persist through early next
  week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms,
  though severe weather probabilities remain low.

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs
  in the low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

12Z upper air analysis depicted a weak mid-level shortwave trough
moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Late morning surface
analysis showed a weak cold front stretching from the Ohio Valley
back through western portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a line of
showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Memphis metro area
southeast into portions of northeast Mississippi. Noon
temperatures range from the 70s in the rain-cooled air along the
I-40 corridor, and 80s elsewhere.

Hourly mesoanalysis yields surface based CAPE values between 3000-
4000 J/g, weak shear between 20-25 kts, weak low to mid-level
lapse rates, and precipitable water values around 1.9 inches over
north Mississippi in areas that haven't received any rain thus
far. Latest CAMs suggest this activity will continue to develop
and spread south across the remainder of north Mississippi into
this afternoon. An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm
or two will be possible into this afternoon mostly over northeast
Mississippi. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the predominant threats.

Short-term model trends suggest a couple of MCSs will develop
upstream over portions of the Central Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley. One will occur later tonight and weaken as it
approaches the Mid-South on Saturday, with a second one arriving
later Saturday night into early Sunday morning. LREF joint
probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg
and shear in excess of 30 kts will average at best between 20-30%
near the Missouri and Kentucky border Saturday evening. Damaging
wind gusts are the primary threat for any severe thunderstorms
Saturday evening into early Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday are
expected to rise into the lower to perhaps middle 90s with heat
index values between 100 to 104 degrees over portions of
northwest Mississippi. Confidence remains low for reaching Heat
Advisory criteria, but will reevaluate if short-term forecast
trends warrant a change.

Long term model trends indicate an unsettled pattern will persist
across the Mid-South into next week as an upper-level trough
encompasses the eastern half of the U.S. This will bring a
continuation of daily shower and thunderstorm chances, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. We'll be monitoring
trends for a potential organized severe weather by the middle of
next week as a stronger shortwave trough moves through the Middle
and Lower Mississippi Valleys. LREF joint probabilities of
surface-based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg and shear in
excess of 30 kts increase to 30-40% by Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms continues to push south of MEM and
MKL, with impacts expected at TUP between 20-23Z. Primary
concerns include MVFR ceilings and north winds of 10-15 kts,
gusting to around 20 kts. As the atmosphere recovers, a second
round of showers and storms remains possible at MEM and MKL later
this afternoon. Convective coverage will diminish after sunset,
leading to VFR conditions and light winds after 00Z through the
remainder of the period. While additional storms are possible
late tomorrow, confidence is currently below 30% and will be
excluded from the MEM TAF for this cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this
forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist
through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Bartlett            35.20N 89.84W
06/12/2026                   Shelby             TN   Trained Spotter

            Flooding reported on Kirby Whitten Rd north
            of I-40.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Lakeland          35.23N 89.75W
06/12/2026                   Shelby             TN   Public

            water covering roads in the Davies
            Plantation area, specifically St Phillip
            Drive and Anderson Springs Drive. Photo from
            social media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Midtown Memphis     35.14N 89.97W
06/12/2026                   Shelby             TN   NWS Employee

            NWS employee reported road closures due to
            significant flooding at Poplar and
            Union/Walnut Grove in Midtown.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
129 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Southaven         34.99N 90.01W
06/12/2026                   DeSoto             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Stateline Rd between Whitworth and
            Millbranch is closed due to flooding. There
            are also reports of flooding on Stateline Rd
            near Horn Lake Rd.

&&