Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
548 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- A cold front will move into the region today, bringing showers
  and thunderstorms through this evening.

- An unsettled weather pattern will persist through early next
  week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms,
  though severe weather probabilities remain low.

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs
  in the low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

930 PM surface observations depict a frontal boundary stretching
from the Texas Panhandle northeast into the Great Lakes. This
boundary will continue on a southeast trajectory overnight,
bringing showers and thunderstorms into the Mid-South by 5AM.
Given lack luster bulk shear, the potential for this activity to
become severe is low (around 10 percent). However, residual
SBCAPE and lapse rates around 6.5 C/km may encourage a few strong
storms in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Should
this occur, gusty winds will be the primary concern.
Rain chances will persist through Friday as the aforementioned
front stalls over central Mississippi. Additional precipitation
chances will manifest on Saturday as this boundary returns north
as a warm front. The 00Z CAMs suite depicts the majority of the
Mid-South staying dry as this occurs, but ensemble members remain
consistent in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm coverage
through the evening hours.

Broad upper level troughing will begin to develop over CONUS on
Sunday, allowing another cold front to eject towards the Mid-
South. The LREF places a 10 to 15 percent chance of overlapping
severe weather ingredients Sunday afternoon as this boundary
pushes across the area. This setup will feature bulk shear around
40 kts and SBCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. This environment will
support better storm organization along the front, though poor
lapse rates should limit storms to mainly a damaging wind threat.
The bigger story will be unseasonably cool air that lasts into
the middle of next week. Afternoon highs will be in the low to
mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday, which is around 10 degrees below
normal.

Long range guidance places additional rain chances for the end of
next week as an upper level low develops over TX. However, run to
run inconsistencies remain so expect a potential wet end to the
work week with temperatures increasing to near normal.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms is currently making its way
southward into the region and will continue to progress south
through this afternoon, bringing the potential for MVFR impacts
at all four terminals. The coverage of impacts is still too low
to prevail so have maintained TEMPO groups at each terminal. As
the initial line of convection pushes south, guidance indicates
that enough clearing may occur to produce a second round of
showers and storms at MEM/MKL late this afternoon. Regardless,
convective coverage will diminish in coverage during and after
sunset with VFR conditions and light winds expected after 00z
through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this
forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist
through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Bartlett            35.20N 89.84W
06/12/2026                   Shelby             TN   Trained Spotter

            Flooding reported on Kirby Whitten Rd north
            of I-40.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Lakeland          35.23N 89.75W
06/12/2026                   Shelby             TN   Public

            water covering roads in the Davies
            Plantation area, specifically St Phillip
            Drive and Anderson Springs Drive. Photo from
            social media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Midtown Memphis     35.14N 89.97W
06/12/2026                   Shelby             TN   NWS Employee

            NWS employee reported road closures due to
            significant flooding at Poplar and
            Union/Walnut Grove in Midtown.

&&