Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon, with the
  best chances (40-50%) in the higher terrain and lower chances
  (20-30%) across mainly the western two-thirds of the area. Some
  storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
  rainfall.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop each day over
  western portions of the region Friday through at least Sunday,
  with the best chances favored over the higher terrain.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into
  next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

An upper-level ridge is currently centered over southeastern
portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface trough extends across
western portions of the Permian Basin into the Trans-Pecos. A few
showers and light thunderstorms developed this morning near the axis
of this surface trough. Additional shower and storm development is
expected later this afternoon along this feature, as well as in the
higher terrain thanks to upslope flow and weak disturbances rounding
the western periphery of the ridge. The highest chances (40-50%)
will be in/near the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau, with lower
chances (20-30%) across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin
(mainly the western two-thirds), the Trans-Pecos, the Big Bend, and
the Presidio Valley. Easternmost counties remain mostly dry today
due to their relative proximity to the ridge, though a couple of
isolated, short-lived showers or storms cannot be totally ruled out.
Similar to previous days, storms that develop could produce strong
to severe winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall that may lead to
localized flash flooding. Temperatures largely top out in the upper
90s to just above 100 degrees (low 90s in the higher terrain). Lows
tonight end up in the low-to-mid 70s for most locations.

Surface troughing hangs around Friday, but the ridge starts to shift
slightly westward (though the highest heights remain well to our
east). As a result, the best moisture and lift (and therefore PoPs)
are displaced a bit farther to the west as well. The highest rain
chances (40-50%) will once again be in the Davis Mountains, with 10-
30% chances confined mainly to southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans-
Pecos, the Stockton Plateau, the Big Bend, and the Presidio Valley
(with perhaps a storm or two sneaking into the far western Permian
Basin). Highs end up in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations
again, though 100 degree temperatures become a bit more confined to
the river valleys.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Models have been consistent with showing the broad upper-level ridge
retrograding to the west over much of the southern CONUS this
weekend and becoming dominant through the middle part of next week.
This feature will continue to yield above normal temperatures each
day, with afternoon highs in the upper 90s for most. Though spots
along the Pecos River and Rio Grande Valleys can expect to see
maximum temperatures above the century mark. Cooler tempertures in
the upper 80s to low 90s can be found in the mountains. Moist
southeasterly upslope flow and maybe some minor disturbances in the
flow aloft could bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the western higher terrain each afternoon
through at least Sunday. After Sunday, shower and storm chances
become less likely, but not completely out of question. Otherwise,
the remainder of the area remains dry through the extended as
sinking motion under the ridge inhibits convective initiation. Low
tempertures continue to range in the 60s in the mountains and 70s
elsewhere.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

TS continues across the Permian Basin with gusty outflow winds and
periodic reductions in visibilities. This will mainly affect
KINK/KMAF through 03Z. Storms will generally dissipate thereafter
with southerly winds around 10 kts and VFR prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 101  74  99 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74  99  73  99 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                   76 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  97  73  96 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                    72  98  71  97 /  20  20  20   0
Marfa                    64  90  63  90 /  20  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     75  98  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   76  98  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     75 100  75  99 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

TXZ045-046-140015-
Dawson TX-Gaines TX-
627 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ANDREWS...GAINES
AND DAWSON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
mainly within Gaines County, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamesa, Seminole, Seagraves, Seagraves Airport, Lamesa Municipal
Airport, Gaines County Airport, Welch, Los Ybanez, Loop, Punkin
Center, Patricia, Arvana, McKenzie Lake, Tenmile, Paynes Corner,
Gaines County Park, and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10188 3252 10287 3296 10286 3296 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 194DEG 16KT 3259 10240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
721 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

TXZ045-140100-
Gaines TX-
721 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GAINES COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Gaines County Airport, or 15 miles southeast of
Seminole, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McKenzie Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 10221 3253 10221 3252 10255 3279 10258
      3285 10239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 186DEG 21KT 3260 10243

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95

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