Flash Flood Warning 173, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms develop each afternoon over western
  portions of the region through Sunday. Some storms may produce
  strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to
  localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into
  next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the
southeastern CONUS, deflecting warmer conditions away from West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  As such, highs this afternoon
should average only 7-9 F above climatology.  Upslope flow will work
in tandem w/instability and abundant moisture out west to produce
afternoon convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos.

Tonight, unfortunately, unseasonably warm minimums continue, mainly
due to a LLJ approaching 35 kts, and plenty of mid/high cloud.  Lows
should average ~ 6-8 F above normal.  Most convection should
diminish during the evening after peak heating concludes.

Saturday, thicknesses come down a bit as an upper trough moves west
through Chihuahua, grazing the Big Bend Area.  This may shave a
degree or so off of today's highs.  Unfortunately, these troughs
aren't known to be great rainmakers.  Instead, upslope flow will
once again result in an afternoon of convection, mainly along and
west of the Pecos.

Saturday night looks like a repeat of tonight, only maybe a degree
or so cooler to less cloud cover.  Convection should likewise
diminish during the evening.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Sunday and Monday will be very similar to the last few days with
highs in the 90s to around 100F for most and isolated storms over
the higher terrain. Heading into the middle of the coming week, the
ridge that has been meandering across the US will flatten out over
the southeastern US and the Gulf. This will not change temperatures
much as highs will remain above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s
for most. It will dry the region out and push rain chances to below
5% each day. Continued southerly/southeasterly flow persists and
that may lead to a storm or two developing in the vicinity of any of
the mountainous zones in the area. Overnight lows in the 60s to 70s
can be expected each night through the extended.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in modest return flow,
with a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a cu field late
morning Saturday invof KMAF/KFST/KCNM, w/bases ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL.
Convective chances are too low any terminals for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 100  73  98 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  91  68  89 /  10  30  10  10
Hobbs                    71  98  70  97 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                    63  90  62  89 /  10  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

TXZ075-142045-
Pecos TX-
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles south of Fort Stockton, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 10284 3052 10310 3076 10322 3087 10302
      3079 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 170DEG 20KT 3063 10296

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
319 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

TXZ075-274-278-142100-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
319 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PECOS...NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES AND EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Alpine, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Pecos,
north central Brewster, south central Reeves and east central Jeff
Davis Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 223 and 235.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 10323 3046 10344 3095 10359 3100 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 161DEG 8KT 3054 10336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
320 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

TXZ075-278-142100-
Pecos TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
320 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PECOS...NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER AND EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Alpine, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Pecos,
north central Brewster and eastern Jeff Davis Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 10323 3044 10348 3058 10356 3072 10339
      3060 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 161DEG 8KT 3054 10336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95