Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Temperatures largely remain above normal through the weekend and
  into next week. Some locations will be near or above 100
  degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-30%) afternoon and evening
  showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis
  Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big
  Bend today. Isolated storms may also develop over parts of
  southeast New Mexico and the far western Permian Basin. Dry
  weather conditions continue over the rest of the region.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop each day over
  western portions of the region Thursday through the weekend,
  with the best chances favored over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level ridge extending from far
west Texas to the Gulf Coast states and is expected to continue
shifting eastward. Meanwhile, a surface trough stretches from the
central High Plains to southeast New Mexico and the Big Bend. This
yields highs near to just above the century mark across much of
southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos. Some spots
along the Rio Grande can expect to see temperatures top out between
105 and 108 degrees this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms (20-30% coverage) is forecast to develop over the
Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and across portions of the
Big Bend/Presidio Valley region this afternoon and evening. This is
due to increased moisture along the surface trough and a shortwave
impulse that moves within the flow aloft on the western periphery of
the upper-level ridge. There is also a low (10-15%) chance of
isolated convection across portions of southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, and Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains in
association with these features. A few storms will be capable of
producing brief heavy rainfall/wind gusts and frequent lightning. We
cannot rule out the possibility of a fire ignition due to dry
lighting as well. Convective coverage is expected to diminish into
the early evening hours.

By Thursday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge shifts farther to
the east, becoming centered over the Gulf Coast states.
Simultaneously, the surface trough continues to extend across
similar areas as today. Abundant moisture along this feature will
favor the development of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
across similar areas as today. The best chances (30-50% coverage)
remain over the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and the
Trans Pecos. Though chances are lower, convective development could
occur over the Big Bend, Presidio Valley, Van Horn corridor,
portions of southeast New Mexico, and the western Permian Basin. A
few storms could again produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
brief heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the eastern zones of our forecast
area should remain dry due to its close proximity to the ridge.
Afternoon highs are forecast to be similar as today's, though many
spots across our western zones cool a couple of degrees as the ridge
axis becomes situated farther east.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Temperatures tick down Friday and Saturday as the upper-level ridge
sets up over the southeastern CONUS. Highs generally top out in the
mid-to-upper 90s, with 100 degree temperatures becoming less
widespread and more confined to the river valleys. By the latter
half of the weekend and into next week, the ridge begins to shift
westward again. As a result, temperatures start to trend back up by
Sunday through at least the middle part of next week. As far as rain
chances go, upslope flow and a shortwave moving along the western
periphery of the ridge will allow scattered showers and storms to
once again develop in and around the higher terrain through the
weekend. Chances range from 10-40% for portions of the Upper Trans-
Pecos, Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and Presidio Valley, with
higher chances (40-60%) in/near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau. Rain chances decrease early next week thanks to increasing
subsidence and decreasing moisture as the ridge shifts westward. By
Monday, only low PoPs (10-30%) are maintained for far western
portions of the region and in the Davis Mountains, and by Tuesday
chances drop to about 10% for these same areas.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours and
south/southeast winds continue. A few TSRA is forecast to develop in
the Trans Pecos this afternoon, though there is uncertainty in
impacts of airport operations. To account for this, have opted to
include PROB30 for TSRA at KFST between 20-24Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 102  76 100 /   0  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 75 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   77 102  76  99 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            75  99  74  97 /  10  30   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                    72 100  72  98 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                    65  91  64  90 /  10  40  10  60
Midland Intl Airport     76 100  76  98 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   77 100  76  98 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     76 101  75  99 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55