Flash Flood Warning 166, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

959 
WGUS74 KMAF 120207
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
907 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

TXC243-120400-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0166.000000T0000Z-260812T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
907 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 907 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to
0.75 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  McDonald Observatory, Davis Mountains State Park and Black
  Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 10412 3075 10384 3062 10385 3061 10397
      3061 10408

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25-0.75 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue across the region through
  this week and into the weekend. Some locations will be near or
  above 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40%) afternoon and evening
  showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis
  Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big
  Bend today and Wednesday. Dry weather conditions continue over
  the rest of the region.

- Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered in coverage over
  western portions of the region by mid to late week, especially
  near the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid-to-upper ridge extending from
the Four Corners region through the central/southern Plains and
southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface trough stretches from the
central High Plains to southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This
yields breezy conditions and very warm tempertures this afternoon.
Highs are forecast to range in the upper 90s to lower triple digits
for most, with the hottest tempertures confined mostly to the river
valleys. By Wednesday, the upper ridge builds eastward and many
spots see afternoon highs 2-3 degrees warmer than today's. Moist
upslope flow brings chances (10-40%) of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton
Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend this afternoon/evening and
again on Wednesday. Brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small
hail, and gusty winds are anticipated to be the main hazards with
any storms that develop. Otherwise, sinking motion under the ridge
keeps the rest of the area dry.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward and become
centered over the Gulf Coast states late this week as a trough
develops over the western CONUS. Tempertures remain slightly above
normal as we remain on the western edge of the ridge. Highs in the
mid 90s to lower triple digits are expected Thursday and Friday.
Though triple digit temperatures become confined to portions of the
Trans Pecos and along the Big Bend on Friday. Afternoon/evening
shower and thunderstorm chances (20-60%) increase late this week
across the western higher terrain as shortwave impulses move
through southwest flow aloft. These chances expand from southeast
New Mexico to the Rio Grande, with the best chances (50-70%) over
the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Dry conditions are maintained
across the eastern half of our CWA due to its closer proximity to
the ridge. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lighting, and gusty
winds will be the main hazards with the strongest of storms. Long-
range model guidance and cluster analysis shows the upper-level
ridge building back to the west this weekend. As such, the latest
forecast shows a decrease in storm chances and become mainly
confined to the higher terrain.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR prevails through the period. Look for gusty southeast winds
this evening through about 12/07Z before decreasing. Isolated TS
are again possible Wednesday, with KFST seeing the best chance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 102  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 102  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                   76 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 100  74  98 /   0  20  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           70  91  68  89 /   0   0  20  10
Hobbs                    72 101  72  99 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    65  92  65  91 /  10  20  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  76  99 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   75 100  76  99 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     76 102  75 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29