Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Generally hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday
  with only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms,
  mainly in and around the higher terrain and towards the Lower
  Trans-Pecos.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through
  the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough slowly ejecting
northeast, and centered over southwest Wyoming, maintaining
southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This
feature is forecast to nudge up to the Canadian border by early
Monday morning, leaving the synoptic pattern closer to home
relatively static.  Cloud cover is expected to diminish this
afternoon NW-SE, and will assist downslope warming from
southwesterly surface winds to add 3-4 F to yesterday's
highs...which would be 4-5 F above climatology.  These surface winds
will mix the dryline east, leaving only a small window of
opportunity for isolated convection over the lower Trans Pecos.

CAMs diminish this convection shortly after sundown.  The LLJ
doesn't look to be as strong as last night's, and will combine with
clearing skies and lower dewpoints to yield overnight minimums that,
while still above normal, will be at least ~ 2-4 F cooler than this
morning's, which felt like Houston on a dry day.

Sunday, boundary layer moisture will encroach further into the CWA,
the 50+ isodrosotherms all the way into Southeast New Mexico, and
the dryline diffuse/nonexistent.  Despite this, thicknesses will
continue increasing, resulting in possibly the warmest day this
forecast as highs plateau a good 6-8 F above normal, with even
triple digits in a couple of choice locations in the Pecos River
Valley.  A shortwave moving up through Sonora/Chihuahua will open up
a chance of convection from the Presidio Vally/Big Bend through the
Davis Mountains.

This activity should taper off to the northeast shortly after
sundown. Lows Sunday night should be similar to tonight's, if not
a degree warmer due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Warm and relatively dry conditions persist Monday. Much like Sunday,
temperatures top out in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations
(some low 100s in typical warm spots). Low rain chances (10-40%) are
confined mainly to the higher terrain west of the Pecos River.
However, the pattern changes once again beginning Tuesday. Upper-
level troughing develops out west and slowly moves towards west
Texas and southeast New Mexico next week. As a result, ridging
becomes displaced farther east and southwesterly flow aloft begins
developing over the region. Meanwhile, moisture also increases again
across the area (models indicate PWATs will be generally in the 1.0-
1.5 inch range). Because of this, rain chances begin to increase
mainly out west Tuesday afternoon/evening, shifting over the rest of
the area through the week. Some model disagreement still remains at
this time (for instance, the ECMWF ensemble has tended to be more
optimistic with rainfall totals than the GEFS, especially for
eastern parts of the area). Nevertheless, the overall pattern
supports increasing rain chances across the area next week. During
this time, we will be keeping a close eye on the flash flooding
potential, especially considering the very rich atmospheric moisture
that will be in place. Increased cloud cover will help keep
temperatures largely in the 80s, which is below normal for early
June. This cloud cover will also help limit instability, which
(combined with relatively weak deep-layer shear) will likewise
help limit the severe weather potential.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Any TS will remain east of the terminals through this evening.
Expect southeast winds to return everywhere with a weak front
providing a north wind briefly Sunday morning at KCNM. More
widespread TSRA is expected toward the end of this period and will
be included in later issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  98  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 61  99  66 100 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   71  97  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            67  98  68  97 /   0  40   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  88  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    61  97  64  96 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                    57  91  56  92 /   0  40   0  40
Midland Intl Airport     67  97  68  95 /   0  20   0   0
Odessa                   68  97  68  95 /   0  20   0   0
Wink                     66  99  68  98 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

TXZ075-302330-
Pecos TX-
541 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTHERN
TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Sheffield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iraan and Iraan Municipal Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 307 and 327.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 10198 3066 10206 3083 10220 3098 10198
      3096 10195 3095 10193 3093 10192 3092 10188
      3089 10189 3086 10185 3080 10183 3076 10184
      3075 10182 3071 10181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 232DEG 26KT 3080 10203

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

TXZ075-082-302330-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
542 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PECOS AND
NORTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 16 miles northeast of Sanderson, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell County Gas Plant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 10231 3040 10247 3071 10203 3039 10174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 232DEG 26KT 3036 10229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

TXZ075-082-310015-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Sheffield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sheffield, Iraan, and Iraan Municipal Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 314 and 327.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3060 10203 3072 10212 3093 10190 3092 10188
      3089 10189 3086 10185 3080 10183 3076 10184
      3074 10181 3070 10181 3068 10178 3066 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 240DEG 26KT 3072 10195

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95