Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- A few severe storms will be possible across portions of
  southeast New Mexico and across the Lower Trans Pecos. Large
  hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two may be seen with the
  most organized storms.

- Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter
  half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A line of storms stretching from the northern Permian Basin south
into Terrell County continues to slowly move to the east bringing 1-
2" of rain with locally higher amounts to many locations. As this
activity clears out, daytime heating over southeast New Mexico, the
Davis Mountains, and areas generally south of I-10 may see new
isolated storms develop. A few may become strong to severe with
large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two being the main
threats out of the most organized storms. Afternoon activity will
dissipate or move out of the area by after sunset this evening.
Temperatures settle below normal into the 50s and 60s tonight. With
the aforementioned upper level disturbance moving off to the
northeast, temperatures warm up into the 80s for most with 90s down
along the Rio Grande. Isolated storms once again develop over the
Davis Mountains and into southeast New Mexico. However, less upper
level support will limit just how intense and how long lasting most
of this activity will be. Bouts of heavy rain, lightning, small
hail, and gusty winds will accompany some of this convection.
Wednesday night temperatures fall just below normal in the 50s and
60s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper-level ridging continues to build into the region on Thursday,
yielding afternoon highs in the 80s for most (90s near/along the Rio
Grande). By Friday, shortwave impulses embedded in southwest flow
aloft coupled with increased moisture and dryline forcing brings low
to medium (generally 20-50%) chances of isolated to scattered
showers/storms across much of the area. Guidance shows a similar
pattern going into the weekend and early next week, keeping chances
(10-40%) of rain in the forecast. It is important to note that there
is uncertainty in timing, amounts, and severity of activity at the
moment. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends over the next
several days and adjust the forecast accordingly. Otherwise,
afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s can continue to be expected.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR is expected to remain prevalent through the period. Isolated
TSRA just south of KCNM at 2330Z should move out of the vicinity
shortly. A few SHRA/TSRA from Eddy County down to the Davis
Mountains may progress east for the next 2-3 hours before a
weakening trend is anticipated after sunset. Confidence was low
enough to keep mention out of KPEQ and KINK for now but will amend
if necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  82  62  86 /  30  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 57  84  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  87  67  90 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            59  86  63  89 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  78  60  80 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    54  82  57  85 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  84  52  88 /   0  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  82  62  85 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   59  82  62  86 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     58  84  62  87 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
711 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ273-274-278-270100-
Eastern Culberson County TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
711 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN REEVES...NORTHERN
JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Kent, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toyah.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 181 and 197.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 0 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 10415 3138 10371 3102 10372 3103 10405
      3104 10405 3103 10406 3105 10408 3103 10410
      3103 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 278DEG 18KT 3125 10408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

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