River Flood Warning 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall
  and a continued risk of flash flooding over the southwest
  mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much
  of the southeast New Mexico Plains through this morning.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the
  remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

- Another storm system looks to bring the return of cooler
  temperatures and rain chances to our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Satellite and radar imagery as of 1:30 AM CDT shows light to
moderate rain showers across portions of southeast New Mexico and
far West Texas. A round of numerous to widespread showers/storms are
expected mainly across southeast New Mexico later tonight as a
shortwave trough moves through. This round looks to last through the
morning and move quickly to the northeast still bringing the threat
of flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit
of rainfall over the past couple of days. Heading into this
afternoon, southwesterly flow aloft and inverted surface troughing
will provide additional showers and thunderstorms for similar areas.
Less coverage of showers/storms are anticipated as favorable
troughing lifts northeast of the region. Forecast soundings depict
inverted-V profiles, abundant deep-layer shear, "skinny" CAPE
profiles, and continued high PWATs signal heavy rainfall and gusty
winds with these storms. High resolution guidance seems to be
overdoing instability parameters due to having cloud cover exiting
the region very quickly. Plentiful moisture in the mid to lower
levels of the atmosphere will likely keep cloud cover throughout the
morning to early afternoon hours, limiting strong daytime heating to
occur. Most locations are forecast to stay in the 80s besides areas
across the far eastern half of the region and river valleys being in
the low 90s where less cloud coverage is expected.

Tonight, lingering isolated to scattered (10-30%) showers and storms
from far west Texas and southeast New Mexico move eastward into
portions of west Texas. Lows drop in the 60s to low 70s for most
locations. Saturday, weak upper-level ridging begins to build back
into the region, supplying warmer and drier conditions for most.
Weak disturbances aloft combined with surface troughing and upslope
flow induces isolated to widely scattered storm development during
the afternoon/evening across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos,
and Big Bend region. High temperatures rebound back in the upper 80s
to mid 90s regionwide. The warmer and drier weather pattern persists
on Sunday before more active and cooler weather takes shape next
week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Weak upper-level ridging over the region will allow warmer and drier
conditions to continue on Sunday. High temperatures are expected to
range from the upper 80s to mid 90s for most locations. A low chance
(10-20%) of isolated storms is prevalent across the Davis Mountains,
thanks to upslope winds. A more active weather pattern is in store
beginning on Monday as another upper-level system approaches the
area. Long-range guidance has what is going to be the remnants of
Hurricane Polo, will eventually be pulled into the aforementioned
system supplying more moisture to the region. As a result, areawide
rain chances are expected by Monday night lasting through Wednesday.
Ensemble guidance also suggests PWATs reaching near and even
exceeding daily maximum climatological values Tuesday evening.
Therefore, the threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
returns. Uncertainty still remains in timing, positioning, and
impacts of the potential heavy rainfall. We will continue to monitor
this upcoming system closely. A Pacific front is forecast to move
through the region sometime on Wednesday bringing breezy westerly
winds and cooler temperatures spanning from the upper 70s to 80s.
Drier and slightly warm temperatures (mid to upper 80s) are expected
behind the front Thursday and Friday.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

TSRA will continue to move across the SE NM terminals this morning
with heavy RA reducing visibilities. Once this round of storms
clears, VFR will return and prevail through the period. More
storms are possible this afternoon, but confidence in location and
timing remains low ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  70  94  70 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                 83  62  88  64 /  30  30  10   0
Dryden                   92  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            89  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           76  62  80  63 /  50  20  10   0
Hobbs                    82  65  89  65 /  40  20   0   0
Marfa                    82  59  85  59 /  20  30  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     88  70  92  70 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                   87  71  91  71 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                     87  69  92  69 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

NMZ028-TXZ273-251030-
Eddy County Plains NM-Eastern Culberson County TX-
453 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EDDY AND
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM CDT/430 AM MDT/...

At 453 AM CDT/353 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles south of Whites City, or 25 miles south of
Carlsbad, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Malaga, Whites City, Carlsbad Caverns National
Park, and Cavern City Air Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 10428 3208 10455 3243 10439 3216 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0953Z 222DEG 28KT 3204 10432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
425 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

NMZ028-029-033-034-251100-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Northern Lea County NM-
Central Lea County NM-
425 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND
NORTHWESTERN LEA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM MDT...

At 425 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Maljamar to 19 miles northeast
of Loving. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Maljamar, Lea County Zip Franklin Memorial Airport, Halfway, and Loco
Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 10363 3236 10334 3237 10387 3285 10400
      3297 10390 3297 10376 3313 10377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 243DEG 26KT 3281 10393 3246 10384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

NMZ028-034-251100-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-
430 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA AND NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM MDT...

At 430 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Malaga, or 17 miles southeast of Carlsbad, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Malaga, Otis, and Cavern City Air Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 10408 3222 10340 3200 10403 3200 10414
      3218 10435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 234DEG 23KT 3217 10410

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

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