River Flood Warning 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall
  and a continued risk of flash flooding over the southwest
  mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much
  of the southeast New Mexico Plains through tomorrow morning.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the
  remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

- Another storm system looks to bring the return of cooler
  temperatures and rain chances to our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Current water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show an upper
trough centered near SoCal, while an upper ridge is centered near
southeast Texas. Wedged between these features, moisture continues
to surge toward our region within southwesterly flow aloft. A series
of shortwaves embedded within the flow leads to additional shower/
storm development over SE NM and Far West Texas this afternoon
through tonight. Rain chances across the western half of our
region range from 10-60% this afternoon. The best (40-60%) chances
overlay SE NM and the higher terrain and surrounding areas in
west Texas. Rain chances tonight become 10-30% over the eastern
half of our region, while chances over the western half range from
40-70%, again favoring the westernmost counties. These areas have
already seen plentiful rainfall and occasions of flash flooding.
Ensemble data shows PWAT values of 1.25-1.6" over these areas this
afternoon through tomorrow morning, indicating a continued potential
for heavy rainfall. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
over SE NM, much of Far West Texas, and the Guadalupe Mountains
through early tomorrow morning. Rain chances gradually taper down
Friday into Friday night, as the upper trough begins to lift into
the central Plains. Low (10-30%) rain chances remain in the
forecast for much of the area Friday into Friday night, as lift
increases with the passing trough. Regarding temperatures, highs
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon largely reach the 80s to low
90s (easternmost counties). Temperatures both nights generally
cool to the 60s/70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Upper level flow becomes zonal Saturday as ridging builds back over
our region. Low to medium (10-40%) rain chances become restricted to
areas west of the Pecos River, mainly focused in/near the Davis
Mountains Saturday afternoon. Temperatures rebound into the 90s
across much of the region by Saturday afternoon, while 80s are
forecast over SE NM and the higher terrain. Ridging continues to
build Sunday, allowing for highs in the 90s to expand in coverage
and further limiting rain chances near the Davis'. Another upper
trough is progged to begin approaching our area Monday, bringing
better rain chances and a renewed concern for flash flooding
potential, especially in our western zones. The trough itself looks
to pass over our region Tuesday into Wednesday. As it stands, much
of the region will have the potential to see isolated to scattered
showers/storms Monday afternoon, again mainly favoring our western
counties. Rain chances increase areawide Monday night and remain in
the forecast through Wednesday. Given saturated soils in parts of
our area, flash flooding may be a hazard to monitor with this system
during events of heavy rainfall. Otherwise, lowering heights with
the trough, accompanied by an eventual cold front, send temperatures
on a cooling trend. Highs by Wednesday afternoon are forecast to
generally reach the 80s. Keep posted for any updates going forward
as this next system takes shape!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except KCNM/KHOB, which
could see a couple of hours of MVFR cigs Friday morning. Return
flow will remain relatively light, w/best chances for convection
overnight Southeast New Mexico terminals, and to a lesser extent,
KINK/KPEQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  91  70  93 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 64  83  64  88 /  70  40  30   0
Dryden                   73  92  73  93 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            69  88  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           61  76  61  79 /  80  50  30  10
Hobbs                    66  82  65  88 /  50  40  20   0
Marfa                    59  82  59  84 /  40  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     70  88  70  91 /  20  20  30  10
Odessa                   70  87  71  91 /  20  20  20  10
Wink                     70  86  69  91 /  30  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

NMZ027-028-250830-
Eddy County Plains NM-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County NM-
200 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY THROUGH
230 AM MDT...

At 159 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Lincoln National Forest, or 24 miles south of Hope,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hope, Brantley Lake State Park, Seven Rivers Airport, Lincoln
National Forest, and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3297 10480 3260 10422 3230 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 222DEG 28KT 3247 10487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94