Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

051 
WGUS74 KMAF 112100
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

TXC243-112245-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0091.000000T0000Z-260611T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Fort Davis, Davis Mountains State Park, McDonald Observatory,
  Indian Lodge, Fort Davis National Historical Site and Black
  Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 10378 3071 10383 3074 10394 3071 10404
      3059 10409 3051 10404 3056 10381

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

29

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist across the area today. The hottest
  temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will
  be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front
  brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our
  area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain
  chances become low to medium areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough moving across
northern portions of the CONUS. Closer to home, lee troughing is
evident at the surface. This, along with a low-level jet, has helped
keep southerly winds breezy this morning especially across the
eastern half of the area. Today's forecast is largely similar to
yesterday's. Hot temperatures (mainly in the upper 90s and above 100
degrees) persist areawide under a broad area of upper-level high
pressure. Highs between 104-108 degrees will be common in the Pecos
River Valley and along the Rio Grande, with some locations once
again nearing 110 degrees along the international border. Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today,
mainly in and near the higher terrain west of the Pecos
(particularly in the Davis Mountains, where we have 20-40% PoPs).
While the overall severe threat is low, like yesterday a few
thunderstorms may become strong to marginally severe, capable of
producing gusty/damaging winds and/or some hail (generally up to the
size of quarters). Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash
flooding will also be possible.

This evening, a front approaches northern portions of our area,
becoming diffuse near the CWA border. Additional showers and storms
will develop along this front and may track into our northernmost
counties tonight, but chances tend to be low (10-20%). Lows bottom
out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s again tonight. Southeasterly
winds bring more moisture across the area Friday. This helps keep
temperatures closer to seasonal norms (low-to-mid 90s in general).
Moist upslope flow allows rain chances to again increase in the
higher terrain west of the Pecos Friday afternoon and into the
evening (20-40% chances).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers/storms over the western portions of our region brought along
by a dryline Friday afternoon should diminish during the evening.
Upper level troughing over the northern half of the US and upper
ridging over northern Mexico result in zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, a surface low
developing over the central Plains and a surface high over the
eastern Gulf steers winds out of the south and southeast Saturday.
As a result, Saturday's highs will top out a few degrees warmer
compared to Friday's. Triple digit heat is expected near and along
the river valleys, while highs reach the upper 90s for almost
everyone else. Similar to Friday, isolated to scattered shower/storm
development will be possible over the higher terrain west of the
Pecos River Saturday afternoon.

The upper trough begins to deepen over the Plains and the Midwest
early next week, pushing a cold front toward our area. Where the
front ends up will significantly influence temperatures and rain
chances. For now, NBM shows the front reaching the northern portions
of our region sometime Sunday morning, then a reinforcing push
finally allows it to clear our area Monday night into Tuesday.
Given the slow-moving nature of this solution, temperatures and
rain chances may vary as we head through the next few days. Highs
Sunday are forecast to reach the upper 80s within our northernmost
counties and the higher terrain, with 90s for most of the region.
Cloud coverage and the advancing front brings highs mainly in the
80s Monday and Tuesday, although low 90s look to return to the
Pecos River valley Tuesday afternoon. Low to medium rain chances
span areawide Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. Warmer and drier
conditions return by midweek due to an upper ridge building back
over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southerly
to southeasterly breezy winds are expected to persist this TAF
period. A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau.
However, there is a bit of uncertainty in coverage and timing. As
such, have opted to include PROB30s for TS at FST and PEQ from 19Z-
00Z to account for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  96  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  97  70 101 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                   75  96  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  96  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           72  88  68  90 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                    69  94  68  97 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    63  91  61  91 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     74  94  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   73  94  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     74  96  72 100 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55