Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

810 
WGUS74 KMAF 052343
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
643 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXC371-443-060115-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260606T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
643 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES...

At 643 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen in some areas. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bakersfield, US Highway 190, and Interstate 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3013 10257 3010 10260 3014 10269 3039 10302
      3100 10265 3099 10241 3098 10207 3042 10203
      3027 10243

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Greening

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Heavy rainfall in showers/storms today and tomorrow will pose
  the risk for flash flooding in low-lying, sloped, and poor
  drainage regions and make roadways impassable in some spots.

- Much warmer weather by late weekend continuing into next week,
  with hazardous heat possible along the Rio Grande.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The unsettled weather persists from the end of the week into the
early weekend. The mid to upper disturbance over Baja CA will
continue to tighten into an upper low over northern MX today and
develop northeast. The lift and deep moisture convergence aloft
ahead of the upper low interacting with frictional convergence
from lee troughing at the surface over central parts of the
forecast area will result in 1 hr PoPs 25% to 45% developing from
the Marfa Plateau into southeast Permian Basin down to Terrell
County this evening into tonight, and 3 hr PoPs 35% to 55%
surrounded by 3 hr PoPs 25% to 35% from the Guadalupes into SE NM
plains. PWATs remain 2 standard deviations above normal and
ranging from at least 1.00" to 1.20" through the early weekend, so
any showers/storms that develop will continue to be efficient
rain producers, dropping at least a few tenths of an inch and up
to 0.50" to 1.00" where heavier and/or more training storms occur.
This will again pose flash flooding concerns for regions with
soils that have been saturated by previous days' rainfall, as well
as the usual low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions. CAPE
500-1000 J/kg, DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg, low RH in the lower
troposphere, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates with the
freezing layer beneath layer of maximum vertical velocity aloft
suggest stronger convective cores capable of small hail and strong
winds at the surface. However, west/southwest effective bulk
shear remaining weak (<25 knot) will limit organization and
longevity of stronger updrafts, and SPC does not have our area
outlooked in a region for severe weather. Highs today stay in the
80s F, 70s F higher elevations for most regions, while humid,
upslope southeast winds maintain dew point temperatures in the mid
50s to mid 60s F east of western higher terrain. Low-level lapse
rates are forecast to increase to 7-8 C/km while mid-level lapse
rates remain in the 6-7 C/km range this evening, and SRH may
briefly increase above 80 m2/s2. This suggests a landspout cannot
be ruled out today, especially near elevated terrain. However, the
primary risk will remain heavy rain within weak (<15 knot)
steering flow in the low to mid-levels, and severe convective
winds at the surface should be minimized by higher cloud bases
owing to inverted-V soundings. 3hr PoPs of 25% to 45% persist
overnight for the northern and eastern Permian Basin as high-res
CAMs and ensembles depict clusters of showers/storms over those
regions tonight. Of note, ensembles are more aggressive with a
messy storm mode northeast of the Marfa Plateau today and a more
clustered storm mode over the SE NM plains and northern Permian
Basin into eastern Permian Basin tonight. Lows fall into the upper
50s to mid 60s F once more as the humid air limits overnight
cooling.

Tomorrow, the upper low and accompanying lift and moisture
convergence develop farther off to the northeast, placing only the
easternmost Stockton Plateau and easternmost Permian Basin east
of the Midland-Odessa metro in a region of 3 hr PoPs 35% to 55%,
with a steep cutoff to the west and southwest. Ensembles are in
better agreement with 3 hr PoPs regarding development of a linear
storm mode across the eastern Permian Basin later in the day.
Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" and higher over the eastern
Stockton Plateau into easternmost Permian Basin are indicated,
with ponding of water and flash flooding possible in usual regions
prone to flash flooding. This will include roadways. Remember, if
you think you cannot cross water, trust your instinct. Turn
around, don't drown. SPC has Terrell County into eastern Permian
Basin in a MRGL risk tomorrow, mainly due to enhanced vertical
shear for organization/persistence of storms on the
south/southeast side of the upper low. However, the bulk of the
strongest storms should remain to the east of the forecast area,
even as large hail and locally strong winds cannot be ruled out,
along with a landspout near favorable storm/terrain boundaries
given adequate SRH in the 0-3km layer. Clearing skies as mid to
upper ridging builds in behind the upper low will allow highs to
rise into the mid to upper 80s F, 90s F along the Pecos River
valley and Rio Grande basin, while remaining in the 70s F for
higher elevations. Lows tomorrow night fall to similar values as
tonight, if not a few degrees warmer over southern and
southeasternmost regions of the forecast area, as the humid air
only entrenches itself more over the southeasternmost regions of
the forecast area. This humid air is not going away anytime soon.
Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Much warmer high temperatures and drier weather with near zero
rain chances the rest of the weekend into early next weekend: but
remaining humid over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell
County. That will be the story until the middle of next week.
Highs Sunday quickly rise back into the lower to mid 90s F, upper
90s to lower 100s F along the Pecos River valley and Presidio
Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend. While dew point
temperatures west of the dryline decrease as westerly winds west
of a diffuse dryline redevelop along and west of western higher
terrain and advect dew point temperatures in the 40s F back into
the region, 15 to 20 mph southerly winds maintain dew point
temperatures in the mid 50s to upper 60s F to the east, keeping a
humid airmass in place despite the near zero rain chances. With
hotter daytime temperatures, lows Sunday night struggle to fall
below 65F everywhere north and west of the Rio Grande basin into
Terrell County except for the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea
County, and struggle to fall below the the mid 70s F from the
Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. Mid to upper ridging and
accompanying large scale subsidence strengthens Monday, allowing
the zone of 100s F temperatures to expand across the SE NM plains
and Upper Trans Pecos, and 105F-110F temperatures to expand into
the Presidio Valley from the Big Bend. Dew point temperatures over
eastern parts of the area will remain similar to Sunday. All of
this will combine to generate hazardous heat from the Presidio
Valley into Big Bend, where heat advisories may be needed. Lows
stay similar to Sunday night.

A mid to upper wave over the Pacific NW deeps into the northern
Rockies beginning Tuesday, allowing disturbances to once again
clip the region as ridging breaks down. This will allow for
slightly cooler and more humid weather with still very warm highs
(in the 90s F, lower 100F Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans Pecos
as well as Presidio Valley into Big Bend) to return. Low 15% to
25% rain chances develop, mainly over the Marfa Plateau. This
pattern continues each afternoon/evening into the end of the week
as heating of elevated terrain and mountain/valley breezes
interact with lee troughing and disturbances aloft that provide
lift and moisture convergence. Timing of disturbances, setup of
synoptic and mesoscale features, and uncertainty regarding
storm/terrain interactions mean that exact details regarding
showers/storms remain unclear at this point. Highs will remain in
the 90s F for most until the end of the week, when hot
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s F and above return. Lows stay
in the mid 60s to mid 70s F, and each afternoon through
overnight, 15 to 25 mph southeast winds northeast of the Marfa
Plateau, Guadalupes, Upper Trans Pecos, and Marfa Plateau are
expected in a LLJ to the east of the troughing/dryline. So as the
central and eastern part of the area maintains a summer-like hot
and humid feel to the air, it will also maintain a late spring-
like wind pattern as we head into the middle of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions remain at all sites. Showers and storms return this
afternoon and continue into this evening. Outside of any
convection, winds remain between 10-15kts with occasional gusts.
Amendments may be needed based on radar trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  85  67  94 /  50  50  20   0
Carlsbad                 64  90  65 100 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                   67  90  69  96 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  89  67  99 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  81  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                    61  85  62  96 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                    53  84  55  93 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  85  67  94 /  50  20  10   0
Odessa                   64  85  67  95 /  50  10  10   0
Wink                     64  88  67  99 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
343 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ075-052115-
Pecos TX-
343 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 22 miles east of Fort Stockton to 29 miles
southwest of McCamey to 33 miles north of Sanderson. These storms
were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
County.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 281 and 295.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 10237 3083 10228 3062 10223 3057 10254
      3092 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 254DEG 4KT 3090 10251 3077 10247 3063 10247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
355 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ028-052230-
Eddy County Plains NM-
355 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 355 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whites City, or 12 miles south of Carlsbad, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Loving, Malaga, Whites City, Carlsbad Caverns National Park, and
Cavern City Air Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3217 10440 3233 10439 3233 10407 3214 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 267DEG 10KT 3223 10429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ028-TXZ273-052230-
Eddy County Plains NM-Eastern Culberson County TX-
503 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT/430 PM MDT/...

At 503 PM CDT/403 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles south of Whites City, or 27 miles east of Pine
Springs. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Eddy
and north central Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 10415 3189 10448 3209 10450 3208 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 189DEG 3KT 3198 10436

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG