Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

315 
WGUS74 KMAF 231932
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXC043-232100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260523T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brewster TX-
232 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Locations near and just east of Alpine, including near the
  intersection of U.S. Highways 67 and 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 10350 3044 10358 3040 10365 3032 10363
      3029 10355 3029 10343 3041 10340 3045 10344

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in store this afternoon
  and early evening. A storm or two may become strong to severe
  across the northern Permian Basin, posing a threat for large
  hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.

- Daily afternoon/evening shower/storm chances with locally heavy
  rainfall and risk of flooding in low-lying and poor drainage
  regions through this weekend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Current radar imagery shows lingering showers and storms
extending from the southern Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos.
This is thanks to an outflow boundary positioned over portions of
far southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin. Expect these showers
and storms to continue into the early morning hours and move east
of the area. Today, southwest flow aloft, broad surface low
pressure extending from the southern Rockies to far West Texas,
and a surface boundary just north of the region will bring
increased rain/storm chances (10- 40%) across much of the region.
A storm or two may become strong to severe over portions of the
northern Permian Basin this afternoon and early evening. Steep
mid-level lapse rates, sufficient wind shear, and plenty of
instability will pose a large hail and damaging wind threat for
any strong storms that develop. Persistent heavy rainfall from
training cells may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Tonight, a subtle upper-level ridge begins to build over the
region. Lows are forecast to span in the 50s to mid 60s for most
areas. Sunday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge supplies much
drier conditions across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A low
(10- 20%) chance for isolated storms exist over the Davis
Mountains during the afternoon, thanks to upslope flow. Severe
storms are not expected, though cannot rule out a damaging wind
threat with the strongest storm. High temperatures are forecast to
range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across most locations during
Memorial Day weekend.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An unsettled weather pattern from the end of this weekend into
the middle of the week will be followed by a return to ridging and
warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s F and lows
in the 50s to 60s F, 70s F along the Rio Grande can be expected
to begin next week, with daily 25% to 35% shower/storm chances
over northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin, and eastern Permian
Basin into Terrell County and Lower Trans Pecos, with a few tenths
of inch rainfall in heaviest storms. Humid, southeast upslope
winds, up to 20 to 25 mph over western higher terrain during the
afternoon, will persist as a diffuse dryline oscillates over W TX
into SE NM, separating more humid air to the east (characterized
by dew point temperatures in the mid 40s F to lower 60s F), and
drier air to the west (characterized by dew point temperatures in
the mid 20s F to lower 40s F). A closed mid to upper trough is
still expected to influence the forecast area from Monday
afternoon into Wednesday next week, with cooler air aloft coupled
with daytime heating resulting in instability conducive to 45% to
65% shower/storm chances Monday evening for the SE NM plains into
Presidio Valley, and 55% to 70% shower/storm chances Tuesday
afternoon/evening along and northeast of the Guadalupes into Davis
Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos. Not only will this keep highs
down in the 80s F for most of the area, but it will result in
widespread rainfall at least 0.25" to 0.50", with eastern portions
of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau having a 25% to 45%
chance of rainfall amounts up to 1" in heaviest storms. Some risk
for damaging winds and hail in the strongest storms may be
present, but the primary risk with any stronger storms will be
flooding in low-lying and poor drainage regions. Temperatures
increase back into the mid 80s F to lower 90s F Wednesday and into
the upper 80s F to mid 90s F by the end of next week as upper
ridging builds back in and larger scale sinking and warming motion
suppresses cloud and shower/storm development such that only a
stray (5% to 15%) chance of daytime showers/storms remains over
northern and eastern parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions and generally light southerly to southeasterly winds
prevail through the period. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across eastern and southern portions of the area. PROB30s for TS
have been maintained at MAF and FST, and have been introduced at HOB
as well for this afternoon. Guidance continues to indicate gusty
winds will briefly develop at all terminals this evening before
becoming light again overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  61  87  62 /  30  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  60  94  62 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   90  64  89  65 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  61  91  62 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           83  60  85  62 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    91  57  90  58 /  20  10  20  10
Marfa                    84  51  87  51 /  20   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  62  87  63 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                   89  62  87  63 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                     93  62  92  63 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ276-281-231745-
Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
1216 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Big Bend Ranch State Park. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Casa Piedra.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2968 10412 2997 10415 3000 10381 2999 10380
      2973 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 072DEG 3KT 2984 10397

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ277-278-231830-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
1242 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Alpine, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 10340 3033 10331 3030 10339 3028 10363
      3042 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 247DEG 5KT 3039 10352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ276-281-231830-
Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
1245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles northeast of Big Bend Ranch State Park, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Casa Piedra.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2970 10397 2974 10410 3002 10405 2994 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 203DEG 9KT 2983 10399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

21