Flash Flood Warning 200, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

853 
WGUS54 KMAF 240947
FFWMAF
NMC015-TXC109-241200-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FF.W.0200.000000T0000Z-260924T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico...
  Northwestern Culberson County in southwestern Texas...

* Until 600 AM MDT /700 AM CDT/.

* At 347 AM MDT /447 AM CDT/, Doppler radar continued to indicate
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
  1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen during the past three hours.
  Additional heavy rainfall can be expected as storms train over the
  warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pine Springs, Carlsbad Caverns National Park, McKittrick Canyon,
  Whites City, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Lincoln National
  Forest and Queen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 10492 3200 10490 3200 10485 3204 10485
      3231 10482 3237 10466 3231 10430 3212 10430
      3188 10431 3163 10445 3165 10469 3168 10489
      3187 10492

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall
  and an increased risk of flash flooding over the Van Horn
  Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New
  Mexico Plains this afternoon through late Thursday night. The
  pattern may continue to support heavy rainfall and a risk of
  flooding over these locations through late this week.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the
  remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

V imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge anchored in place
over the upper Texas Gulf Coast, while out west, an Omega block sits
off the baja coast.  Between both of these features is a conveyor
belt transferring rich subtropical moisture into the region, as well
as plenty of shortwave activity.  As such, wetter, cooler conditions
closer to fall than summer are expected in the short term.  With
diminished thicknesses and abundant cloud cover, today could very
well be the coolest day this forecast as highs level off within a
degree or so of climatology...very fitting, as fall has now
officially begun.  As for wetter conditions, ensembles increase
pwats in the conveyor belt over New Mexico to 2-3 std devs above
normal.  KMAF radar bias has flipped to 1.2, a testament to the
tropical nature of the AMS.  Unfortunately, this means abysmal radar
coverage, as radars will be overshooting warm rain processes that
accompany such airmasses, and we'll be relying heavily on ground
truth.

Satellite, radar, and CAMs continue to suggest best chances for
precip over the short term will be Southeast New Mexico, where a FFA
is in effect, and extends south into most of Culberson County.  A
shortwave is visible in WV imagery moving up through Chihuahua into
the upper Presidio Valley, and will clock Southeast New Mexico later
this afternoon/evening, resulting in perhaps the best rain chances
this forecast. Abundant overcast and a 30 kt LLJ will keep
overnight minimums an average around 10 F above normal.

Thursday, conditions/temperatures look very similar to today,
w/coolest temperatures and best rain chances Southeast New Mexico.
CAMs/QPF suggest extending the current watch another 24 hours.
Depending on what transpires the next 18 hours, the FFA may need to
be expanded in area as well.

Thursday night, CAMs increase chances Southeast New Mexico as
another shortwave moves through southwest flow aloft. Temperatures
look about the same as tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Friday, a mid level ridge is progged to lie to our east, centered
near East Texas, while an upper trough is positioned over the
western US. Situated between these two features, southwesterly flow
aloft continues to bring moisture over our region. Disturbances will
also be embedded within the flow. At the surface, a trough looks to
be oriented NE-SW across the Texas Panhandle and SE NM, aiding to
draw in Gulf moisture. As a result, isolated to widespread showers
and storms continue Friday, with rain chances ranging between 10-80%
areawide. The best (50-80%) chances will favor the northern/
northwestern Permian Basin, SE NM, and the higher terrain in West
Texas Friday. Rain chances decrease with southeastern progression,
nearer the ridge core. We will still need to monitor for the
potential of flash flooding Friday, mainly in our western counties,
given there will have been several days of wetting rains by that
point. Shower/storm activity then tapers down overnight Friday as a
shortwave within the trough passes over the Rockies into the central
Plains. The shortwave dampens the ridge and flow aloft becomes zonal
by Saturday evening. Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances shift south
of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon, with the best chances
remaining in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. Along with
decreasing rain chances, temperatures gradually increase over the
weekend. Highs Friday are forecast to reach the 80s at most
locations, then cool to the 60s and 70s overnight. Saturday's highs
top out in the 80s within the western portions of our region, with
90s in our eastern portions.

Upper ridging builds back over our region Sunday into Monday, ahead
of another trough progged to approach the region Monday evening.
Rain chances decrease further over the higher terrain Sunday
afternoon and highs generally reach the 90s (80s in/near the higher
terrain). With the approach of our next storm system, rain chances
increase again Monday evening into Tuesday, again raising
concerns for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Of course, details
shall be ironed out over the coming days, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Band of SHRA/TSRA will reduce ceilings and visibility at times
near KCNM overnight. Additional SHRA/TSRA will develop near KCNM
and KHOB Thursday afternoon and evening, with localized MVFR or
lower conditions near storms that develop. PROB30 for TSRA was
included at KPEQ and KINK Thursday afternoon/evening. VFR
otherwise continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  71  89  69 /  10  30  30  30
Carlsbad                 81  64  82  63 /  50  70  70  30
Dryden                   90  72  91  72 /   0  20  10  30
Fort Stockton            87  70  88  69 /  10  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass           73  60  75  61 /  50  70  60  30
Hobbs                    81  65  81  65 /  40  60  80  40
Marfa                    80  59  80  58 /  30  50  50  50
Midland Intl Airport     88  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                   87  71  86  70 /  10  40  40  30
Wink                     87  70  86  68 /  10  60  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21