Flash Flood Warning 195, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler
  beginning Tuesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
  region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of
  producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
  and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into the early to middle part of next
  week. Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Little change to the forecast for today and into tonight from the
previous package. Satellite imagery and mesoanalysis continue to
indicate southwesterly flow over the western half of the region with
a ridge parked over the Arklatex. Surface dew points remain 60-65+
across the CWA and increasing moisture aloft along with a shortwave
moving in from the west will aid in developing scattered showers and
storms across the higher terrain and Big Bend with coverage
expanding later this afternoon and evening into the Permian Basin.
Convection decays and move out of the region late tonight, but with
the bulk of the moisture remaining in the area, rain chances
continue on Sunday with a focus across the eastern third of the
area. A few storms today will be strong to severe with damaging
winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Highs tomorrow will be
about the same as today with most locations reaching into the 90s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Heading into Sunday evening, showers and storms from earlier in the
day begin to decay and move to the east. During the day on Monday, a
cold front approaches from the north, but with the onset of daytime
heating, it will slow and stall between Midland and Lubbock. Rain
chances increase along and behind the front Monday evening. The
front pushes south into the region on Tuesday and rain chances
spread nearly areawide with the highest chances (50-70%) across
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lower chances (20-40%)
continue south of the I-10 corridor.

Each day from Tuesday through Thursday will be similar with rounds
of rain developing each of those afternoons mainly across the
northern half of the CWA. Low confidence on how much will fall over
the course of the week and will depend on where the most favorable
environment will be each day. Medium range continues to put the
focus over southeast New Mexico and into central New Mexico. Highs
during this time drop into the 80s to low 90s for most, which is an
improvement from the late season heat, but will still be above
normal for the end of September. Overnight lows settle into the 60s
partly because of a cooler airmass and northeasterly flow at the
surface as well as increased cloud cover and rain chances.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Aside from areas of direct convection, VFR conditions will
prevail next 24 hours in light and variable flow. Convection is
possible most terminals over the next 6-8 hours. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early
afternoon Sunday, w/bases ~ 6-9 kft AGL. Convection is possible
Sunday afternoon West Texas terminals, but chances are too low for
a mention attm except for KFST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  98  70  95 /  30  40  10  20
Carlsbad                 68  96  68  94 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   76  97  73  97 /  20  30  30   0
Fort Stockton            72  96  70  95 /  20  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           66  87  66  86 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                    68  94  66  91 /  40  10  10  40
Marfa                    62  88  61  88 /  60  50   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  71  94 /  30  40  10  20
Odessa                   75  96  72  94 /  30  30  10  20
Wink                     73  98  71  97 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
708 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

NMZ033-034-TXZ050-200045-
Southern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-Andrews TX-
708 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEA...WEST CENTRAL
ANDREWS AND SOUTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT/645 PM
MDT/...

At 708 PM CDT/608 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Eunice, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eunice, Eunice Airport, and Oil Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 10324 3239 10338 3262 10317 3240 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 227DEG 6KT 3242 10320

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
714 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ045-046-200100-
Dawson TX-Gaines TX-
714 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GAINES AND
NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Welch to near Seagraves. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seagraves, Welch, Seagraves Airport, and Loop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 10258 3287 10266 3296 10255 3296 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 061DEG 4KT 3291 10230 3287 10259

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
718 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ050-051-200100-
Martin TX-Andrews TX-
718 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS AND WEST
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Midland International Air and Space Port, or 16
miles southeast of Andrews. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Andrews and west central Martin Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 10242 3229 10220 3215 10216 3209 10239
      3214 10249
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 182DEG 1KT 3213 10236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
731 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ045-200100-
Gaines TX-
731 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GAINES COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM CDT...

At 731 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gaines County Airport, or over Seminole, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Gaines County Airport, Paynes Corner, and Gaines County
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 10263 3273 10284 3290 10269 3266 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 226DEG 6KT 3270 10264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
735 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ082-200115-
Terrell TX-
735 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 735 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sanderson. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson and Terrell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 2998 10218 3005 10252 3027 10247 3023 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 246DEG 3KT 3011 10235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

44