Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Daily scattered showers and storms are expected through the week.

- The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk
  of flooding, especially south of the I-20 Corridor.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The moisture finally arrived yesterday as we saw scattered showers
and storms develop. Activity increases today and tomorrow as a
weak disturbance moves into West Texas. The disturbance will be
slow to move out due to weak steering flow. Any storms that
develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding. Currently, the threat does not appear widespread
enough to issue a flood watch but we will continue to monitor for
the need. Increased clouds and rainfall keep highs in the 80s
today and Tuesday, unseasonably cool for mid July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The end of the week is a continuation of the short term. Large
high pressure remains well north of the CWA providing little
subsidence to cap convection. A deep southeasterly flow from the
gulf continues advecting moisture into West Texas and eastern New
Mexico and daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere enough to
provide good rainfall chances. Models are showing convection over
Central Texas creates and MCV that slowly moves west late in the
week. This creates additional instability and rain chances become
high (>60%) in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos. Flash flooding
will continue to be a concern, especially in the Davis Mountains
and along the Rio Grande where many summer vacationers will be
camping near flood prone areas. Clouds and rain continue below
normal temperatures as highs remain in the 80s through the end of
the week. A drier and warmer trend begins early next week bringing
conditions more climatologically normal.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Intermittent showers with isolated storms will continue through
the day before a decrease in coverage tonight. Easterly to
southeasterly winds can be expected outside of any convection.
Amendments will be necessary throughout the TAF period based on
radar trends. CIGs will be near low VFR to MVFR for much of the
period with poorer VIS and CIGs with storms moving over any
terminals, but improving after storms pass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  85  67  84 /  20  70  30  40
Carlsbad                 67  87  67  86 /  20  60  20  30
Dryden                   70  87  67  84 /  50  80  60  90
Fort Stockton            67  83  65  81 /  50  90  30  70
Guadalupe Pass           64  79  63  78 /  20  60  10  30
Hobbs                    65  85  64  84 /  20  60  10  30
Marfa                    59  78  56  77 /  40  90  30  80
Midland Intl Airport     68  84  66  82 /  20  70  20  50
Odessa                   68  84  66  82 /  20  70  20  50
Wink                     68  86  66  84 /  20  70  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening
     for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93