Wind Advisory 12, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
626 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

 - Fire weather concerns today and again on Tuesday west of a
   dryline.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are
   possible Tuesday through Friday, mainly off the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A quiet afternoon was well underway after yesterday's round of
spotty storms. Regional obs at noon showed the dryline was becoming
better defined from just east of Childress down to Lake Alan Henry,
but this shallow moisture will soon depart our forecast area ahead
of breezy SW winds and deeper mixing. Although background ascent is
largely muted this afternoon in SW flow, convective temps and/or any
stronger dryline circulations could promote very isolated storms
just S-E of Stonewall County. A richer and deeper influx of gulf
moisture ensues tonight all the while the dryline retreats to near a
Brownfield-Lubbock-Silverton line. Sizable CAPE above the nocturnal
inversion looks difficult to tap into given neutral ascent in this
layer, but we'll keep a sliver of 20 PoPs in/around Stonewall County
overnight as a few CAMs support elevated convection with assistance
from a 40 knot LLJ and modest isentropic ascent. NBM's PoPs were too
generous in coverage and amounts overnight, so these were scaled
lower.

Tuesday's dryline is likely to mix off the Caprock and stall
somewhere in our eastern zones thanks to thicker moisture and backed
winds unfolding in the moist sector. These more southerly surface
winds are in response to pressure falls farther west preceding an
upper trough. As this trough lifts across the Four Corners on
Tuesday, southwest winds at 500 mb tick up from about 40 knots today
to 65 knots by noon Tuesday in concert with steady height falls. A
fair bit of mid and high clouds will accompany this stronger flow,
but should not hinder convective temps much as the EML is not
progged to strengthen much, if any. So the pros outweigh the cons
for a more active dryline Tuesday afternoon off the Caprock. Severe
prospects, including a few supercells, are in play given up to 2000
J/kg of SBCAPE embedded with 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. One
positive consideration is that storm modes will be swift to the
northeast which should keep our severe concerns limited to the first
few hours following initiation. West of the dryline, another breezy
and very warm afternoon awaits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Any remaining convection across the Rolling Plains late Tuesday
night should be well east of the FA by sunrise Wednesday. The
dryline will remain over the eastern Rolling Plains by sunrise
Wednesday before pushing eastward as an upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. This should help to keep most if not all convection
east of the FA Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper low will
travel from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday southeastward to the
Central Rockies by Friday morning. A surface lee low is progged to
develop ahead of the upper low/trough late Thursday, allowing for
breezy conditions to develop area wide. This will be further
enhanced as a cold front begins pushing southward Friday afternoon
and evening as the upper low/trough pushes eastward towards the
Central Plains. A dryline is expected to precede the cold front,
with the cold front moving south of the FA by late Saturday morning.
Both the dryline and cold front are expected to be dry at this
point, though critical to near extreme fire weather danger will be
possible behind the dryline due to windy and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Relatively strong southwest winds will continue for a few more
hours this evening before weakening slightly after sunset. Some
transient LLWS is possible overnight mainly at KCDS, but with
magnitudes expected to be too weak for TAF mention. Surface winds
will then increase once again by mid-morning Tuesday. Some MVFR
stratus will also likely develop Tuesday morning, but should
remain south of the TAF sites. VFR is expected to prevail
otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A critical fire weather danger continues through 8 PM this evening
for the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains.
Southwest winds here of 20 to 25 mph with some gusts near 40 mph
will push RFTIs up to 4 and 5. A bit less wind for Tuesday will
support similar fire concerns for the same areas while locations off
the Caprock face chances for afternoon and evening storms. A Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the South Plains and
far southern TX Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-
027>029.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30

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