Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the
   Caprock this afternoon and evening, with dry and windy
   conditions west of the escarpment.

 - Critical fire danger is expected this afternoon for western
   portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall
   over the past week.

 - Elevated to critical fire weather may return on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The lack of substantial large scale ascent overhead will continue to
make today's forecast highly uncertain. However, all other
thermodynamic parameters will be in place to support severe
thunderstorms from this afternoon through early evening. A
positively tilted trough will continue to move eastward across the
Intermountain West this afternoon with the trough axis stretching
into the southwestern US. There may be a weak short wave or two late
this afternoon or evening moving through the southwest flow aloft.
However, nothing is discernible currently on water vapor imagery.
Furthermore, much of the lift from this trough will not arrive until
late this evening into early Wednesday morning. An eastward moving
dryline this afternoon will keep the deeper moisture off the caprock
but there is little convergence on this low level feature.
Therefore, there is no one favored location for convective
development off the caprock this afternoon. Low level moisture will
continue to be drawn up into the area early this evening as the
dryline begins to retreat back westward. Although some CAM guidance
convects on the dryline, the lack of ample large scale ascent and
weak convergence along the dryline would only favor a few storms.

As mentioned above, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for
severe storms. Afternoon storms will favor a large hail and damaging
wind threat. Steep mid level lapse rates under a well mixed and warm
near surface layer will yield mixed layer CAPE values anywhere
between 1500 and 2500 J/kg off the caprock. High level cloud cover
will at least somewhat inhibit mixing for the rest of the afternoon.
This is also evident in latest CAM guidance waffling on convective
initiation. The tornado potential will be low with afternoon
convection due to the weak convergence along the dryline and nearly
straight line hodographs. There will be very little curvature in the
forecast low level hodographs supporting this low tornado threat.
During the late afternoon into the early evening, the retreating
dryline will see a higher chance for tornadoes as the low level jet
rapidly increases. Low level turning will greatly increase during
this time period contributing to the increased tornado threat along
with the continued large hail and damaging wind threat.

A pacific cold front will begin to impinge on the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle early Wednesday morning and slowly
progress across the FA through the morning and early afternoon
hours. We will see deep boundary layer mixing on Wednesday tapping
into a broad region of winds of 30-35kt at 700mb. The deep mixing
will allow for relative humidity values to drastically drop on
Wednesday afternoon, possibly into the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

At the moment, the long term forecast is trending drier. From
Thursday into Friday the next short wave trough will be diving
across the Intermountain West but remaining well north of the
region. As this shortwave emerges onto the northern and central
Plains on Friday, low level moisture will make a return. However,
the far northern latitude of this trough will more likely bring fire
weather conditions. The dryline should quickly mix eastward on
Friday leaving the FA with very dry and breezy conditions. A fairly
potent cold front will follow sometime late Friday into early
Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Breezy to windy southwest winds will continue at all terminals
through sunset, with speeds around 20-20G40KTs. Overall VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
period. However, there remains a slight chance for -TSRA at KCDS
this evening, which could bring brief MVFR CIGs to the terminal. If
any storms develop localized strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall
could lead visibility restrictions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-
027>030-033-034-039.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1159 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

TXZ021>044-151700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1159 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly off the
Caprock this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be
severe, and will be capable of producing hail up to two inches in
diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph. If storms form this evening,
then storms may pose a risk for tornadoes across the Rolling Plains
into the night.

Strong southwest winds to the west of a dryline will result in
critical fire danger over western portions of the Caprock and far
southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect from noon until 8 PM for these locations. A Wind Advisory is
also in effect for the southwestern Texas Panhandle from 1 PM until
7 PM, where sustained wind speeds up to 35 mph are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions may lead to elevated to critical
fire weather on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.