Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS St. Louis, MO

442 
WWUS53 KLSX 152316
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
616 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

MOC123-152326-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260315T2330Z/
Madison MO-
616 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for a portion of
southeast Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9036 3750 9041 3760 9015 3754 9014
      3749 9014 3731 9015 3732 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 249DEG 47KT 3739 9026

$$

Kimble

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
254 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms exists through
  early this evening, mainly across east central and southeast
  Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. Brief, weak tornadoes
  and damaging winds are the main threats.

- Minor snowfall amounts are forecast this evening through
  tonight, mainly across northeast Missouri where as much as 1-3"
  may fall.

- Wind gusts as high as 45-50 mph are expected through early Monday
  morning.

- Unseasonable cold is expected through Tuesday before a rapid
  warmup begins on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A late winter/early spring storm is underway across the region,
with a surface low east of Quincy, IL early this afternoon with
an attendant draped to its southwest. As of 1900 UTC, the boundary
is nearing a KVIH>>KPPQ line with regional radar and GOES-19
satellite imagery showing gradually developing showers and
thunderstorms along the front. The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows
250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE nosing into eastern Missouri with 45-55+
knots of effective shear. It is worth noting however that the RAP
initializations over the past several hours have been consistently
too high with instability/CAPE. This is due to the RAP (and HRRR)
being consistently too high with dewpoints in the warm sector.
This is something that could lead to a slower (or less robust)
development of the QLCS later today. That being said, we still do
expect convection to become more widespread along the boundary
over the next several hours and more organized with time/eastward
extent. Exactly how fast this occurs remains uncertain however,
which is why parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois
have the higher threat for severe weather in our region. Strong
0-3 km shear (40+ knots) with a strong line-normal component
(more perpendicular) means that QLCS mesovortices will be a
concern, which could produce brief, weak tornadoes and/or damaging
winds. Those two hazards remain the primary concerns late this
afternoon through about 7 PM this evening when the cold front
clears our south-central Illinois counties.

Another area of precipitation is expected to move out of western
Missouri into central Missouri early this evening. Model soundings
show very low wetbulb zero heights (below 400 feet AGL), so this
should fall as snow. Upstream observations across eastern Kansas
also have only snow. Surface temperatures are still expected to
be above the freezing mark however, so road impacts are not
expected. There may however be a ~2 hour period with reduced
visibilities (~1 mile). Further northeast, the steadier snow
should last a bit longer, maybe up to 4-6 hours. In these
locations, amounts of 1-2" are expected with some isolated spots
up to 3" possible. Some minor travel impacts are possible in these
locations, as road temperatures may cool below the freezing mark
toward the end of the snowfall. Therefore, have issued a winter
weather advisory for 5 counties in northeast Missouri/western
Illinois. Strong cyclonic flow aloft and steep low-level lapse
rates suggests snow showers/flurries elsewhere overnight and this
activity may last through Monday morning in eastern Missouri over
into Illinois.

Behind the cold front, winds turn to the northwest with about a ~20
degree temperature drop over a 2-hour period. Gust of 45-50 mph
will be common overnight, with the highest gusts most likely
across central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois from
late this evening through the predawn hours on Monday. A few gusts
of 55-60 mph would not surprise me either, given unidirectional
winds within the mixed layer and strong low-level cold air
advection. However, did not upgrade any counties to a high wind
warning as the expectation is that any of these 60+ gusts will be
sparse/transient, if they occur at all. The latest HREF
probabilities for 60+ mph wind only peak out at about 20% in our
far northern/northwestern counties.

The aforementioned gusty northwest winds will gradually slack on
Monday, but minimum wind chill values of 0 to -10F are expected in
central/northeast Missouri as well as west-central Illinois early
Monday morning. Low stratus looks to hang around much of the day
on Monday, especially across eastern Missouri into western
Illinois. These low clouds along with continued low-level cold air
advection should keep temperatures some 25-30 degrees below
normal on Monday. This incoming air mass is very impressive with
its origin from Alaska. Temperatures at 850 hPa drop to between
-14 and - 18C, or <1st percentile of climatology. Highs below
freezing are expected nearly areawide, though some spots may top
out just above 32 degrees in central/southeast Missouri where some
sunshine is more likely by the afternoon.

Monday night will be the colder night, though northwest winds will
really lighten up as a surface ridge of high pressure approaches
from the west. The anomalously cold air mass along with a clear sky
and light winds should lead to very cold low temperatures. Lows in
the single digits (north) to teens are forecast. While these will
lows will not be record breaking, they may get within about 4-5
degrees of records at both St. Louis (10F/1900) and Columbia
(8F/1906). Wind chills will be mainly driven by the frigid
aforementioned temperatures, but lowest values of -5 to +5F are
expected across the northern half of the area, including the St.
Louis metro area. For more perspective, St. Louis has only had an
observed wind chill below +5F after 3/15 two times over the past
50 years (1979 and 2002).

Gosselin

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

(Tuesday - Tuesday Night)

Tuesday will still be unseasonably cold, though not nearly as cold
as Monday as highs reach into the 30s to low 40s from northeast to
southwest. A hybrid clipper is expected to move through the region
Tuesday night, potentially bringing some light rain or snow to the
area. Better odds are to our northeast however for accumulating
snow, closer to the climatology of northwest flow/Alberta clipper
systems.

(Wednesday - Next Sunday)

A much warmer and drier weather pattern looks to take hold on
Wednesday and should continue through next weekend. Our region
begins to feel more influence from the anomalous mid/upper level
ridge across the intermountain west. Wednesday should be the a
transition day, with highs mostly in the 60s but widespread 70s are
expected Thursday onward. There is also high confidence in well-
above normal temperatures through at least Friday, with even the
25th percentile of the NBM showing 60s/70s. Temperature uncertainty
does increase next weekend, as some ensemble members from the LREF
show a cold frontal passage. This is when the spread on the IQR of
the NBM increase to 20-25 degrees. This is the difference from a
continuation of readings ~20 degrees above normal to temperatures
dropping back to near to slightly below normal values for late March.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The cold front is nearing central Missouri, and should push
through KCOU/KJEF over the next 2 hours. The boundary should then
push through KUIN and the metro terminals by late afternoon.
Showers are likely associated with this frontal passage, with
thunder expected for the metro. Brief reductions in visibility (to
IFR) are expected in thunderstorms. Behind the front, rain will
linger for a few hours as winds turn to the northwest. Another
round of precipitation, this time in the form of snow, should
impact central Missouri and KUIN sites this evening. The snow
should last a bit longer at KUIN, into the early overnight hours.
Accumulations at KCOU/KJEF should be light (less than 1") and on
elevated/grassy surfaces. Up at KUIN, amounts of 1-2" are expected
with some minor (up to 0.5" roughly) possible on road surfaces.
Visibilities should drop to IFR in the snow. Light snow showers
may impact the metro terminals from 0600-0900 UTC approximately,
but should not be as widespread as further north. Otherwise, look
for low MVFR ceilings and very gusty northwest winds tonight into
Monday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-162000-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Some thunderstorms through early evening will be capable of brief,
weak tornadoes and damaging wind gusts mainly in southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois.

Accumulating snow capable of minor travel impacts is expected
tonight, mainly across northeastern Missouri and west-central
Illinois. Please see the winter weather advisory for more details.

Strong non-thunderstorms winds are expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong non-thunderstorms winds are expected Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail, wind damage, or snowfall
accumulations to the National Weather Service.

Gosselin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
528 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Collinsville      38.69N 90.03W
03/15/2026  M60 MPH          Madison            IL   Public

            TV meteorologist noted several gusts over 60
            mph in his Storm Runner vehicle.

&&

MCF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
531 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Farmington          37.79N 90.43W
03/15/2026  E60 MPH          St. Francois       MO   Public

&&

MCF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
536 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     Hail             Wood River              38.86N 90.09W
03/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Madison            IL   Public

            Quarter-size hail in Wood River, reported by
            Madison County SKYWARN.

&&

MCF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
544 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ENE Leadington        37.86N 90.42W
03/15/2026                   Ste. Genevieve     MO   Emergency Mngr

            Tree debris is blocking a part of Hwy D just
            north of Hwy O. Time of damage estimated
            from radar.

&&

MCF

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service St Louis MO
548 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     Hail             Wood River              38.86N 90.09W
03/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Madison            IL   Public

            Corrects time entry of previous hail report
            from Wood River. Quarter-size hail in Wood
            River, reported by Madison County SKYWARN.

&&

MCF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
554 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Des Peres               38.60N 90.45W
03/15/2026                   St. Louis          MO   Public

            Winds blew open strong steel door, estimated
            at 70 mph.

&&

MCF