Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS St. Louis, MO

568 
WWUS53 KLSX 042001
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MOC055-071-073-219-221-042100-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260704T2100Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Washington MO-
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN CRAWFORD, FRANKLIN, GASCONADE, SOUTHERN WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

At 301 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 5
miles south of Chamois to 9 miles south of Bland, or along a line
from 10 miles northeast of Linn to 16 miles southwest of Owensville,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Bland, Owensville, Drake, Rosebud, Swiss, Gerald, Hermann,
  Leasburg, Bourbon, Sullivan, Beaufort, New Haven, Miramiguoa Park,
  Union, Anthonies Mill, St. Clair, Washington, Parkway and
  Marthasville.

This includes the following State Parks...
Deutschheim Historic Site and Meramec State Park.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 210 and 242.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors should move to shelter inside a well-built structure
and stay away from windows. These storms are capable of producing
widespread damaging winds and large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 9164 3870 9164 3868 9155 3869 9151
      3871 9149 3871 9142 3873 9142 3873 9097
      3855 9096 3854 9094 3837 9091 3806 9095
      3809 9153 3815 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 271DEG 46KT 3861 9188 3840 9176 3818 9182

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

LE

879 
WWUS53 KLSX 042022
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MOC073-219-042032-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260704T2100Z/
Gasconade MO-Warren MO-
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GASCONADE AND
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for a
portion of east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9137 3841 9137 3847 9119 3848 9093
      3837 9091 3816 9094 3806 9095 3809 9153
      3821 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 271DEG 46KT 3860 9174 3840 9163 3817 9169

$$


MOC055-071-221-042100-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260704T2100Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Washington MO-
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN CRAWFORD, SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

At 322 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 6
miles east of Swiss to near Leasburg, or along a line from 8 miles
west of New Haven to near Bourbon, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Oak Hill, Gerald, Japan, Leasburg, Leslie, Bourbon, Noser Mill, St.
  Cloud, Beaufort, Sullivan, Stanton, Miramiguoa Park, Anthonies
  Mill, St. Clair, Union, Parkway and Piney Park.

This includes the following State Parks...
Meramec State Park.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 210 and 242.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors should move to shelter inside a well-built structure
and stay away from windows. These storms are capable of producing
widespread damaging winds and large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9137 3841 9137 3847 9119 3848 9093
      3837 9091 3816 9094 3806 9095 3809 9153
      3821 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 271DEG 35KT 3859 9162 3838 9150 3816 9157

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

LE

679 
WWUS53 KLSX 042038
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MOC055-042048-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260704T2100Z/
Crawford MO-
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD
COUNTY...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9110 3838 9112 3847 9110 3848 9093
      3837 9091 3816 9094 3806 9095 3807 9109
      3810 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 271DEG 35KT 3858 9136 3838 9124 3815 9131

$$


MOC071-221-042100-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260704T2100Z/
Franklin MO-Washington MO-
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...

At 338 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
near Washington to over Anthonies Mill, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Stanton, Miramiguoa Park, St. Clair, Anthonies Mill, Union, Parkway
  and Piney Park.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 230 and 242.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9110 3838 9112 3847 9110 3848 9093
      3837 9091 3816 9094 3806 9095 3807 9109
      3810 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 279DEG 33KT 3855 9127 3835 9115 3812 9121

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LE

611 
WWUS53 KLSX 042051
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
351 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MOC071-221-042101-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260704T2100Z/
Franklin MO-Washington MO-
351 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for a
portion of east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9110 3838 9112 3847 9110 3848 9093
      3837 9091 3816 9094 3806 9095 3807 9109
      3810 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 279DEG 33KT 3853 9108 3832 9097 3810 9103

$$

LE

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
107 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot and humid conditions with heat index values
  from around 100-105 continue today. Heat Advisories and an
  Extreme Heat Warning remain in effect until 800 PM.

- There is a chance for thunderstorms today and tonight. Some
  storms may be strong to severe and capable of producing 50-60
  mph winds as well as hail up to 1 inch in diameter and locally
  heavy downpours.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues into early
  next week, with temperatures closer to normal in the mid 80s to
  around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Convective trends are very difficult to forecast today. Clusters
of thunderstorms over northwest Missouri and central Illinois are
pushing outflow boundaries east and south respectively. More
convection may continue to pop up over central Missouri as well,
which will reinforce the boundary if it gets strong enough. Either
boundary is a potential focus for thunderstorm development today,
and the boundaries could collide which would also be a great
forcing mechanism for convective development.

Clouds from morning convection that linger into the afternoon and/or
continuing scattered afternoon convection would almost certainly
suppress temperatures and end the excessive heat today. However,
timing and coverage is uncertain given the complex interactions
which will take place today.  If coverage remains limited this
morning, temperatures could easily recover to reach heat index
values between 95-105. While this isn't as hot as earlier in the
week, the duration of this heat wave continues to support the
current headlines, particularly since there will be a lot of people
outside for Independence Day celebrations. GFS and RAP show 2000-
4000 J/Kg CAPE developing this afternoon with as much as 25kts of
deep layer shear.  This would support multi-cell clusters with the
potential to produce damaging winds.  Think the chance for
thunderstorms will generally decrease in the evening with loss of
daytime heating, but there will still be a lingering thunderstorm
threat to Independence Day celebrations beyond sunset.

Carney

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

There's little change to the remainder of the forecast for Sunday
through next Friday.  A short wave digs into the Mississippi Valley
Sunday which pushes a weak cold front through the area.  Global
guidance members diverge somewhat Monday in how they handle the
wave.  The GFS digs the base of the trough deep into the Lower
Mississippi Valley where it fractures late Tuesday leaving a cut off
low over eastern Texas/western Louisiana.  The ECMWF begins this
process much earlier on Monday night which puts the cut off low
farther north over Oklahoma and Arkansas.  The more northern
solution seems to be favored by the NBM and the LREF mean which are
keeping precipitation chances going at least through Tuesday as the
closed low moves slowly northeast and is finally reintegrated into
the mean flow.  While there's a relatively dry period on Wednesday,
precipitation chances return Thursday and Friday as another short
wave moves across the Mid Mississippi Valley.  Temperatures through
the period should be closer to seasonal normal as upper level long
wave ridging will remain well west of the area.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

There is a threat for multiple rounds of thunderstorms at all of
the local terminals through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are in the broader vicinity of all local
terminals except for KUIN, with these posing a threat for early in
the period. Our attention then turns to a cluster of storms moving
eastward out of western Missouri and a cold front sinking
southward into the region late this afternoon and evening.
Both will serve as a focus for a greater threat of thunderstorms
capable of erratic, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Confidence is
low on the timing of these stronger storms, so chances have been
left to PROB30 groups for now. Once confidence increases, TEMPO or
prevailing groups will be needed for some of the terminals. A lull
in rain chances is expected tonight, with a low chance for showers
and thunderstorms again late in the period tomorrow.

Elmore

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
     Francois MO-Shelby MO-Washington MO.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
     Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO.

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
     IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clinton IL-
     Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
217 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W California          38.63N 92.58W
07/04/2026                   Moniteau           MO   Trained Spotter

            6 inch tree limb snapped on west side of
            California with the gust front passage.

&&

AE