Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS St. Louis, MO

394 
WWUS53 KLSX 272229
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
529 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MOC139-272239-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-260427T2300Z/
Montgomery MO-
529 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for a portion of
east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9127 3914 9119 3926 9119 3934 9084
      3932 9082 3931 9080 3931 9079 3930 9079
      3928 9077 3928 9076 3926 9075 3926 9074
      3925 9073 3920 9072 3917 9071 3915 9071
      3913 9070 3903 9126 3913 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 252DEG 51KT 3943 9152 3923 9150 3900 9174

$$


MOC113-163-272300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-260427T2300Z/
Lincoln MO-Pike MO-
529 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 529 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
near Pittsfield to 5 miles north of Davis, or along a line from near
Pittsfield to 11 miles north of Troy, moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Eolia around 530 PM CDT.
  Elsberry around 540 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by the severe thunderstorm include
Paynesville, Silex, Whiteside, Annada and New Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter
immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built
structure.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for portions of
east central and northeast Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9127 3914 9119 3926 9119 3934 9084
      3932 9082 3931 9080 3931 9079 3930 9079
      3928 9077 3928 9076 3926 9075 3926 9074
      3925 9073 3920 9072 3917 9071 3915 9071
      3913 9070 3903 9126 3913 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 255DEG 60KT 3942 9147 3923 9145 3900 9171

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jaja

075 
WWUS53 KLSX 272237
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
537 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MOC113-163-272300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-260427T2300Z/
Lincoln MO-Pike MO-
537 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 537 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 10
miles southeast of Griggsville to 5 miles west of Elsberry, or along
a line from 9 miles east of Pittsfield to 5 miles west of Elsberry,
moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Elsberry around 540 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by the severe thunderstorm include New Hope,
Annada and Paynesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter
immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built
structure.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for portions of
east central and northeast Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9115 3928 9111 3934 9084 3932 9082
      3931 9080 3931 9079 3930 9079 3928 9077
      3927 9075 3926 9075 3926 9074 3925 9073
      3920 9072 3917 9071 3915 9071 3913 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 256DEG 60KT 3955 9079 3936 9077 3913 9103

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

148 
WWUS53 KLSX 272251
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
551 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MOC113-163-272300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-260427T2300Z/
Lincoln MO-Pike MO-
551 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL
PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 551 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
over Roodhouse to 5 miles south of Elsberry, or along a line from 6
miles northeast of White Hall to 5 miles south of Elsberry, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Elsberry around 555 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter
immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built
structure.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 9095 3932 9082 3931 9080 3931 9079
      3930 9079 3928 9077 3928 9076 3926 9075
      3926 9074 3925 9073 3920 9072 3917 9071
      3915 9071 3913 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 267DEG 44KT 3950 9056 3931 9074 3909 9100

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
647 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While periods of storms are expected through Monday morning, the most
  potent thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening.

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
  damaging wind gusts, large hail, and strong tornadoes.

- A period of cool, calm weather is expected mid-week through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Storms across southeastern Missouri continue to butt up against an
instability gradient draped from north to south across Missouri.
The warm air advection feeding these storms will also push greater
instability slowly northeastward through this morning, though
propagation vectors will favor convection continuing to move east-
southeastward generally away from the CWA or into an unfavorable
environment. Additionally, the low-level jet refocusing across
Kansas will continue to support the downward trend in convection
across southeastern Missouri early this morning. Any linger storms
over the next couple of hours will be capable mainly of large hail,
though there is also a very low damaging wind and tornado threat for
storms that remain surface based.

Our attention turns to the storms over eastern Kansas that are
propagating eastward with the nose of the low-level jet. With the
nose of this low-level jet edging into northeastern Missouri later
this morning, the focus for these storms will spread into portions
of the CWA north of I-70. Vertical thermal profiles suggest that this
convection will be elevated, mitigating a threat of damaging wind
gusts and/or tornadoes. However, with around 40 kts of effective
shear and building MUCAPE, there is a low chance for isolated
instances of large hail.

How long this convection lingers is uncertain, although guidance
trends have been toward a lull in convective activity in the wake of
this convection and that associated with a cold front during the
late afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, the warm sector
remains capped through much of the afternoon per a majority of
deterministic soundings. Although, any remnant outflow or
differential heating boundary from early day convection may serve as
enough of a forcing mechanism to spawn discrete convection during
the afternoon as lift from an approaching shortwave increases over
the region. If this convection does form, it will be in an
environment characterized by 2,000-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE and roughly
50 kts of deep-layer shear. This will favor supercells capable of
all hazards, with long curved hodographs favoring strong tornadoes,
especially if storms are able to latch on to any remnant boundaries
across the CWA.

Where the environment isn't contaminated from earlier rounds of
convection, additional updrafts are expected along the cold front as
it enters the area 4-5pm. Forcing from the front paired with lift
from the shortwave will lead to numerous updrafts along the front.
While this will be occurring within a similar environment detailed
prior, the number of updrafts paired with them occurring along the
front may lead to destructive interactions and congealing into line
segments and/or clusters. While this will tend to limit a strong
tornado threat, storms will still be capable of all severe hazards.
Convection is expected to depart the CWA with the front by 9-10pm.

Even with the FROPA Monday evening, the threat for convection will
continue on Tuesday. Guidance consensus has the front stalling just
south of the CWA early Tuesday and then buckling northward as a
shortwave moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest
through the day. This shortwave will send a subtle surface
reflection through the Mid South along the front, with a brief
period of warm air advection that will help force elevated
convection for areas mainly along and south of I-70. If the front
can move northward enough, shear profiles and instability amounts
favor supercells capable primarily of large hail across far
southeastern Missouri during the afternoon. Waning instability and
the front continuing southward will bring an end to rain chances
during the evening.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Both deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters keep upper-level
troughing slowly moving eastward over the eastern CONUS through the
long range forecast period. This will maintain northwesterly flow
over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday as several
rounds of high pressure pass through the region. As a result,
temperatures will run at or below climatological normals into the
weekend and mostly dry weather is expected.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Thunderstorms are expected at times throughout the day, impacting
all terminals. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms this morning
is expected to be across central, northeastern MO into west-central
IL impacting KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN, with lower confidence in
thunderstorms reaching the St. Louis metro terminals through early
afternoon. Another round of redevelopment will take place this
afternoon and evening with the greatest chance of severe
thunderstorms as well. These thunderstorms will be capable of hail,
strong winds, and some tornadoes. Trends will need to be monitored
for more significant terminal impacts beyond MVFR to IFR flight
conditions.

A cold front will pass through the region this evening, veering
southerly winds to northwesterly with drier conditions prevailing.
There is the potential for some post-frontal MVFR ceilings late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with the highest chance of impacts at
KUIN. However, given that confidence is low in impacts before the
end of the TAF period, VFR flight conditions are maintained for
now.

Pfahler

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-280715-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through the day into this
evening. Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report wind damage, hail occurrence and
size, and tornado occurrence to NWS St. Louis.

Elmore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Hail             5 NE Columbia           39.01N 92.28W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Boone              MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
359 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Hail             3 NW Rush Hill          39.24N 91.78W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
400 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Hail             1 WNW Mexico            39.17N 91.88W
04/27/2026  E1.50 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
413 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Hail             3 NW Rush Hill          39.24N 91.78W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

            Second round of quarter-sized hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
443 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Hail             3 NW Rush Hill          39.24N 91.78W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

            third round of quarter-sized hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
446 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Hail             California              38.63N 92.57W
04/27/2026  E0.70 Inch       Moniteau           MO   Public

&&