River Flood Warning 49, NWS St. Louis, MO

141 
WGUS83 KLSX 282020
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  South Fabius River near Taylor.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

MOC127-282130-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0049.260428T2230Z-260428T2020Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 9.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 2.8 feet Tuesday, May
    05.



&&


All Times CDT     Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location          Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

South Fabius River
 Taylor           10.0    9.2     5.9   4.0   3.4   3.2   3.1



&&

LAT...LON 3989 9165 3993 9161 3991 9156 3991 9151
      3988 9151 3987 9162


$$

Fuchs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
504 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While periods of storms are expected through Monday morning, the most
  potent thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening.

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
  damaging wind gusts, large hail, and strong tornadoes.

- A period of cool, calm weather is expected mid-week through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Storms across southeastern Missouri continue to butt up against an
instability gradient draped from north to south across Missouri.
The warm air advection feeding these storms will also push greater
instability slowly northeastward through this morning, though
propagation vectors will favor convection continuing to move east-
southeastward generally away from the CWA or into an unfavorable
environment. Additionally, the low-level jet refocusing across
Kansas will continue to support the downward trend in convection
across southeastern Missouri early this morning. Any linger storms
over the next couple of hours will be capable mainly of large hail,
though there is also a very low damaging wind and tornado threat for
storms that remain surface based.

Our attention turns to the storms over eastern Kansas that are
propagating eastward with the nose of the low-level jet. With the
nose of this low-level jet edging into northeastern Missouri later
this morning, the focus for these storms will spread into portions
of the CWA north of I-70. Vertical thermal profiles suggest that this
convection will be elevated, mitigating a threat of damaging wind
gusts and/or tornadoes. However, with around 40 kts of effective
shear and building MUCAPE, there is a low chance for isolated
instances of large hail.

How long this convection lingers is uncertain, although guidance
trends have been toward a lull in convective activity in the wake of
this convection and that associated with a cold front during the
late afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, the warm sector
remains capped through much of the afternoon per a majority of
deterministic soundings. Although, any remnant outflow or
differential heating boundary from early day convection may serve as
enough of a forcing mechanism to spawn discrete convection during
the afternoon as lift from an approaching shortwave increases over
the region. If this convection does form, it will be in an
environment characterized by 2,000-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE and roughly
50 kts of deep-layer shear. This will favor supercells capable of
all hazards, with long curved hodographs favoring strong tornadoes,
especially if storms are able to latch on to any remnant boundaries
across the CWA.

Where the environment isn't contaminated from earlier rounds of
convection, additional updrafts are expected along the cold front as
it enters the area 4-5pm. Forcing from the front paired with lift
from the shortwave will lead to numerous updrafts along the front.
While this will be occurring within a similar environment detailed
prior, the number of updrafts paired with them occurring along the
front may lead to destructive interactions and congealing into line
segments and/or clusters. While this will tend to limit a strong
tornado threat, storms will still be capable of all severe hazards.
Convection is expected to depart the CWA with the front by 9-10pm.

Even with the FROPA Monday evening, the threat for convection will
continue on Tuesday. Guidance consensus has the front stalling just
south of the CWA early Tuesday and then buckling northward as a
shortwave moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest
through the day. This shortwave will send a subtle surface
reflection through the Mid South along the front, with a brief
period of warm air advection that will help force elevated
convection for areas mainly along and south of I-70. If the front
can move northward enough, shear profiles and instability amounts
favor supercells capable primarily of large hail across far
southeastern Missouri during the afternoon. Waning instability and
the front continuing southward will bring an end to rain chances
during the evening.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Both deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters keep upper-level
troughing slowly moving eastward over the eastern CONUS through the
long range forecast period. This will maintain northwesterly flow
over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday as several
rounds of high pressure pass through the region. As a result,
temperatures will run at or below climatological normals into the
weekend and mostly dry weather is expected.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Taking a look across the area, scattered thunderstorms continue
to progress eastwards across central MO this afternoon with an
advancing cold front mainly affecting KUIN, KJEF, and KCOU for
the moment. Expect these developing thunderstorms to move into
the St Louis metro between 5-7 PM this evening promoting mainly
MVFR to IFR cigs and IFR to LIFR vsbys periodically. Otherwise,
southerly to southeasterly winds will become more northwesterly
behind the passing frontal boundary to end the TAF period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ036-041-042-
     047>052-059>065.
IL...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ058>060-064-065-
     069-070-074-098>102.

&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WFO FSD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-280715-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through the day into this
evening. Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report wind damage, hail occurrence and
size, and tornado occurrence to NWS St. Louis.

Elmore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Hail             5 NE Columbia           39.01N 92.28W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Boone              MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
359 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Hail             3 NW Rush Hill          39.24N 91.78W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
400 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Hail             1 WNW Mexico            39.17N 91.88W
04/27/2026  E1.50 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
413 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Hail             3 NW Rush Hill          39.24N 91.78W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

            Second round of quarter-sized hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
443 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Hail             3 NW Rush Hill          39.24N 91.78W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Audrain            MO   Public

            third round of quarter-sized hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
446 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Hail             California              38.63N 92.57W
04/27/2026  E0.70 Inch       Moniteau           MO   Public

&&