River Flood Warning 85, NWS St. Louis, MO

622 
WGUS83 KLSX 131406
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
906 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC137-150215-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260615T1809Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.260613T0317Z.260613T1800Z.260614T1609Z.NO/
906 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

* WHEN...Until Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Wastewater lift station begins flooding at
  about this height.  Water was 16 ft deep in July 2008.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The river rose above flood stage on the evening
    of June 12.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.9 feet
    this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT      Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location           Stg     Stage   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Mid Fork Salt River
 Holliday          17.0    18.7    17.9  12.2  13.3  11.9  8.5



&&

LAT...LON 3958 9229 3959 9226 3955 9222 3954 9212
      3950 9201 3950 9196 3947 9196 3949 9210
      3951 9215 3951 9220 3953 9224


$$

Kimble

145 
WGUS83 KLSX 140310
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC137-151515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260616T0300Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.260613T0317Z.260614T0230Z.260615T0034Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

* WHEN...Until Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Wastewater lift station begins flooding at
  about this height.  Water was 16 ft deep in July 2008.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 9:30 PM CDT Saturday was 19.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT      Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location           Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mid Fork Salt River
 Holliday          17.0    19.4    12.4  10.5  9.7   7.7   6.3



&&

LAT...LON 3958 9229 3959 9226 3955 9222 3954 9212
      3950 9201 3950 9196 3947 9196 3949 9210
      3951 9215 3951 9220 3953 9224


$$

Peine

169 
WGUS83 KLSX 141409
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
909 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  South Fabius River near Taylor.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC137-160215-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260616T0232Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.260613T0317Z.260614T0230Z.260615T0032Z.NO/
909 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

* WHEN...Until Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Wastewater lift station begins flooding at
  about this height.  Water was 16 ft deep in July 2008.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 18.9 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The river rose above flood stage on the evening
    of June 12. It crested near 19.4 feet on June 13.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this
    evening and continue falling over the coming days.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT      Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location           Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mid Fork Salt River
 Holliday          17.0    18.9    12.0  7.8   6.2   5.5   5.2



&&

LAT...LON 3958 9229 3959 9226 3955 9222 3954 9212
      3950 9201 3950 9196 3947 9196 3949 9210
      3951 9215 3951 9220 3953 9224


$$

MOC127-160215-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-260616T1251Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.260611T0630Z.260613T1000Z.260615T0651Z.NO/
909 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...South Fabius River near Taylor.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Marion County Road 301 will be flooded
  north of County Road 150 near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 13.2 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The river rapidly rose above flood stage on the
    morning of June 11. It crested near 15.1 feet on June 13 before
    beginning to fall.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just
    after midnight tonight and continue falling over the coming days.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT     Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location          Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

South Fabius River
 Taylor           10.0    13.2    9.4   6.0   3.2   2.3   2.1



&&

LAT...LON 3989 9165 3993 9161 3991 9156 3991 9151
      3988 9151 3987 9162


$$

Kimble

778 
WGUS83 KLSX 150056
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
756 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

  South Fabius River near Taylor.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC137-160430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260616T0418Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.260613T0317Z.260614T0230Z.260615T0218Z.NO/
756 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

* WHEN...Until Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.5 feet, Water exits the right bank downstream of
  the State Highway A bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 7:30 PM CDT Sunday was 19.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
    this evening and continue falling to 4.3 feet Wednesday, June 24.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT      Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location           Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mid Fork Salt River
 Holliday          17.0    17.5    8.4   6.2   5.5   5.2   5.0



&&

LAT...LON 3958 9229 3959 9226 3955 9222 3954 9212
      3950 9201 3950 9196 3947 9196 3949 9210
      3951 9215 3951 9220 3953 9224


$$

MOC127-161300-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-260616T1704Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.260611T0630Z.260613T1000Z.260615T1104Z.NO/
756 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...South Fabius River near Taylor.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, Small levee immediately downstream of the
  gage is overtopped, flooding agricultural fields.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 11.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 7:30 PM CDT Sunday was 13.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 1.9 feet Sunday, June
    21.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT     Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location          Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

South Fabius River
 Taylor           10.0    11.6    6.0   3.5   2.3   2.1   2.0



&&

LAT...LON 3989 9165 3993 9161 3991 9156 3991 9151
      3988 9151 3987 9162


$$

MRB

575 
WGUS83 KLSX 151651
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1151 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

MOC137-151800-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260615T1651Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.260613T0317Z.260614T0230Z.260615T0248Z.NO/
1151 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 8.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling to a height
    near 6.0 feet by late this evening.



&&


All Times CDT      Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location           Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mid Fork Salt River
 Holliday          17.0    8.0     8.4   6.2   5.5   5.2   5.0



&&

LAT...LON 3958 9229 3959 9226 3955 9222 3954 9212
      3950 9201 3950 9196 3947 9196 3949 9210
      3951 9215 3951 9220 3953 9224


$$

Peine

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
607 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There are multiple chances for severe thunderstorms today, though
the best chance will be this evening along the cold front.

-Cool and dry conditions expected on Sunday and Monday before
 showers and thunderstorms return to the region Tuesday and
 beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Today's forecast will have many moving parts with several
opportunities for thunderstorms to develop. The best chance for
thunderstorms, as well as severe thunderstorms, remains this evening
along a cold front. Each chance is outlined below:

1. Morning convection: Showers and a few thunderstorms have formed
across eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri this morning, aided
by a weak low-level jet and warm air advection. Previous rounds of
guidance have shown this convection becoming more widespread,
developing into an MCS and pushing east across the forecast area
this morning. Confidence has started to decrease in this solution as
the latest CAM guidance keeps convection weak and disorganized
before it dissipates over the western forecast area this morning.

In the absence of a robust MCS cold pool, convection will indeed
weaken as it pushes east through the forecast area, outside the
influence of the low-level jet. Roughly 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will
be available during the mid-morning, with decreasing values east of
the Mississippi River. So if an MCS does develop and instability is
on the higher end of the spectrum, the system would be able to
maintain itself at least to the Mississippi River before starting to
diminish. Severe chances are low with the morning convection given
all the above caveats, but if an MCS does become rooted in the
boundary layer, damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Any
isolated severe thunderstorms will bring a risk for quarter-sized
hail.

2. Afternoon warm air advection convection:

Warm air advection will continue across the region this afternoon,
aided by a low-level jet that will only continue to strengthen
through the day. This will promote the development of isolated to
small clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Increasing instability to around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE area wide,
depending on how much the morning convection stunts
destabilization, plus 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear will encourage at
least a few cells to become severe. Quarter-sized hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible with any storms that become
severe. While I cannot rule out a tornado at this point, the
hodographs are not as favorable as they will be along the front
during the evening.

3. Evening convection along cold front:

The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be along a cold
front that will drop into the region this evening, with enhanced
lift from a mid-level shortwave. Initial development will be
isolated supercells across southern Iowa and northwest Missouri
where the best instability, shear, and lapse rates will be. As the
front and associated convection progress southeast into the forecast
area convection is expected to become so widespread that clusters
and bowing segments develop, though embedded supercells are still
possible. The main threat with any severe thunderstorms during this
period will be damaging winds, though quarter-sized hail and a
tornado cannot be ruled out within embedded supercells near the
front as hodographs become more curved. Instability will wane over
the evening and further southeast from the front, though there is
uncertainty in how quickly this will happen. Thus, confidence in
severe thunderstorm development across southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois is lower than over central and northeast Missouri.

4. Flash flood potential

Confidence is high that convection will be progressive enough in our
forecast area to preclude any widespread flash flood threat. The
best chance for any flash flooding would result front multiple
thunderstorms moving across the same area through the course of the
day. Where this happens, 2-3 inches of rain is possible, with
localized amounts up to 5" (via the HREF 24 hour LPMM), though 5"
amounts are representative of the worst case scenario. Northeast
Missouri is at the greatest risk for flash flooding, all other
things being equal, given the very wet antecedent conditions. Over
the past 72 hours portions of this area have been between 4-7" of
rain (MRMS Multi-Sensor Pass 2), while the remainder of the CWA has
seen generally less than 2".

Delia

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the wake of Saturday's cold front, cold air advection will drop
850 mb temperatures to around 10C by Sunday afternoon. The result
will be high temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year, in the 70s. Monday likewise will be cooler than normal
for mid June. Starting Tuesday, however, low-level flow will become
westerly then southwesterly, advecting warm, moist air back into the
region and giving high temperatures a boost. At the same time, mid-
level disturbances will propagate through the northwest mid-level
flow on the western side of an amplified mid-level trough. This
will bring a return of showers and thunderstorms to the region
Tuesday.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of and along a cold front that will push through the
forecast area. Uncertainty remains in the details of the timing of
the frontal passage, the favorability of the environment, and the
subsequent severe chances.

Delia

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are blooming across central Missouri
this morning and are expected to dissipate within a few hours.
They are already impacting the mid-Missouri terminals (KJEF,
KCOU), where brief reductions in visibility to MVFR flight
conditions are possible. Confidence is low in if this round of
showers and thunderstorms will impact the St. Louis metro
terminals (KSTL, KCPS, KSUS).

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
across the area, though confidence is low in where these will
form. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals today will be this evening as thunderstorms form along a
cold front and move southeast through the region. MVFR to IFR
visibilities are expected underneath any thunderstorms, and MVFR
stratus is expected to trail the front for a few hours before dry
air erodes this layer. Southerly winds will become variable during
the afternoon ahead of the front, and eventually northwesterly
behind the front.

Delia

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX