Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2026

River Flood Warning 82, NWS St. Louis, MO

June 12, 2026Callaway County, Osage County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Jun 12, 2026, 9:14 PM CDT for Callaway County, Osage County, Missouri. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 12, 2026, 9:14 PM CDT (02:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 17, 2026, 8:12 PM CDT
In force
5 days
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Callaway County, MO, Osage County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Missouri River near Chamois (CMSM7).

Action stage
15 ft
Minor stage
17 ft
Moderate stage
28 ft
Major stage
31 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

490 
WGUS43 KLSX 130214
FLWLSX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
914 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC027-151-141415-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0082.260613T0214Z-260617T1800Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260613T0600Z.260616T0600Z.NO/
914 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...From this evening to Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early
    Tuesday morning and continue falling to 15.9 feet Wednesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    MSG     17.0  17.1  16.9  16.5  MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

19
10 follow-up statements
484 
WGUS83 KLSX 131428
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
928 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC027-151-150230-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T1900Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T0600Z.260618T0700Z.NO/
928 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Friday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.5 feet
    early Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    MSG     17.4  19.1  19.4  18.4  16.5



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

Kimble
998 
WGUS83 KLSX 140312
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1012 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC027-151-151515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T1400Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T0600Z.260618T0130Z.NO/
1012 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.7 feet
    early Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    MSG     18.0  18.7  17.7  16.3  MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

Peine
714 
WGUS83 KLSX 141434
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
934 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River at Hermann.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC027-151-160245-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T0000Z.260617T1200Z.NO/
934 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.7 feet
    tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    MSG     18.3  18.5  17.0  15.5  12.7



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

MOC073-139-160245-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0086.260615T0800Z-260619T0000Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260615T0800Z.260616T0000Z.260617T1800Z.NO/
934 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, The southern end of School House Road south
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 20.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
    tonight to a crest of 21.6 feet tomorrow evening. It will then
    fall below flood stage early Wednesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Missouri River
 Hermann      21.0    20.4    21.2  21.6  21.1  20.1  17.1



&&

LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
      3867 9144 3865 9160


$$

Kimble
967 
WGUS83 KLSX 150107
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
807 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River at Hermann.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC073-139-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0086.260615T0600Z-260619T0300Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260615T0600Z.260616T0000Z.260617T2100Z.NO/
807 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, The southern end of School House Road south
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 20.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just
    after midnight tonight to a crest of 21.8 feet tomorrow evening.
    It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Missouri River
 Hermann      21.0    20.7    21.7  21.2  20.1  17.0  14.5



&&

LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
      3867 9144 3865 9160


$$

MOC027-151-161315-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T0000Z.260617T1200Z.NO/
807 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.0 feet
    tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    MSG     18.7  17.0  15.4  12.7  MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

MRB
085 
WGUS83 KLSX 151640
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC027-151-170445-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260618T1700Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T0000Z.260617T0500Z.NO/
1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:50 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 12:50 PM CDT Sunday was 17.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.6 feet
    this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    17.0    18.4  16.4  13.6  11.5  9.7



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

Peine
745 
WGUS83 KLSX 160203
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
903 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River at Hermann.

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC073-139-171415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260619T0712Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260615T0630Z.260616T1200Z.260618T0112Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 22.3 feet, Southern portions of Old Rock Road and
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 22.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 22.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.2 feet
    Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Missouri River
 Hermann      21.0    22.0    21.5  19.9  16.6  14.7  13.5



&&

LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
      3867 9144 3865 9160


$$

MOC027-151-171415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260618T2136Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T0600Z.260617T0936Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:50 PM CDT Sunday, June 14 the stage was 17.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 12:50 PM CDT Sunday was 17.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.6 feet
    just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    17.0    16.8  13.7  11.6  9.8   MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

BAH
151 
WGUS83 KLSX 161513
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River at Hermann.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC027-151-180315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T1800Z.260617T1200Z.NO/
1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 9:45 AM CDT Tuesday was 18.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.4 feet
    this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    18.3    17.0  13.7  11.3  9.5   8.5



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

MOC073-139-180315-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260619T0712Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260615T0630Z.260616T1430Z.260618T0112Z.NO/
1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 22.3 feet, Southern portions of Old Rock Road and
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 22.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 9:30 AM CDT Tuesday was 22.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow evening and continue falling to 12.5 feet Tuesday, June
    23.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Missouri River
 Hermann      21.0    22.2    21.7  19.9  16.6  14.5  13.4



&&

LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
      3867 9144 3865 9160


$$

Maples
928 
WGUS83 KLSX 170310
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...

  Missouri River at St. Charles.

  Mississippi River at Chester.

  Mississippi River at Clarksville.

  Mississippi River at Mel Price LD.

  Meramec River near Arnold.

  Illinois River at Hardin.

  Mississippi River at Louisiana.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...

  Missouri River at Hermann.

  Missouri River near Chamois.

  Illinois River at Valley City.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC183-189-181515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260618T1800Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.260616T1747Z.260617T0300Z.260617T1200Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at St. Charles.

* WHEN...Until Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Downstream near this stage, Missouri Route
  H at Island Road and agricultural bottomland may begin flooding,
  depending on Mississippi River flow and backwater.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 25.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 25.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 17.9 feet Sunday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 St. Charles  25.0    25.2    24.0  21.8  19.6  18.2  MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3892 9036 3884 9013 3878 9016 3883 9031
      3869 9045 3860 9069 3867 9076


$$

ILC077-157-MOC157-186-181515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0088.000000T0000Z-260621T1108Z/
/CHSI2.1.ER.260615T1516Z.260618T1800Z.260620T0508Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Chester.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, Unleveed islands near Chester and the
  prison farm floods.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 28.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 28.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 28.8 feet
    early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 27.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Mississippi River
 Chester         27.0    28.0    28.7  28.6  26.3  23.5  21.8



&&

LAT...LON 3799 8992 3790 8977 3786 8973 3776 8945
      3769 8941 3769 8959 3786 8995 3795 9005


$$

MOC073-139-181515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260619T0900Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260615T0630Z.260617T0000Z.260618T0300Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 22.3 feet, Southern portions of Old Rock Road and
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 22.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 9:30 PM CDT Tuesday was 22.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
    tomorrow evening and continue falling to 12.4 feet Tuesday, June
    23.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 Hermann      21.0    22.3    20.0  16.6  14.4  13.4  12.9



&&

LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
      3867 9144 3865 9160


$$

ILC013-MOC163-181515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
/CLKM7.1.ER.260613T0630Z.260615T1030Z.260617T1800Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Clarksville.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 25.5 feet, State Route P east of Elsberry begins
  flooding just east of the levee.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 25.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 25.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early
    tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 21.2 feet Tuesday,
    June 23.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Mississippi River
 Clarksville     25.0    25.5    24.2  23.1  22.4  22.2  21.9



&&

LAT...LON 3939 9097 3946 9088 3940 9081 3932 9075
      3925 9071 3925 9083 3930 9090 3932 9088
      3936 9092 3935 9095


$$

MOC027-151-181515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T0224Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T1445Z.260617T1424Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 9:45 AM CDT Tuesday was 18.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 8.3 feet Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    18.3    14.0  11.5  9.5   8.6   MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

ILC149-171-181515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0093.260620T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.260620T0000Z.260623T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.

* WHEN...From Friday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
  is flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage Friday
    evening and continue rising to 14.3 feet Monday evening.
    Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Illinois River
 Valley City  14.0    13.3    13.6  13.9  14.0  14.1  14.2



&&

LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3969 9056 3962 9052
      3952 9051 3952 9059 3964 9062 3965 9066
      3967 9065


$$

ILC119-MOC183-181515-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-260619T1800Z/
/ALNI2.1.ER.260617T0341Z.260617T1200Z.260618T1200Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Mel Price LD.

* WHEN...Until Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.8 feet, Unprotected farm land begins to flood

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 21.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
    this evening to a crest of 21.2 feet tomorrow morning. It will
    then fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Mississippi River
 Mel Price LD    21.0    21.0    21.0  19.6  17.7  16.4  15.7



&&

LAT...LON 3889 9014 3889 9009 3881 9001 3881 9017
      3884 9018


$$

MOC099-189-181515-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-260620T1000Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.260617T0900Z.260618T0000Z.260619T0400Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Meramec River near Arnold.

* WHEN...Until late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...At 24.7 feet, Hawkins Road south of Meramec Bottom Road
  begins flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 23.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
    tonight to a crest of 24.4 feet tomorrow evening. It will then
    fall below flood stage late Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Meramec River
 Arnold       24.0    23.8    24.4  23.5  20.6  17.0  14.9



&&

LAT...LON 3847 9044 3847 9032 3840 9033 3837 9036
      3841 9036 3842 9037 3843 9036 3845 9036
      3845 9041


$$

ILC013-061-083-181515-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HARI2.1.ER.260616T1030Z.260622T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Illinois River at Hardin.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Flood Stage.  Lowland flooding of
  unprotected agricultural land begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 25.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 25.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood
    stage at 25.2 feet.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Illinois River
 Hardin       25.0    25.2    25.4  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.6



&&

LAT...LON 3952 9064 3952 9052 3942 9054 3935 9051
      3931 9053 3898 9052 3897 9049 3890 9054
      3898 9062 3923 9065


$$

ILC149-MOC163-181515-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-260619T0900Z/
/LUSM7.1.ER.260612T1715Z.260615T1000Z.260618T0300Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Louisiana.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 15.0 feet, The first quarter mile of Edison Avenue
  beyond the railroad tracks begins flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 15.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 10:00 PM CDT Tuesday was 16.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
    tomorrow evening and continue falling to 12.2 feet Tuesday, June
    23.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Mississippi River
 Louisiana       15.0    15.7    14.6  13.6  13.0  12.8  12.6



&&

LAT...LON 3946 9110 3953 9099 3946 9088 3939 9097
      3941 9100 3939 9103


$$

Elmore
900 
WGUS83 KLSX 171719
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St. Charles.

  Missouri River at Hermann.

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC183-189-190530-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260619T0600Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.260616T1747Z.260617T0800Z.260618T0000Z.NO/
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at St. Charles.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Downstream near this stage, Missouri Route
  H at Island Road and agricultural bottomland may begin flooding,
  depending on Mississippi River flow and backwater.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 25.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 12:00 PM CDT Wednesday was 25.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this
    evening and continue falling to 17.8 feet Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 St. Charles  25.0    25.1    24.4  22.6  20.4  18.8  17.8



&&

LAT...LON 3892 9036 3884 9013 3878 9016 3883 9031
      3869 9045 3860 9069 3867 9076


$$

MOC073-139-190530-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260619T1300Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260615T0630Z.260617T0000Z.260618T0700Z.NO/
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.

* WHEN...Until Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, The southern end of School House Road south
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 21.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 11:30 AM CDT Wednesday was 22.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just
    after midnight tonight and continue falling to 12.2 feet
    Wednesday, June 24.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 Hermann      21.0    21.7    20.5  17.4  15.0  13.8  13.1



&&

LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
      3867 9144 3865 9160


$$

MOC027-151-190445-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260619T0440Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T1445Z.260617T1640Z.NO/
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 17.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 7:00 AM CDT Wednesday was 17.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 8.3 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    17.4    15.0  12.3  10.2  9.0   8.3



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

Fuchs
191 
WGUS83 KLSX 180112
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
812 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St. Charles.

  Missouri River near Chamois.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

MOC183-189-180215-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260618T0112Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.260616T1747Z.260617T0800Z.260617T2210Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 24.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 22.7 feet Friday
    morning.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 St. Charles  25.0    24.9    24.5  22.7  20.7  19.0  18.3



&&

LAT...LON 3892 9036 3884 9013 3878 9016 3883 9031
      3869 9045 3860 9069 3867 9076


$$

MOC027-151-180215-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260618T0112Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.260616T1445Z.260617T1620Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Missouri River near Chamois.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Wednesday the estimated stage was 16.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to near 12.5 feet Friday
    morning.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Missouri River
 Chamois      17.0    17.4    15.3  12.5  10.3  9.5   9.3



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
      3864 9181 3858 9194


$$

Gosselin

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 12, 6:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Thunderstorms are possible Saturday morning across portions of the region. The severe weather threat with these is low.
  • Additional thunderstorms are expected along a cold front Saturday evening. These will have a greater threat for damaging winds.
  • Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected Sunday into early next week.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 6:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
605 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible Saturday morning across portions of the
region. The severe weather threat with these is low.

- Additional thunderstorms are expected along a cold front Saturday
evening. These will have a greater threat for damaging winds.

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A weak area of high pressure is currently situated across eastern
Missouri and will quickly slide eastward into the Ohio Valley
tonight. Low-level winds will turn out of the south/southwest,
with increasing mid/high level clouds ahead of a midlevel
disturbance moving eastward out of the south-central Plains.
Surface winds turning out of the south along with the
aforementioned increase in clouds are expected to stunt the
temperature drop overnight, with lows mainly in the low to mid 60s
(close to seasonal averages). Dry conditions are forecast for the
most part overnight, though some low chances (20-40%) of showers
and thunderstorms return to parts of central/southeast Missouri
toward daybreak Saturday as low-level moisture convergence
increases.

Better chances (40-60%) for showers and thunderstorms hold off until
after sunrise Saturday morning as storms are likely to move in from
the west. There is some uncertainty on the timing as some CAMs have
pretty high coverage early in the morning whereas others actually
move an MCV in later in the day toward southeast Missouri. Any
activity early in the morning should be elevated, at least
initially, with hail to the size of quarters possible in the
strongest cores. The low-level jet does not abate at all during the
day, so the expectation is for any ongoing showers and thunderstorms
Saturday morning to at the very least percolate into the early
afternoon hours. In fact, moisture convergence actually strengthens
throughout the day on deterministic models, with the nose of the jet
focused on southwest/south central Missouri. Storms may try and get
more surface-based with time, which would also increase the risk for
damaging winds in a multicellular clusters/line segments that manage
to get a consolidated, balanced cold pool. This threat likely would
be higher in the scenario where an MCV moves toward southeast
Missouri more toward midday/early afternoon. The best chances for
severe weather (and thunderstorms in general) are a bit further to
our southwest where the low-level moisture convergence should be
stronger and where higher instability is likely to be located. In
addition to the possible strong to severe thunderstorms, locally
heavy rainfall may be a threat. There is some concern for training
of thunderstorms in an environment with increasingly deep warm cloud
depths and high precipitable water values (~1.80"; >95th percentile
of climatology). This area of the CWA has largely missed out on the
rainfall over the past 72 hours. In fact, MRMS pass 2 72-hour totals
are largely in the 0.10-0.50" range. Therefore, while antecedent
conditions are not exactly "dry", they aren't nearly as susceptible
as parts of northeast Missouri/west central Illinois where 4-8" of
rain has fallen. With the best threat for sustained, robust
convection staying to our southwest, will hold off on a flash flood
watch. The LPMM from the 12Z HREF only shows some isolated pockets
of 1-2" of rain through Saturday afternoon across central/southeast
Missouri. While I could not rule out some higher totals if there is
sustained training, even 2-3" over a 3-hour period is largely less
than the latest flash-flood guidance.

Attention heading toward the early evening will shift northwestward
toward an approaching surface cold front. At least scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop along the boundary across northwest
Missouri into southeastern Iowa. The higher coverage (and likely
better chance of severe) of thunderstorms may stay to our west where
surface convergence is greatest. How much instability will reside
across our northern counties is a bit uncertain for early Saturday
evening, not so much due to the earlier convection (which should
stay well to the south), but due to spread with respect to the
moisture return ahead of the boundary. The IQR spread for
instability in northeast Missouri/west central Illinois is around
1000-2000 J/kg on the 12Z HREF centered on 7PM Saturday evening. So,
while there is high confidence in sufficient deep-layer shear (35-
40+ knots) for organized strong-severe convection, there is a lot
less confidence in instability. In addition, as alluded to above,
the stronger surface convergence is very likely to reside well to
our west moreso across eastern Kansas. While there is still likely
enough surface convergence for at least some convective initiation,
as we saw yesterday, weaker surface convergence does lead the
severity of the storms more into question. Storms may tend to be
more outflow dominant once again, which may tend to keep winds more
on the subsevere side. Speaking of winds, that does look to be the
primary threat for most of the area, though large hail is certainly
possible through early evening across portions of northeast Missouri
and west-central Illinois. Those locations also may have a brief
flash flood threat given the susceptibility, but overall storms
should be quite progressive. Initial storms should be supercells
given the mostly orthogonal component of the deep-layer shear vector
to the cold front. Storms should tend to grow more upscale due to
the moderately strong linear forcing along the front. With time,
storms should tend to weaken through the night as deep-layer shear
weakens and storms are likely to head into a more hostile (i.e.,
less instability) environment. Parts of east central and southeast
Missouri as well as southwest Illinois are more likely to be
impacted by earlier convective activity.

Gosselin

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

(Sunday - Monday Night)

Behind Saturday night's cold front, much cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the mid-Mississippi Valley. The incoming air mass looks
particularly strong for this time of year, characterized by 850-hPa
temperatures below +10C (~5th percentile), anomalous surface high
pressure (~1020 hPa; >90th percentile), and low dewpoints (50s;
~10th percentile). Not surprisingly, a period of well-below normal
temperatures is expected with this air mass along with dry weather.
Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s are forecast. These values
would be about 10 degrees below normal for the middle of June.

(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with respect to the
synoptic pattern across the CONUS through much of next week.
Mid/upper level northwest flow will remain entrenched across the
eastern two-thirds of the US, with multiple midlevel shortwave
troughs moving quickly across the Upper Midwest. This means multiple
cold frontal passages for our neck of the woods, and timing these
features is a bit difficult this far out. That being said, the first
one is likely late Tuesday, with another for Wednesday night. Each
of these fronts may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region,
with the better signal for Wednesday night (50-70% chance). That
front will have to be watched, as there will be ample deep-layer
shear (40-50+ knots). Moisture return/instability will again be the
question mark along where surface convergence is strongest.

Temperatures are expected to moderate through Wednesday ahead of the
second and stronger cold front back closer to normal. At least
slightly cooler readings are expected to end the week, but there is
still a lot of spread with both the timing of that second cold front
and with respect to how cool the incoming air mass will be for late
week.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The main concern during this TAF period will be the potential for
more showers and thunderstorms, particularly Saturday morning.
While VFR conditions are expected through this evening and into
the early overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across parts of central Missouri very late tonight and
slowly move east through the morning. These will be most likely to
impact COU/JEF with bursts of heavy rain and perhaps some hail as
well, with visibility reductions also possible. Remnants of these
thunderstorms may also reach STL/SUS/CPS later in the morning but
confidence is lower this far east.

This activity is expected to clear by early afternoon, but another
round of showers and thunderstorms, including potentially severe
thunderstorms, may impact terminals tomorrow evening and
overnight. This currently only impacts the end of the UIN and 30
hour STL TAFs, but will need to add thunderstorm mention to the
remaining terminals with the 06Z issuance.

BRC

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 12, 9:36 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXPike7 days
Jun 12, 9:37 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXPike7 days
Jun 13, 6:38 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXMonroe53 hr
Jun 13, 9:26 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXGasconade, Montgomery5 days
Jun 13, 11:41 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXMarion5 days
Jun 13, 11:43 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXPerry, Sainte Genevieve21 days
Jun 13, 1:48 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXLewis3 hr
Jun 13, 2:18 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXMarion3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2026Every river flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.