River Flood Warning 52, NWS St. Louis, MO

961 
WGUS83 KLSX 280940
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
440 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Moreau River near Jefferson City.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC051-292145-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260430T0441Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.260428T0839Z.260428T1200Z.260428T2241Z.NO/
440 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Moreau River near Jefferson City.

* WHEN...Until Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Near this height, Zion Road will be closed.
  This road is about 12 river miles upstream of the gage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 16.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.9 feet
    this morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT  Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location       Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Moreau River
 Jefferson Cit 17.0    16.9    6.1   3.9   2.6   2.3   MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3850 9210 3847 9224
      3850 9235 3856 9236 3857 9233 3854 9226


$$

Pfahler

071 
WGUS83 KLSX 281447
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
947 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Moreau River near Jefferson City.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Even 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock you off your feet
and a depth of 2 feet will float your car. Never try to walk, swim,
or drive through such swift water. If you come upon flood waters,
stop, turn around and go another way.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC051-300300-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260430T1236Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.260428T0839Z.260429T0000Z.260429T0636Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Moreau River near Jefferson City.

* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Near this height, Buffalo Road will be
  closed.  This road is about 8.7 river miles upstream of the gage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 9:30 AM CDT Tuesday was 18.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.7 feet
    this evening. It will then fall below flood stage just after
    midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT  Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location       Stg     Stage   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Moreau River
 Jefferson Cit 17.0    18.3    10.7  4.6   2.8   2.3   2.2



&&

LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3850 9210 3847 9224
      3850 9235 3856 9236 3857 9233 3854 9226


$$

Fuchs

517 
WGUS83 KLSX 290152
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
852 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Meramec River near Arnold.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Moreau River near Jefferson City.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC051-290300-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260429T0152Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.260428T0839Z.260428T2045Z.260429T0113Z.NO/
852 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Moreau River near Jefferson City.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 16.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 2.2 feet Sunday
    evening.



&&


All Times CDT  Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location       Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Moreau River
 Jefferson Cit 17.0    16.7    3.9   2.2   2.3   2.2   MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3850 9210 3847 9224
      3850 9235 3856 9236 3857 9233 3854 9226


$$

MOC099-189-301400-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0039.260429T0730Z-260505T1930Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.260429T0730Z.260502T0000Z.260504T1330Z.NO/
852 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Meramec River near Arnold.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 27.0 feet, Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 23.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just
    after midnight tonight to a crest of 29.1 feet Friday evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Meramec River
 Arnold       24.0    23.3    27.6  28.8  29.0  27.0  24.2



&&

LAT...LON 3847 9044 3847 9032 3840 9033 3837 9036
      3841 9036 3842 9037 3843 9036 3845 9036
      3845 9041


$$

Jaja

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1110 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While periods of storms are expected through Monday morning, the
  most potent thunderstorms will occur through early evening.

- Thunderstorms this evening will be capable of damaging wind
  gusts, large hail, and strong tornadoes.

- A period of cool, calm weather is expected mid-week through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Storms across southeastern Missouri continue to butt up against an
instability gradient draped from north to south across Missouri.
The warm air advection feeding these storms will also push greater
instability slowly northeastward through this morning, though
propagation vectors will favor convection continuing to move east-
southeastward generally away from the CWA or into an unfavorable
environment. Additionally, the low-level jet refocusing across
Kansas will continue to support the downward trend in convection
across southeastern Missouri early this morning. Any linger storms
over the next couple of hours will be capable mainly of large hail,
though there is also a very low damaging wind and tornado threat for
storms that remain surface based.

Our attention turns to the storms over eastern Kansas that are
propagating eastward with the nose of the low-level jet. With the
nose of this low-level jet edging into northeastern Missouri later
this morning, the focus for these storms will spread into portions
of the CWA north of I-70. Vertical thermal profiles suggest that this
convection will be elevated, mitigating a threat of damaging wind
gusts and/or tornadoes. However, with around 40 kts of effective
shear and building MUCAPE, there is a low chance for isolated
instances of large hail.

How long this convection lingers is uncertain, although guidance
trends have been toward a lull in convective activity in the wake of
this convection and that associated with a cold front during the
late afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, the warm sector
remains capped through much of the afternoon per a majority of
deterministic soundings. Although, any remnant outflow or
differential heating boundary from early day convection may serve as
enough of a forcing mechanism to spawn discrete convection during
the afternoon as lift from an approaching shortwave increases over
the region. If this convection does form, it will be in an
environment characterized by 2,000-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE and roughly
50 kts of deep-layer shear. This will favor supercells capable of
all hazards, with long curved hodographs favoring strong tornadoes,
especially if storms are able to latch on to any remnant boundaries
across the CWA.

Where the environment isn't contaminated from earlier rounds of
convection, additional updrafts are expected along the cold front as
it enters the area 4-5pm. Forcing from the front paired with lift
from the shortwave will lead to numerous updrafts along the front.
While this will be occurring within a similar environment detailed
prior, the number of updrafts paired with them occurring along the
front may lead to destructive interactions and congealing into line
segments and/or clusters. While this will tend to limit a strong
tornado threat, storms will still be capable of all severe hazards.
Convection is expected to depart the CWA with the front by 9-10pm.

Even with the FROPA Monday evening, the threat for convection will
continue on Tuesday. Guidance consensus has the front stalling just
south of the CWA early Tuesday and then buckling northward as a
shortwave moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest
through the day. This shortwave will send a subtle surface
reflection through the Mid South along the front, with a brief
period of warm air advection that will help force elevated
convection for areas mainly along and south of I-70. If the front
can move northward enough, shear profiles and instability amounts
favor supercells capable primarily of large hail across far
southeastern Missouri during the afternoon. Waning instability and
the front continuing southward will bring an end to rain chances
during the evening.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Both deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters keep upper-level
troughing slowly moving eastward over the eastern CONUS through the
long range forecast period. This will maintain northwesterly flow
over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday as several
rounds of high pressure pass through the region. As a result,
temperatures will run at or below climatological normals into the
weekend and mostly dry weather is expected.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A cold front has passed through the forecast area, leaving
northwest winds in its wake. MVFR ceilings are also swirling into
the area and are expected to persist at least on and off through
much of the day Tuesday. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly during the afternoon and
evening. Timing and direct impacts are uncertain. PROB30 groups
reflect the best estimated window.

Jaja

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-290300-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Jaja

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
926 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     Tornado          Germantown              38.55N 89.54W
04/27/2026                   Clinton            IL   Emergency Mngr

            Large trees down, street signs blown down.

&&

Carney

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
947 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Centralia               38.53N 89.13W
04/27/2026                   Marion             IL   Emergency Mngr

            power lines down all over town. time
            estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1151 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Rain             Staunton                39.01N 89.79W
04/27/2026  M4.40 Inch       Macoupin           IL   Trained Spotter

            Via social media--daily total.

&&

Pfahler