River Flood Warning 51, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While periods of storms are expected through Monday morning, the
  most potent thunderstorms will occur through early evening.

- Thunderstorms this evening will be capable of damaging wind
  gusts, large hail, and strong tornadoes.

- A period of cool, calm weather is expected mid-week through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Storms across southeastern Missouri continue to butt up against an
instability gradient draped from north to south across Missouri.
The warm air advection feeding these storms will also push greater
instability slowly northeastward through this morning, though
propagation vectors will favor convection continuing to move east-
southeastward generally away from the CWA or into an unfavorable
environment. Additionally, the low-level jet refocusing across
Kansas will continue to support the downward trend in convection
across southeastern Missouri early this morning. Any linger storms
over the next couple of hours will be capable mainly of large hail,
though there is also a very low damaging wind and tornado threat for
storms that remain surface based.

Our attention turns to the storms over eastern Kansas that are
propagating eastward with the nose of the low-level jet. With the
nose of this low-level jet edging into northeastern Missouri later
this morning, the focus for these storms will spread into portions
of the CWA north of I-70. Vertical thermal profiles suggest that this
convection will be elevated, mitigating a threat of damaging wind
gusts and/or tornadoes. However, with around 40 kts of effective
shear and building MUCAPE, there is a low chance for isolated
instances of large hail.

How long this convection lingers is uncertain, although guidance
trends have been toward a lull in convective activity in the wake of
this convection and that associated with a cold front during the
late afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, the warm sector
remains capped through much of the afternoon per a majority of
deterministic soundings. Although, any remnant outflow or
differential heating boundary from early day convection may serve as
enough of a forcing mechanism to spawn discrete convection during
the afternoon as lift from an approaching shortwave increases over
the region. If this convection does form, it will be in an
environment characterized by 2,000-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE and roughly
50 kts of deep-layer shear. This will favor supercells capable of
all hazards, with long curved hodographs favoring strong tornadoes,
especially if storms are able to latch on to any remnant boundaries
across the CWA.

Where the environment isn't contaminated from earlier rounds of
convection, additional updrafts are expected along the cold front as
it enters the area 4-5pm. Forcing from the front paired with lift
from the shortwave will lead to numerous updrafts along the front.
While this will be occurring within a similar environment detailed
prior, the number of updrafts paired with them occurring along the
front may lead to destructive interactions and congealing into line
segments and/or clusters. While this will tend to limit a strong
tornado threat, storms will still be capable of all severe hazards.
Convection is expected to depart the CWA with the front by 9-10pm.

Even with the FROPA Monday evening, the threat for convection will
continue on Tuesday. Guidance consensus has the front stalling just
south of the CWA early Tuesday and then buckling northward as a
shortwave moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest
through the day. This shortwave will send a subtle surface
reflection through the Mid South along the front, with a brief
period of warm air advection that will help force elevated
convection for areas mainly along and south of I-70. If the front
can move northward enough, shear profiles and instability amounts
favor supercells capable primarily of large hail across far
southeastern Missouri during the afternoon. Waning instability and
the front continuing southward will bring an end to rain chances
during the evening.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Both deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters keep upper-level
troughing slowly moving eastward over the eastern CONUS through the
long range forecast period. This will maintain northwesterly flow
over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday as several
rounds of high pressure pass through the region. As a result,
temperatures will run at or below climatological normals into the
weekend and mostly dry weather is expected.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Ongoing line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through the
STL Metro area at the start of this TAF period. Storms along this
line will be capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
The line will gradually move east-southeast and exit the forecast
area by 03-04Z. Remainder of the period will generally see calmer
conditions with VFR cloud cover. However, another round of showers
and isolated TSRA will spread into the forecast area from the
southwest after 18-20Z Tuesday. This will mostly impact COU/JEF
during this TAF period, but could spread MVFR ceilings into the
SUS/STL vicinity after 28/23Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Broken line of +TSRA will bring a potential
for erratic, possibly damaging winds to STL through 01Z-02Z. Radar
trends show the strongest thunderstorm cores skirting around the
terminal, though additional development is possible within the
next hour. After TSRA exit to the east, VFR conditions dominate
until late in this TAF period (after 29/02Z) when MVFR conditions
could move in from the southwest.

WFO LSX

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Saint
     Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Saint Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-290300-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Jaja

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
750 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Richmond Heights    38.63N 90.31W
04/27/2026                   St. Louis City     MO   Emergency Mngr

            power line down on McCausland.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
754 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Swansea             38.53N 89.99W
04/27/2026  E55 MPH          St. Clair          IL   Public

&&

MCF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
838 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Farmington              37.78N 90.43W
04/27/2026  E60 MPH          St. Francois       MO   Trained Spotter

&&

Carney

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
907 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Hail             Farmington              37.79N 90.43W
04/27/2026  E1.25 Inch       St. Francois       MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
926 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     Tornado          Germantown              38.55N 89.54W
04/27/2026                   Clinton            IL   Emergency Mngr

            Large trees down, street signs blown down.

&&

Carney

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
947 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Centralia               38.53N 89.13W
04/27/2026                   Marion             IL   Emergency Mngr

            power lines down all over town. time
            estimated.

&&