Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
509 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* This evening and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible, with the SPC putting us under a Slight Risk for severe
  weather. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the primary concerns.

* Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s for
  Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Some daily max
  temperature records could be challenged.

* Tuesday and Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
  cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal for later
  this week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 509 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208 has been issued until 1100PM
EDT/1000PM CDT for all of our southern IN counties to as far south
as Hancock, Breckinridge, Hardin, Nelson counties in KY and as far
east as Trimble, Henry, Franklin, Henry and Trimble counties in
north central KY. After the first round of storms from earlier today
the atmosphere was able to destabilize quickly as we are well within
the warm sector. Dew points are in the mid/upper 60s with in the
watch. An MCV continues to move into the area with the bulk of the
current convection taking place across southern IN into central IN.
While we have good instability, steep low to mid-level lapse rates,
overall shear profile seems a bit lacking. With this in mind we
continue to see hail and gusty damaging winds as the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Clearing skies across the area following this morning's showers and
thunderstorms has allowed temperatures to rapidly climb into the
upper 70s/low 80s. Temperatures will continue to grow into the low-
to-mid 80s over the next few hours before a mid-level disturbance
and a MCS moves through the area this evening. With robust southerly
flow in place, dew point values have also rapidly rose into the mid-
60s, allowing for ample moisture as we prepare for another round of
potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorms this evening.

Instability overall has quickly rose over the past few hours, with
SBCAPE values ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg currently, and MLCAPE
and MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. With the strong
diurnal heating, recent model guidance has us mixing up to near the
750 mb level, with fairly steep low-level lapse rates also present.
As a result, this has also help increase our DCAPE values to over
700 J/kg, increasing as you go further south. An area of more robust
bulk shear (>30 kt) has developed in SW Kentucky and will shift
northeastward in the coming hours, helping set up our next round of
showers and storms.

With our cloud bases from this morning and afternoon remaining
fairly elevated, our main concerns for this upcoming round will
mostly be damaging winds and isolated severe hail. The cells over
time may form into a bowing/linear segment over time depending on
the evolution of the system, which would then quickly transition our
threat to mostly severe winds. With the wind shear that would be in
place, a brief spin up tornado cannot be ruled out, but is very
unlikely given the higher cloud bases/LCLs in place. This system
will slowly move off the northeast during the overnight hours,
exiting by Sunday morning. While near-surface capping will quickly
develop after sunset as a result of an intensifying LLJ and the loss
of diurnal heating, elevated instability will remain in place and
allow the storng-to-severe threat to continue into the night for any
storms that persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday - Monday...

Once the system departs to the east early Sunday, conditions for the
next couple of days are going to be dry and very warm. With the
ridge over the eastern CONUS becoming more amplified and the center
of the surface high residing over the Atlantic, persistent southerly
flow will allow ample WAA to move over the region. Temperatures will
be in the upper 80s both days, with some locations getting above 90.
LREF guidance gives most areas south of the Ohio River a 35-50%
chance of reaching 90 on Sunday, with probabilities increasing to 40-
55% on Monday. Dew points both days will be in the low-to-mid 60s,
so expect rather muggy conditions. A few weak perturbations may pass
over the far western portions of the CWA, providing a quick shower
or storm, though chances right now are currently low (10-20%).

Monday Night - Wednesday Night...

Off to the west, a robust shortwave trough ejects from the central
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. The cold front from its associated
surface low trails to the south and west, slowly moving towards the
Ohio Valley and arriving late Tuesday. With southerly flow
continuing ahead of the front, temperatures during the afternoon
will again be very warm, with highs in the upper 80s/near 90. Once
the front moves in, more widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will continue through late Wednesday as the front
slowly drifts southward. With the front overhead on Wednesday, a
semi-decent temperature gradient will be in place, with southern
Indiana in the upper 70s and south central Kentucky in the upper
80s.

Thursday - Saturday...

Rain chances will slowly decrease as the front departs to the south,
and broad northerly flow will allow afternoon temperatures to be
closer to normal for this time of year with highs in the mid 70s.
The reprieve from drier conditions does not last long as a shortwave
trough develops over the southern Plains and ejects to the
northeast. This will help the previously mentioned frontal boundary
lift back northward and set us up for another round of showers and
occasional storms that would last until the end of the forecast
period. Long-range guidance is not as certain on how far northward
the front will lift given the preceding surface high pressure over
our area to the north of the front. Temperatures each of the three
days will be in the mid-to-upper 70s, with some places approaching
80 on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

A brief break from this morning/early afternoon's showers and
thunderstorms is currently ongoing for most places, with the next
round expected to begin around 21z. Ceilings and visibilities should
remain above VFR, but a heavier downpour could very briefly reduce
ceilings and visibilities. Coverage of showers and storms will
decrease after 0z, though a PROB30 was included across the terminals
given the scattered nature in recent guidance. Occasional increased
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening, quickly diminishing
after sunset. Sunday will have dry and VFR conditions, with
southerly gusts increasing during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...BTN
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BEN

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
531 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Hail             2 ESE Brownstown        38.37N 86.47W
05/16/2026  M1.00 Inch       Crawford           IN   Emergency Mngr

            Several public reports of quarter size hail
            from the Crawford County EM.

&&

CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
536 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ084-090-091-KYZ025-162200-
Crawford IN-Floyd IN-Harrison IN-Meade KY-
536 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HARRISON...EAST CENTRAL
CRAWFORD...WESTERN FLOYD AND NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES THROUGH 600
PM EDT...

At 536 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corydon, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corydon, Greenville, Lanesville, Leavenworth, Crandall, New
Middletown, Moberly, Byrneville, White Cloud, and Bradford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 8588 3818 8590 3815 8591 3808 8625
      3820 8634 3842 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 243DEG 28KT 3816 8622

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CSG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
538 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ076-077-084-090-162215-
Crawford IN-Orange IN-Washington IN-Harrison IN-
538 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...EASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 538 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near English, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paoli, English, Carefree Town, Orleans, Stampers Creek, Palmyra,
Marengo, Milltown, Campbellsburg, and Hardinsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
south central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3842 8600 3842 8603 3840 8603 3820 8634
      3851 8657 3869 8644 3869 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 230DEG 29KT 3843 8642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SRW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
555 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ077-078-090>092-KYZ030-162230-
Washington IN-Floyd IN-Clark IN-Scott IN-Harrison IN-Jefferson KY-
555 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN
CLARK...FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Salem to 9 miles west of New
Albany to near Valley Station. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Jeffersonville, New Albany, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews,
Shively, Lyndon, Hurstbourne, Graymoor-Devondale, and Windy Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 8586 3849 8571 3816 8556 3806 8594
      3832 8603 3845 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 234DEG 27KT 3846 8610 3835 8598 3812 8591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CSG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
601 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Hail             Corydon                 38.21N 86.13W
05/16/2026  E1.00 Inch       Harrison           IN   Public

            Residential report of quarter size hail.

&&

CAL