Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
210 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today, showers and thunderstorms are expected. This afternoon into
  evening, there is a chance for a few strong thunderstorms that
  could produce strong wind gusts and hail.

* Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s this
  weekend into the beginning of next week. Some daily max
  temperature records could be challenged.

* Tuesday and Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
  cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Today, a surface high sitting over the Southeast will continue to
funnel Gulf moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This
moisture is combining over the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley with
additional moisture arriving from the west being pushed by zonal
flow. Precipitable water values are currently increasing and are
expected to reach from 1.1" near Clinton County to around 1.6"
closer to the Ohio River and into southern Indiana, and as shortwave
activity moves east over the region, showers and thunderstorms will
develop and push east through the CWA.

High temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 70s to upper
80s. Higher temperatures are expected in southern Kentucky as that
area is expected to see less overall precipitation that is expected
to limit temperatures.

This morning, thunderstorms will be possible, but model sounding
look to keep most of the activity elevated with a stable layer at
the surface. The treat of stronger storms is expected to be limited
because of this.

This evening, as some of the areas of higher PWATs work farther
south into central Kentucky and instability increases due to the
diurnal warming (driven by strong WAA), surface based thunderstorms
are expected to develop. We could see pockets of better deep layer
shear around 35 knots with instability increasing to around 1,500
J/kg of MLCAPE and MUCAPE values reaching closer to 2,000 J/kg. This
will help some of the stronger cells to produce strong gusty winds
in the environment with steep low level lapse rates. With these
lapse rates continuing into the mid-levels hail is also a concern.

Any threat of stronger to severe thunderstorms depends on how much
we are able to heat and recover by this afternoon/evening. Early
cloud cover and rain showers are expected to limit temperatures
along and north of Interstate 64, so this could leave the better
instability farther south across central Kentucky for an late
afternoon/evening thunderstorm.

Tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s
as an upper trough begins to dig south over the West. With an upper
ridge forming over the Midwest and pushing east, showers are
expected to lift north away from the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday and Monday, continued WAA with sunny skies will allow
the heat to set in over the Lower Ohio Valley. The NBM continues to
be on the warmer side of most other guidance and with the expected
rainfall today into tonight, high temperatures were lowered slight
to the mid 80s to upper 80s for Sunday and slightly warmer on Monday
with temperatures in the upper 80s and crossing over into the low
90s. WAA at night will also limit cooling to the mid 60s to low to
mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights.

Tuesday, rain chances begin increasing again. Continued southern
surface flow will continue carrying moisture into the region ahead
of an approaching cold front which is expected to arrive Wednesday
morning, slightly earlier than yesterday's guidance. Deep layer
shear continues to be limited, but with temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s, enough instability is
expected to produce scattered thunderstorms until the passage of the
front on Wednesday.

Wednesday's high temperatures are expected to be somewhat limited to
the upper 70s in parts of southern Indiana due to the passing of the
cold front. Areas ahead of the front are still expected to reach
into the 80s with the mid 80s being reached in and around Clinton
County.

Behind the front on Thursday, highs are expected to be around normal
for this time of year, in the mid to upper 70s, before temperatures
begin to creep up into the low 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

A brief break from this morning/early afternoon's showers and
thunderstorms is currently ongoing for most places, with the next
round expected to begin around 21z. Ceilings and visibilities should
remain above VFR, but a heavier downpour could very briefly reduce
ceilings and visibilities. Coverage of showers and storms will
decrease after 0z, though a PROB30 was included across the terminals
given the scattered nature in recent guidance. Occasional increased
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening, quickly diminishing
after sunset. Sunday will have dry and VFR conditions, with
southerly gusts increasing during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1120 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ077-084-090>092-161545-
Crawford IN-Washington IN-Floyd IN-Clark IN-Harrison IN-
1120 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HARRISON...WEST
CENTRAL CLARK...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...

At 1120 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Salem, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Galena, New Pekin, Palmyra, Borden, Greenville, Hardinsburg,
Fredericksburg, Bradford, Martinsburg, and Shorts Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 8630 3849 8629 3852 8594 3835 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 270DEG 29KT 3844 8619

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SRW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1206 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ076-077-084-090-161630-
Crawford IN-Orange IN-Washington IN-Harrison IN-
1206 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN
CRAWFORD...SOUTHERN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Paoli, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paoli, English, French Lick, Marengo, Milltown, Hardinsburg, Livonia,
Ethel, Trotter Crossing, and Valeene.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 8623 3833 8624 3838 8668 3843 8668
      3853 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 272DEG 29KT 3845 8652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SRW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1229 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ077-078-092-161700-
Washington IN-Clark IN-Scott IN-
1229 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM
EDT...

At 1228 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Salem, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, Blue River, New Pekin, Borden, Hardinsburg, Livonia,
Fredericksburg, Henryville, Carwood, and Martinsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 8574 3842 8614 3843 8631 3858 8631
      3865 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 262DEG 40KT 3850 8612

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SRW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1251 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ077-091-092-KYZ031-161715-
Washington IN-Floyd IN-Clark IN-Oldham KY-
1251 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CLARK...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 115
PM EDT...

At 1251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of New Albany, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Charlestown, Sellersburg, New Pekin, Owen, Goshen, Borden, Speed,
Saint Joseph, Henryville, and Starlight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 8602 3851 8603 3859 8556 3839 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 264DEG 37KT 3846 8588

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SRW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

INZ083-084-089-162000-
Crawford IN-Perry IN-Dubois IN-
325 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DUBOIS...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
AND NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...

At 324 PM EDT/224 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Dale, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Huntingburg, Ferdinand, Holland, Birdseye, Dubois, Celestine,
Bretzville, Taswell, and Mentor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 8681 3843 8668 3840 8668 3840 8664
      3831 8653 3819 8679 3821 8679 3820 8707
      3828 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 233DEG 40KT 3822 8695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SRW