Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
750 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Monday evening and
  Monday night. A relatively higher risk for severe weather exists
  west of I-65, but isolated damaging winds will still be possible
  east to the I-75 corridor.

* Another round of strong to severe storms is expected Tuesday
  evening and into the overnight. Damaging winds and large hail are
  the main severe threats.

* Temperatures cool Wednesday afternoon and will run below average
  through next weekend for late April/early May. Mostly dry weather
  is expected after Wednesday, with a slight chance for light rain
  on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A small cluster of thunderstorms is lifting northeast across
southern IN this afternoon. One severe thunderstorm dropped quarter
to golf ball size hail through portions of Warwick and Dubois
counties. This activity formed in an area of robust mid-level warm
advection and on the eastern fringe of a 45-50 kt SSW low-level jet.
These storms have begun to diminish in intensity as they push east
of the richer low-level moisture and the stronger plume of
instability.

Current satellite imagery and SPC mesoanalysis data reveal a plume
of moderate to strong instability extending north into the Mid-MS
River Valley. While the core of this instability plume will stay to
our west over MO/IL/western KY, the 40-50 kt SW LLJ will propagate
eastward over the Lower OH Valley through the evening and early
overnight hours. The robust low level flow should bring mid to upper
60s sfc dewpoints as far west as the I-65 corridor. Despite early
day clouds and scattered convection, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should
be realized west of I-65 through 00Z this evening. This could be
important if the convective complex over southeastern IL can dive
southeast a bit faster into portions of SW Indiana and west-central
KY. Think we may see thunderstorms push into our NW CWA a bit faster
between 5-8 PM this evening. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, lightning,
and hail would all be possible with this activity, and isolated
severe gusts/hail are also possible.

After 00Z this evening, convective evolution is messy and lower
confidence. Multiple discrete cells and convective clusters should
tend to evolve eastward across portions of central KY ahead of a
primary convective line. This activity should tend to grow upscale
before being absorbed by a QLCS late tonight. But expect rain and
thunderstorm chances to ramp up from west to east across central KY
between 00-06Z this evening. Isolated to widely scattered instances
of 60-70+ mph damaging straight-line winds are the primary severe
threat. As instability wanes overnight, storms may tend to become
more elevated in nature (resulting in a much lower hail and tornado
risk). The robust low-level flow and curvature will maintain at
least a low-end tornado risk through the late evening hours.

Showers and storms will exit the region from NW to SE early Tue
morning. Tuesday looks relatively dry overall; spotty light showers
will be possible as the sfc cold front stalls over the region.
However, much of the day looks mostly dry with any additional
widespread rain holding off until after 8 PM EDT Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

===Another Round of Storms Tuesday Evening into Tuesday Night===

Another fast-moving mid/upper level shortwave trough is forecast to
swing east across the stalled sfc boundary Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Storms are expected to initiate upstream over the Ozarks
during the afternoon hours. It appears at least a portion of this
activity could grow upscale into an MCS, which then races east along
the remnant sfc boundary/instability gradient draped through central
KY. The most likely arrival time in our western/southwestern
forecast area is around 7-8 PM CDT. Large hail and damaging winds
would both be on the table at this time, especially across south-
central KY. The southern portion of the CWA (south of the stalled
boundary) will see stronger destabilization Tue afternoon and
evening ahead of any approaching MCS.

Shower and thunderstorm chances peak overnight, with the chance for
severe weather waning after 06Z Wednesday due to the loss of
instability. A deepening sfc wave is forecast to lift northeast
across the eastern half of KY early Wednesday morning as the primary
mid-level wave swings over the Midwest. Expect widespread showers to
linger through Wednesday morning before tapering off from NW to SE
Wednesday afternoon.

===Drier and Cooler Weather to End the Week===

Cooler, drier air filters into the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night behind the departing weather system. Clearing skies will allow
temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s Thursday morning.
Modifying high pressure builds into the region for Thursday, with
fair weather and highs in the 60s.

A small chance (20%) for rain returns by Friday as a weak cold front
dips in from the north. A separate southern stream low pressure
system is expected to spread rainfall across the Southeast Friday
into Saturday. At this time, it looks like central KY and southern
IN is mostly likely to stay dry through the weekend with weak high
pressure once again building in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Waves of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across HNB and SDF over the next few hours, gradually
spreading toward LEX/RGA/BWG later tonight. Within these storms,
gusty winds of 30-40 knots, IFR/LIFR VIS and MVFR CIGs will all be
possible. The final line of storms should clear from NW to SE
between 05-09Z, with light rain showers possible for a few hours
after. Behind that line of storms, MVFR stratus should set in
Tuesday morning before gradually mixing out during the daytime
hours. Another chance for showers and storms is possible by the end
of the current TAF period; however, we'll leave mention out for now
due to low confidence.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
414 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-282015-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
414 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 /314 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a risk of severe storms this evening and overnight.
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main hazards. Excessive
rainfall could result in localized flooding in southern Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday
evening through early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions
according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1208 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

INZ077>079-KYZ032-280500-
Washington IN-Jefferson IN-Scott IN-Trimble KY-
1208 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT JEFFERSON...NORTHERN SCOTT...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN TRIMBLE COUNTIES THROUGH 100
AM EDT...

At 1208 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Seymour, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Scottsburg, Austin, Hanover, Smyrna, Milton, Kent, Dupont,
Brooksburg, and Wakefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8520 3874 8529 3874 8533 3869 8530
      3872 8602 3877 8599 3875 8598 3875 8590
      3873 8589 3873 8587 3881 8579 3883 8573
      3882 8570 3882 8561 3885 8561 3885 8557
      3888 8557 3888 8554 3891 8553 3891 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 270DEG 58KT 3882 8585

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1216 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ025-030>032-280500-
Orange IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois IN-Scott IN-Crawford IN-Washington IN-
Floyd IN-Clark IN-Perry IN-Harrison IN-Jefferson KY-Oldham KY-
Meade KY-Trimble KY-
1216 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...CLARK...
PERRY...FLOYD...SCOTT...EASTERN WASHINGTON...HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
DUBOIS...CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND TRIMBLE COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 AM EDT/MIDNIGHT CDT/...

At 1216 AM EDT/1116 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near English to near
Boonville. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Jeffersonville, New Albany, Madison, Scottsburg,
Prospect, Corydon, English, Bedford, and Carefree Town.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM
CDT/ for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 8520 3869 8520 3874 8527 3874 8533
      3870 8530 3862 8523 3849 8535 3803 8628
      3801 8680 3802 8678 3810 8677 3812 8681
      3821 8679 3821 8686 3841 8641 3842 8610
      3871 8600 3875 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 266DEG 62KT 3839 8644 3804 8720

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1246 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

INZ090>092-KYZ029>035-038-280530-
Floyd IN-Clark IN-Harrison IN-Jefferson KY-Oldham KY-Shelby KY-
Bullitt KY-Henry KY-Franklin KY-Spencer KY-Trimble KY-
1246 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD...OLDHAM...NORTHWESTERN
SPENCER...SHELBY...SOUTHERN TRIMBLE...HENRY...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN
BULLITT AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

At 1246 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bedford to 6 miles west of New Albany to 9
miles south of Carefree Town. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Jeffersonville, New Albany, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews,
Shively, Shelbyville, Shepherdsville, Lyndon, and La Grange.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 8521 3860 8508 3856 8506 3856 8501
      3851 8503 3851 8498 3849 8499 3847 8495
      3843 8495 3846 8492 3846 8491 3844 8493
      3842 8488 3838 8490 3835 8485 3805 8544
      3796 8570 3804 8622 3829 8584 3863 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 304DEG 38KT 3863 8530 3831 8595 3811 8633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1258 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

INZ089-090-KYZ023>029-280545-
Perry IN-Harrison IN-Grayson KY-Bullitt KY-Hancock KY-Meade KY-
Ohio KY-Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
1258 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
PERRY...MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK...NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON...
SOUTHWESTERN BULLITT...BRECKINRIDGE...NORTHWESTERN HARDIN AND
NORTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EDT/1245 AM CDT/...

At 1258 AM EDT/1158 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of
Brandenburg to near Whitesville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brandenburg, Hardinsburg, Radcliff, Webster, Vine Grove, Irvington,
Cloverport, Muldraugh, West Point, and Fordsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM
CDT/ for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8682 3781 8683 3812 8625 3802 8593
      3801 8595 3800 8593 3802 8591 3795 8568
      3752 8647 3771 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 288DEG 35KT 3809 8625 3771 8687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
119 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KYZ029-034>036-038>041-045>047-280600-
Shelby KY-Bullitt KY-Mercer KY-Scott KY-Woodford KY-Fayette KY-
Franklin KY-Spencer KY-Washington KY-Nelson KY-Anderson KY-
119 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SPENCER...SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...
NORTHEASTERN NELSON...NORTHWESTERN MERCER...WOODFORD...SOUTH CENTRAL
SCOTT...ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL BULLITT...
WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM
EDT...

At 119 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shelbyville to near Taylorsville to near
Shepherdsville. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Frankfort, Shelbyville, Shepherdsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Taylorsville, Cardinal Hill, Meadowthorpe, and Dunbar
High School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 8441 3799 8461 3800 8466 3795 8468
      3792 8473 3778 8519 3797 8575 3807 8545
      3824 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 282DEG 44KT 3819 8513 3807 8538 3797 8568

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJS