River Flood Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another round of strong to severe storms is expected this evening
  and into the overnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
  severe threats.

* Temperatures cool Wednesday afternoon and will run below average
  through next weekend for late April/early May.

* Mostly dry weather is expected after Wednesday, with a slight
  chance for light rain on Friday evening and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A line of storms is pushing through the region at this hour. The
cold front behind the line will begin to stall this morning and park
near the Ohio River for the remainder of the day. As the line of
storms continues southeast, it will move away from the better
forcing along the front and begin to weaken. Though vorticity
shedding and a shortwave will continue along the upper ridging into
the Appalachians, which will help to maintain storms. Once storms
reach the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways, we are expecting
storms to become more elevated in nature. Though, gusty to damaging
winds will still be possible until the line exits the region. The
line is expected to exit the region around 6AM EDT.

Through the afternoon, we will see some clearing (after a morning of
lower stratus) sky cover and slightly increased heights over the
region. This will help temperatures to increase into the upper 70s
and low 80s over Kentucky. Southwesterly surface flow will help to
keep dew points into the mid-upper 60s. We will remain mostly dry
through the day today, as forcing is lacking.

By the late afternoon/evening, SBCAPE ahead of the stationary front
will increase to 1600-2000 J/kg, PWATs to 1.6-1.8 inches, and deep
layer shear around 50kts. A fast-moving shortwave will move
northeast from the Ozarks and bring an MCS through the region. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards with this event.
Greatest threat area will be over southern Kentucky. Storms will
approach the region around 7-8pm EDT (6-7pm CDT). The convective
environment will weaken beyond 6Z and storms are expected to weaken.

Additionally, a surface low pressure system will undergo
cyclogenesis as it passes over the region, this will help to keep
showers and storms through Wednesday morning. Showers will push off
to the northeast late Wednesday morning. The cold front that has
been stalled along the Ohio River will push through the region and
bring cooler and drier air with it.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

===== Wednesday - Saturday =====

Despite some lingering rain showers Wednesday morning, everyone
dries out by midday with clouds slowly thinning and moving out to
the east in the evening. Tuesday night's shortwave will quickly
eject towards the northeast and ushering in a trailing cold front
during the day. Dry and cooler NW flow will dominate in the
afternoon with light winds all day for everyone leading to a rather
comfy day. Afternoon highs range in the mid 60s to low 70s. Clouds
could stick around long enough to keep lows a little warmer in
southern areas, though lows across the CWA Wednesday night will be
in the low to upper 40s.

A broad trough over southern Canada will keep ushering in cooler air
reinforcing the cooling trend for this week at least through
Saturday. So by Thursday afternoon, clouds will clear later in the
morning before increasing later in the afternoon. Highs are cooler
in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the low to upper 40s again.

For Friday, temperatures will be nearly the same in the 60s with
increasing clouds. A lower level disturbance might bring in a few
showers though any rainfall from this seems to be very light and
unlikely (20%). However, this will usher in some more cold air from
a weak cold front passing through and drop temperatures a few more
degrees Saturday. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s, with a few
upper 30s across our northern counties.

By Saturday morning, clouds stick around as a low pressure glides
across the southeast US. We expect conditions to remain dry albeit
for a few rain showers in our far southern border counties that
might get a glancing blow from this storm. Should it track a little
further north or Friday's weak cold front fail to clear our CWA,
light rain would be more likely but for now we're keeping PoPs low
near 30% near the Lake Cumberland area and dry weather for everyone
north of the Cumberland Parkway. The coldest lows of the week will
be on Saturday night with a few northeastern areas having a low
chance of frost early Sunday morning though confidence is low at
this point but will be monitored (<20% of frost in NE areas)

Beyond Saturday, the parent trough over southern Canada
will begin to retreat towards the northeast. This will allow more SW
flow to return with highs raising back up into the upper 60s and 70s
early next week. Some signals of a shortwave moving through the
plains could bring in more rain Monday afternoon, but rainfall
totals this far out look to be low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A strong line of thunderstorms is currently located along the
Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways and moving southeast. This line
is capable of strong winds and very heavy rain, bringing conditions
down to IFR levels. After the storms pass through, light rain will
linger for another 2 hours. CIGs will also begin to fall to low-end
MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. These CIGs will last through mid-
late morning. CIGs will begin to mix out and we will see VFR
conditions by the early afternoon. In the evening, another wave of
showers and storms will move through the region and last through the
overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...SRW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
144 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KYZ036-037-041>043-049-280630-
Bourbon KY-Scott KY-Fayette KY-Nicholas KY-Clark KY-Harrison KY-
144 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...NORTHERN
CLARK...BOURBON...SOUTHERN NICHOLAS...NORTHERN FAYETTE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

At 144 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Georgetown, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester, Paris, Millersburg,
North Middletown, Spindletop Estates, Blacks Crossroads, Renick, and
Stony Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 8398 3818 8399 3813 8406 3812 8408
      3799 8400 3813 8464 3814 8464 3832 8449
      3828 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 279DEG 48KT 3823 8444

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
159 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KYZ040-041-048-049-057-280645-
Woodford KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-Clark KY-Madison KY-
159 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WOODFORD...CLARK...
NORTHEASTERN JESSAMINE...NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 AM EDT...

At 159 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Versailles, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Winchester, Versailles, Meadowthorpe, Dunbar High School,
Thoroughbred Acres, Cardinal Hill, Cadentown, Northland, and
Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 8399 3786 8401 3787 8403 3784 8400
      3785 8406 3781 8408 3782 8408 3781 8409
      3785 8408 3782 8412 3801 8476 3814 8465
      3813 8464 3812 8465 3814 8459 3800 8401
      3793 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 284DEG 55KT 3807 8465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KYZ027-061>063-070-071-280700-
Hart KY-Grayson KY-Warren KY-Logan KY-Edmonson KY-Butler KY-
111 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN HART...
BUTLER...SOUTH CENTRAL GRAYSON...NORTHERN WARREN AND EDMONSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM CDT...

At 111 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Leitchfield to 7 miles southwest of Weir.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Morgantown, Munfordville, Brownsville, Anderson, Casey, Lee, Horse
Cave, Lewisburg, Rochester, and Woodbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3707 8694 3709 8690 3710 8690
      3711 8689 3713 8690 3713 8692 3716 8693
      3718 8692 3718 8689 3721 8691 3727 8685
      3738 8649 3723 8570 3716 8599 3717 8605
      3714 8606 3694 8680 3697 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 279DEG 47KT 3741 8628 3709 8734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
157 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KYZ062>064-070>074-076-077-280745-
Hart KY-Metcalfe KY-Warren KY-Logan KY-Simpson KY-Allen KY-
Edmonson KY-Barren KY-Adair KY-Green KY-
157 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN GREEN...
CENTRAL SIMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN HART...NORTHWESTERN ALLEN...WARREN...
BARREN...NORTHERN METCALFE...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN
EDMONSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 156 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Munfordville to 7 miles north
of Russellville. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Russellville, Edmonton, Plum Springs, Three
Springs, Memphis Junction, Mount Victor, Crestmoor, and Franklin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 8706 3676 8705 3693 8705 3701 8671
      3700 8667 3702 8666 3723 8584 3705 8525
      3664 8694 3664 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 298DEG 31KT 3720 8586 3695 8689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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