Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
309 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing
  threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning and gusty winds.

* Fog may form by morning (20-40% chance) in areas that receive rain
  today.

* Storms return tomorrow afternoon, with better coverage over
  central KY continuing the same threats from todays storms. Highs
  remain in the mid 80s.

* Seasonable temperatures (mid-upper 80s) and daily chances (20-40%)
  for afternoon-evening thunderstorms are forecast throughout the
  upcoming work week. The risk for severe weather appears low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For the rest of this afternoon and evening, an axis of thunderstorms
that formed from areas of clear skies this morning will continue
drifting slowly towards the southeast. These storms will dissipate
with nocturnal cooling later tonight. Ahead of this axis of storms,
more scattered convection may fire off though not everyone will see
rain today. With weak upper level support, these storms pose more of
an isolated flash flooding risk along with general frequent
lightning and gusty winds. Repeated rounds of storms has already
produced 1+" totals within an hour or so, meaning the isolated flash
flood risk will continue through the evening. PWATs remain high near
1.9" and with weak flow aloft, these storms will be slow movers.
Isolated spots could see 2-4" or more, though this depends on if
storms can keep training over the same areas. Generally these storms
consume the instability around them and cause future storms to track
over different areas, or weaken. Most places should see under an
inch with storms by this evening. Eventually, storms will end and
light to calm winds will prevail overnight. Cloud cover will limit
how fast we can cool but patchy fog is possible (20-40%), especially
within our river valleys and general low lying areas by early
morning.

By morning, temperatures will range in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Any morning fog will mix away slowly as the sun tries to heat the
area through mixed cloud cover. Temperatures still rebound into the
mid 80s just in time for additional storms to refire in the
afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will linger over northern KY,
bringing another focused axis of storms that will slowly move
southeast once again. Scattered storms will linger with high
humidity although behind the weak frontal boundary over southern
Indiana, storms will be more sparse in coverage. With continued weak
flow and modest CAPE, the main threat for tomorrow's storms are
flash flooding, followed by lightning and gusty winds. Storms once
again wane with nocturnal cooling with winds becoming calm
overnight. Patchy fog will again be possible in areas that will
receive rain and in the low river valleys overnight Tuesday.

By Wednesday morning, the low at mid levels keeping our weather so
unsettled will be cut off from the overall flow, slowly moving off
to the east overtime. Weak southwesterly flow at lower levels will
reinforce humid conditions and afternoon storms return. Only
difference is there isn't much lift to initiate storms besides
afternoon heating or preexisting storms outside the CWA, so storm
coverage should be much less Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in
the mid 80s once again and cooling off into the upper 60s and low
70s as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

By Thursday morning the OH Valley will remain on the northern
periphery of the subtropical high centered over FL, with continued
moist air being advected into the region from the SW. Summer heat
will remain with highs expected in the upper 80s to right around 90
for some urban locations, with dew points uncomfortably in the mid
70s. Model soundings show abundant instability but little shear, so
expect diurnally driven pulse storms to generate in the afternoon
into evening hours.

A cold front will begin dropping south from the Great Lakes on
Friday, bringing increased rain and storm chances to the OH Valley
region through the weekend. With warm air in place, there will be no
shortage of instability with CAPE values 2500 - 3000 J/kg. Shear
continues to be lacking overall, though GFS does show pockets of
40kt bulk shear values propagating through the zonal pattern, mostly
associated with a LLJ forming Friday night, as the cold front drops
southward toward the OH River. With abundant moisture in place,
evident by PWATs ranging from 1.8 to 2.1 inches with higher amounts
pooling just ahead of the frontal boundary, expect to see heavy rain
at times. By Sunday, the weak surface low will begin to move off to
our east but still expect scattered rain and storms chances.
Unfortunately, a well modified airmass behind the front will do
little to abate the summer warmth. Highs Friday through Monday will
continue to top out in the upper 80s with dew points in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon between scattered
storms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be present within these
storms at times, bringing lightning and heavy downpours. Winds
outside of storms will remain light and generally from the WNW
becoming very light to calm overnight. Patchy fog could develop in
the morning as well, reducing visibilities to MVFR/IFR conditions,
more so in areas that receive rain today. Otherwise, ceilings slowly
raise late tomorrow morning at VFR conditions again with scattered
storms returning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BKF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1247 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

KYZ037-043-061715-
Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
1247 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NICHOLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Cynthiana, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cynthiana, Berry, Robinson, Colemansville, Oddville, Boyd,
Claysville, Antioch, Barefoot, and Garnett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 8432 3854 8444 3857 8435 3858 8420
      3857 8420 3856 8422 3855 8421 3855 8416
      3852 8418 3850 8418 3850 8416 3849 8417
      3849 8415 3848 8415 3848 8413 3846 8410
      3844 8402 3844 8400 3842 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 266DEG 21KT 3849 8431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BKF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Exie              37.18N 85.56W
07/04/2026                   Green              KY   Emergency Mngr

            Crop damage and structural damage to a barn
            occurred off Roy Bagby Road, and at points
            along Highway 218 to the east.

&&

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
142 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

KYZ034-038-061815-
Shelby KY-Spencer KY-
142 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SPENCER AND WEST
CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 141 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Taylorsville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Simpsonville, Veech, Montclair, Joyes, Middletown
Heights, Finchville, and Olive Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 8540 3818 8541 3826 8526 3814 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 250DEG 7KT 3816 8539

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
210 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

KYZ037-042-043-061845-
Bourbon KY-Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
210 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BOURBON...SOUTHWESTERN
NICHOLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Paris, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Millersburg, Shawhan, Jackstown, Blacks Crossroads, Ruddels
Mills, Headquarters, Colville, Broadwell, and Currentsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 8434 3834 8439 3840 8409 3819 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 256DEG 14KT 3827 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Flash Flood      Jeffersontown           38.21N 85.58W
07/06/2026                   Jefferson          KY   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast media relayed a video of flooded
            roads at the intersection of Patti Lane and
            Taylorsville Road.

&&

BJS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
322 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Flash Flood      2 W Jeffersontown       38.20N 85.60W
07/06/2026                   Jefferson          KY   Broadcast Media

            Cars stuck in the water on N. Hurstborne
            just north of Six Mile Lane. Jefferstown
            Fire responding to water rescues at this
            location.

&&

BJS