Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
131 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Torrential rainfall possible with any stronger storms through
  this weekend. Rainfall rates of 2-5" per hour are possible and
  could easily overwhelm drainage systems.

- High rain chances through the next several days. Areal 7 day
  rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Most of the country is under varying portions of upper level trough.
A shortwave embedded within the broad scale trough is currently
tracking northeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
low level dynamics are certainly better farther north into central
MS. However, 500mb winds aloft are forecast to increase this
afternoon from that shortwave which aide into convective
organization. Moisture rich airmass remains in place, each WFOLIX
sounding measuring near record PW for this time if year. One surprise
on this morning's flight was just how much CAPE we have throughout
the column from much steeper mid level lapse rates than previously
seen. Localized hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour will
be possible within the strongest cores this afternoon and evening.
The overall movement of storms might be faster than yesterday based
on mean flow model sounding data, but updshear/downshear vectors are
quite close in direction and bring a higher probability of
thunderstorm training. That combined with intense rainfall rates
definitely would promote localized flash flooding, particularly in
urban and poor drainage areas.

Going into the overnight period, meso and global models suggest a
lull in convection, lasting well into Saturday morning. May be
Saturday afternoon before convection develops. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall and localized
flooding impacts expected with nearly 100% coverage as another
shortwave slides through the region.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

An unsettled and moisture airmass will persist through much of the
extended forecast period as broad ridging remains suppressed to the
south and east while upper level troughing generally remains in
place each day. As seen recently, shortwave impulses will continue
to enhance shower and thunderstorm development.  Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the weekend
and into early next week. Precipitable water values generally
between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will continue to support efficient warm
rain processes and locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms
that develop. Rainfall coverage may fluctuate somewhat day to day
depending on subtle mesoscale boundaries, convective overturning
from prior day activity, and shortwaves passing through the base of
the broad scale trough. Its the Sunday impulse that is forecast to
bring Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Sunday as it moves across the
CWA. High temperatures will remain near climatological normals but
lows above normal due to increased cloud cover and precipitation
coverage.

Although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, hence
no Flash Flood Watch issued with this forecast period, isolated
nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding issues will remain
possible each day, especially in urban areas and locations that
receive repeated rounds of convection.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions will dominate the period at terminals.
Outside of BR at KMCB and KHUM tonight, impacts to visibility mainly
comes from periods of heavy rainfall. Attempted to time that based
on current radar trends as well as meso models. Should be a break in
convection overnight at most terminals, with new convective
development late morning to early afternoon Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the western
Atlantic throughout the forecast period. This will maintain light to
moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds should generally right
around 10 knots. Periods of near 15 knots possible, especially in
open Gulf waters. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated
to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of
the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally
hazardous winds and waves can be expected.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

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