Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
131 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Torrential rainfall possible with any stronger storms through
  this weekend. Rainfall rates of 2-5" per hour are possible and
  could easily overwhelm drainage systems.

- High rain chances through the next several days. Areal 7 day
  rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Most of the country is under varying portions of upper level trough.
A shortwave embedded within the broad scale trough is currently
tracking northeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
low level dynamics are certainly better farther north into central
MS. However, 500mb winds aloft are forecast to increase this
afternoon from that shortwave which aide into convective
organization. Moisture rich airmass remains in place, each WFOLIX
sounding measuring near record PW for this time if year. One surprise
on this morning's flight was just how much CAPE we have throughout
the column from much steeper mid level lapse rates than previously
seen. Localized hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour will
be possible within the strongest cores this afternoon and evening.
The overall movement of storms might be faster than yesterday based
on mean flow model sounding data, but updshear/downshear vectors are
quite close in direction and bring a higher probability of
thunderstorm training. That combined with intense rainfall rates
definitely would promote localized flash flooding, particularly in
urban and poor drainage areas.

Going into the overnight period, meso and global models suggest a
lull in convection, lasting well into Saturday morning. May be
Saturday afternoon before convection develops. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall and localized
flooding impacts expected with nearly 100% coverage as another
shortwave slides through the region.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

An unsettled and moisture airmass will persist through much of the
extended forecast period as broad ridging remains suppressed to the
south and east while upper level troughing generally remains in
place each day. As seen recently, shortwave impulses will continue
to enhance shower and thunderstorm development.  Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the weekend
and into early next week. Precipitable water values generally
between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will continue to support efficient warm
rain processes and locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms
that develop. Rainfall coverage may fluctuate somewhat day to day
depending on subtle mesoscale boundaries, convective overturning
from prior day activity, and shortwaves passing through the base of
the broad scale trough. Its the Sunday impulse that is forecast to
bring Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Sunday as it moves across the
CWA. High temperatures will remain near climatological normals but
lows above normal due to increased cloud cover and precipitation
coverage.

Although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, hence
no Flash Flood Watch issued with this forecast period, isolated
nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding issues will remain
possible each day, especially in urban areas and locations that
receive repeated rounds of convection.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions will dominate the period at terminals.
Outside of BR at KMCB and KHUM tonight, impacts to visibility mainly
comes from periods of heavy rainfall. Attempted to time that based
on current radar trends as well as meso models. Should be a break in
convection overnight at most terminals, with new convective
development late morning to early afternoon Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the western
Atlantic throughout the forecast period. This will maintain light to
moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds should generally right
around 10 knots. Periods of near 15 knots possible, especially in
open Gulf waters. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated
to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of
the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally
hazardous winds and waves can be expected.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
209 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

LAZ080>082-221945-
Central Tangipahoa LA-Lower Tangipahoa LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-
209 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TANGIPAHOA PARISH THROUGH 245 PM CDT
...

At 209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robert, or 8 miles southeast of Hammond, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ponchatoula and Robert.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 41 and 53.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 17 and 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3060 9024 3037 9024 3031 9041 3049 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 240DEG 14KT 3044 9035

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
226 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

LAZ039-057-058-071-076-077-079>087-092-094-098>100-MSZ077-083-222030-
Central Jefferson LA-Central Tangipahoa LA-Lower Tangipahoa LA-
Central St. Charles LA-Western Ascension LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-St. James LA-Upper Lafourche LA-
Lower St. Charles LA-Eastern Ascension LA-Washington LA-
Southeast St. Tammany LA-Western Orleans LA-Northern Livingston LA-
Northern St. Tammany LA-Southern Livingston LA-
Northern Tangipahoa LA-Upper St. Charles LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
Upper Jefferson LA-Pearl River MS-Northern Hancock MS-
226 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ORLEANS,
ST. TAMMANY, NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON, NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE, ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST, CENTRAL ASCENSION, ST. JAMES, ST. CHARLES, EASTERN
LIVINGSTON, SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON PARISHES,
NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT
...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Lumberton to 7 miles
south of Springfield to near Schriever. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Kenner, Slidell, Hammond, Thibodaux, Bogalusa,
Mandeville, Picayune, Gonzales, Covington, Poplarville, Reserve,
Metairie, Hahnville, Laplace, Avondale, Jefferson, Harahan, Westwego,
and Ponchatoula.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 180 and 234.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 26 and 82.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 39.
 Interstate 59 in Louisiana between mile markers 4 and 11.
 Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 42.
 Interstate 310 between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Interstate 610 between mile markers 1 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8934 3023 8989 3036 9019 3019 9039
      3009 9037 3005 9013 3009 8993 2977 9034
      2972 9078 2978 9083 2972 9088 2971 9100
      2988 9089 2993 9089 2998 9096 3021 9092
      3055 9066 3100 8968 3101 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 250DEG 24KT 3098 8954 3033 9051 2976 9090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MSZ085-088-222000-
Northern Jackson MS-Southern Jackson MS-
227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM CDT
...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Hurley to Big Point.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Escatawpa, Hurley, and Big Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 8856 3072 8851 3074 8849 3074 8842
      3072 8841 3054 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 237DEG 18KT 3069 8846 3057 8848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
256 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

LAZ079-081-222030-
Central Tangipahoa LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-
256 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ST.
TAMMANY AND EAST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISHES THROUGH 330 PM CDT
...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robert, or 10 miles northwest of Covington, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Folsom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 9034 3062 9033 3066 9008 3051 9009
      3050 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 264DEG 9KT 3055 9027

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TJS

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