Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1254 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered to
  numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the
  next several days. Chances of severe weather will be marginal,
  but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with
  gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters,
  especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the
  diurnal cycle.

- Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period
  with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest
  timeframe looks to be the latter half of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Storm coverage will be more widespread for the next several days.
We always give the when, where and how much, but this is the place
we can give the why. We will discuss features at the H3 level
since this is where one can see the things best that are causing
our weather to occur this week. This is ofcourse reflected
downward, but we will keep it as simple as possible. A very minor
upper short wave trough is rotating through currently causing
moisture to stack vertically wich in turn causes the PW values to
increase. And the higher the PW values, the heavier and more
widespread the rainfall can be. Normally, this feature moving
through would only give one maybe two days of widespread storm
activity, but the larger synoptic upper trough will then come in
behind this, since the short wave is actually moving through the
long wave trough, helping to continue the higher PW values. The
upper trough stands in the flow(like a standing wave), which makes
it stall or actually move very slowly eastward Monday through
Tuesday. The axis of this trough actually moves near our area Wed.
This means it takes 3 full days for this trough axis to move from
the Texarkana region to here. The stronger winds finally round
the base of this trough and cause it to become progressive,
speeding it up toward the east coast. Wed will be our transfer day
meaning our PW values will fall and there won't be any dynamic
load aloft to help storms flourish. This will cause only one thing
to kickstart kinematics for storm development...buoyancy. This is
what we have been working with over the last few days until
today. But this single driver will be back possibly by Wed but
surely as we move into the latter half of this week bringing out
daily ration of storms to around the 30% level once again. Each
day will bring with it the possibility of strong to severe storms.
The chances are low for any one location, but dry air near the H7
level will definitely lend to one or two of these storms having
strong to severe downdrafts causing wet microbursts. Waterspouts
are almost a given in these environments, and this has been the
case lately. But with added help aloft, some of these could form
over marine areas and move inland before dissipating. When
buoyancy is the only driver, waterspouts will normally weaken
once they "feel" land, which is to say the flow is
disturbed/disrupted due to the land mass causing friction to the
flow. With more upper dynamics involved, waterspouts can actually
hold togther long enough to reach the coast before decaying. This
greatly depends on how strong the dynamic load upstairs is, and
today through Wed, it is weak but it is there which means if they
reach the coast, they are almost always weak vorticies but can
still cause havoc a short distance inland. [TE/DSS]

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Later in the week an H5 ridge will reside over the western portions
of the Atlantic, across Florida and into the northeast Gulf. This
will place our region in a more active southwesterly flow aloft. The
period starts with a weakness over the Midsouth and lower MS River
Valley, which signals an uptick in diurnally driven convection
across the region. POPs for this time will be slightly above typical
CLIMO, especially across southwest MS. And again with the relatively
close proximity to the upper ridge temperatures will likely be a
couple of degrees higher than average. Within the southwesterly flow
aloft, a series of impulses may slide north and east just north of
the CWA. Timing will help keep POPs going during peak heating
through the start of next weekend. Overall, the summer pattern
remains roughly unchanged through the entire long term period.
(Frye/Schlotz)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups will keep the
prevailing groups since there will be more coverage today. Most if
not all terminals will be impacted at some time today by TSRA
producing at most MVFR conditions temporarily. SHRA and TSRA
activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating.
Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

High pressure in the area bringing WSW to SW winds generally in
the 5-10 knot range; these winds will only generate seas in the
1-2 foot range. Summertime diurnal cycling will bring offshore
thunderstorms that will almost assuredly carry waterspout activity
as well as increased winds and associated localized heavier seas.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ064-070-090-091-051830-
Central Plaquemines LA-Lower Plaquemines LA-Upper St. Bernard LA-
Lower St. Bernard LA-
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ST. BERNARD
AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISHES THROUGH 130 PM CDT
...

At 1229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing waterspouts over marine areas near Shell Beach,
or 18 miles southeast of Chalmette, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shell Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 8983 2980 8989 2991 8973 2989 8965
      2990 8964 2986 8938 2976 8933 2975 8934
      2976 8938 2970 8939 2960 8948 2963 8954
      2963 8960 2960 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 312DEG 10KT 2981 8970

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MEFFER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
152 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ037-039-071-079-081>083-051930-
Washington LA-Central Tangipahoa LA-Northern Livingston LA-
Lower Tangipahoa LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-St. Helena LA-
Northern Tangipahoa LA-
152 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ST.
HELENA, NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY, NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON, CENTRAL
TANGIPAHOA AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISHES THROUGH 230 PM CDT
...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of
Independence to near Albany. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hammond, Amite, Ponchatoula, Amite City, Independence, Roseland,
Albany, Folsom, Enon, Wilmer, Natalbany, Robert, and Tickfaw.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 33 and 53.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 24 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9002 3049 9021 3040 9042 3052 9070
      3069 9059 3086 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 278DEG 11KT 3068 9040 3056 9056

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
202 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ037-083-051930-
Northern Livingston LA-St. Helena LA-
202 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ST.
HELENA AND NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISHES THROUGH 230 PM CDT
...

At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walker, or 9 miles northeast of Denham Springs, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Walker, Livingston, and Montpelier.

This includes Interstate 12 between mile markers 15 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 9093 3065 9089 3069 9059 3052 9070
      3049 9063 3042 9073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 280DEG 12KT 3056 9083

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
219 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ057-058-083>086-051945-
Northern Livingston LA-Southern Livingston LA-Western Ascension LA-
St. John The Baptist LA-St. James LA-Eastern Ascension LA-
219 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST, NORTHEASTERN ASCENSION, NORTHEASTERN ST. JAMES AND
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISHES THROUGH 245 PM CDT
...

At 218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
French Settlement, or 8 miles northeast of Gonzales, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Reserve, Gramercy, Lutcher, Sorrento, French Settlement, Port
Vincent, Garyville, Whitehall, and Killian.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 187 and
202.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 9083 3036 9050 3030 9051 3028 9054
      3021 9055 3020 9053 3009 9055 3006 9069
      3021 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 291DEG 11KT 3027 9079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
226 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ039-058-079>082-084-MSZ077-083-052000-
Washington LA-Central Tangipahoa LA-Lower Tangipahoa LA-
Northern St. Tammany LA-Southern Livingston LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
Northern Hancock MS-Pearl River MS-
226 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST, ST. TAMMANY, EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON, SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA, SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT
...

At 226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bush to Ponchatoula. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Hammond, Mandeville, Picayune, Covington, Ponchatoula, Pearl
River, Abita Springs, Madisonville, Folsom, Springfield, Sun, Robert,
Bush, Natalbany, Lacombe, Killian, W Lk Pontchartrain Buoy, and
Slidell Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 35 and 76.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 14 and 32.
 Interstate 59 in Louisiana between mile markers 6 and 11.
 Interstate 59 in Mississippi near mile marker 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near marine areas, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from
the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8978 3042 8965 3034 8984 3030 9006
      3036 9019 3028 9029 3027 9044 3028 9044
      3031 9048 3030 9053 3049 9055 3059 9041
      3071 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 330DEG 20KT 3058 8994 3045 9044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
233 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ081-083-084-051945-
Central Tangipahoa LA-Northern Livingston LA-Southern Livingston LA-
233 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LIVINGSTON AND WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISHES THROUGH 245 PM CDT
...

At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, or 12 miles southwest of Hammond, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Albany, Springfield, Natalbany, and Killian.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 23 and 34.
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 33 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near marine areas, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from
the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 9047 3049 9055 3036 9053 3038 9083
      3057 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 300DEG 18KT 3043 9064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG