Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1254 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered to
  numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the
  next several days. Chances of severe weather will be marginal,
  but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with
  gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters,
  especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the
  diurnal cycle.

- Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period
  with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest
  timeframe looks to be the latter half of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Storm coverage will be more widespread for the next several days.
We always give the when, where and how much, but this is the place
we can give the why. We will discuss features at the H3 level
since this is where one can see the things best that are causing
our weather to occur this week. This is ofcourse reflected
downward, but we will keep it as simple as possible. A very minor
upper short wave trough is rotating through currently causing
moisture to stack vertically wich in turn causes the PW values to
increase. And the higher the PW values, the heavier and more
widespread the rainfall can be. Normally, this feature moving
through would only give one maybe two days of widespread storm
activity, but the larger synoptic upper trough will then come in
behind this, since the short wave is actually moving through the
long wave trough, helping to continue the higher PW values. The
upper trough stands in the flow(like a standing wave), which makes
it stall or actually move very slowly eastward Monday through
Tuesday. The axis of this trough actually moves near our area Wed.
This means it takes 3 full days for this trough axis to move from
the Texarkana region to here. The stronger winds finally round
the base of this trough and cause it to become progressive,
speeding it up toward the east coast. Wed will be our transfer day
meaning our PW values will fall and there won't be any dynamic
load aloft to help storms flourish. This will cause only one thing
to kickstart kinematics for storm development...buoyancy. This is
what we have been working with over the last few days until
today. But this single driver will be back possibly by Wed but
surely as we move into the latter half of this week bringing out
daily ration of storms to around the 30% level once again. Each
day will bring with it the possibility of strong to severe storms.
The chances are low for any one location, but dry air near the H7
level will definitely lend to one or two of these storms having
strong to severe downdrafts causing wet microbursts. Waterspouts
are almost a given in these environments, and this has been the
case lately. But with added help aloft, some of these could form
over marine areas and move inland before dissipating. When
buoyancy is the only driver, waterspouts will normally weaken
once they "feel" land, which is to say the flow is
disturbed/disrupted due to the land mass causing friction to the
flow. With more upper dynamics involved, waterspouts can actually
hold togther long enough to reach the coast before decaying. This
greatly depends on how strong the dynamic load upstairs is, and
today through Wed, it is weak but it is there which means if they
reach the coast, they are almost always weak vorticies but can
still cause havoc a short distance inland. [TE/DSS]

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Later in the week an H5 ridge will reside over the western portions
of the Atlantic, across Florida and into the northeast Gulf. This
will place our region in a more active southwesterly flow aloft. The
period starts with a weakness over the Midsouth and lower MS River
Valley, which signals an uptick in diurnally driven convection
across the region. POPs for this time will be slightly above typical
CLIMO, especially across southwest MS. And again with the relatively
close proximity to the upper ridge temperatures will likely be a
couple of degrees higher than average. Within the southwesterly flow
aloft, a series of impulses may slide north and east just north of
the CWA. Timing will help keep POPs going during peak heating
through the start of next weekend. Overall, the summer pattern
remains roughly unchanged through the entire long term period.
(Frye/Schlotz)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups will keep the
prevailing groups since there will be more coverage today. Most if
not all terminals will be impacted at some time today by TSRA
producing at most MVFR conditions temporarily. SHRA and TSRA
activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating.
Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

High pressure in the area bringing WSW to SW winds generally in
the 5-10 knot range; these winds will only generate seas in the
1-2 foot range. Summertime diurnal cycling will bring offshore
thunderstorms that will almost assuredly carry waterspout activity
as well as increased winds and associated localized heavier seas.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
324 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ034-047-048-052100-
Pointe Coupee LA-West Baton Rouge LA-East Baton Rouge LA-
324 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST BATON ROUGE,
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE AND SOUTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES
THROUGH 400 PM CDT
...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Port Allen, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Baker, Port Allen, Brusly, Livonia, Maringouin,
Westminster, Merrydale, Erwinville, Brownfields, Gardere, Inniswold,
and Baton Rouge Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 144 and 162.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Interstate 110 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 9153 3065 9132 3051 9103 3041 9106
      3034 9117 3046 9144 3050 9148 3049 9152
      3051 9156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 320DEG 14KT 3046 9119

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ076-078-079-MSZ077-083-084-086-087-052130-
Southeast St. Tammany LA-Eastern Orleans LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-
Southern Harrison MS-Northern Hancock MS-Southern Hancock MS-
Northern Harrison MS-Pearl River MS-
347 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH, WESTERN HARRISON, HANCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN PEARL
RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT
...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles east of Mcneil to near Eden Isle.
Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Picayune, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Pass Christian, Eden
Isle, Diamondhead, Pearl River, Kiln, Pearlington, Shoreline Park,
Stennis Space Center, Saucier, and Lyman.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 259 and 273.
 Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 27.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 83 and 84.
 Interstate 59 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 5, and
between mile markers 13 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near marine areas, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from
the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8934 3065 8934 3065 8924 3068 8924
      3067 8910 3029 8925 3029 8931 3024 8940
      3017 8943 3016 8978 3017 8978 3021 8985
      3074 8953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 265DEG 10KT 3065 8942 3017 8980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

LAZ064-070-076>078-087-089>093-099-100-052200-
Central Plaquemines LA-Central Jefferson LA-Eastern Orleans LA-
Central St. Charles LA-Upper Plaquemines LA-Lower St. Bernard LA-
Lower St. Charles LA-Lower Plaquemines LA-Southeast St. Tammany LA-
Western Orleans LA-Upper St. Bernard LA-Coastal Jefferson LA-
Upper Jefferson LA-
355 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ST. BERNARD, EAST
CENTRAL ST. CHARLES, ORLEANS, JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES
PARISHES THROUGH 500 PM CDT
...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing waterspouts over marine areas over Violet, or
near Chalmette, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Avondale, Marrero, Harvey, Timberlane, Belle
Chasse, Metairie, Port Sulphur, Jefferson, Gretna, Harahan, Westwego,
Jean Lafitte, Lake Catherine, Poydras, River Ridge, Myrtle Grove,
Ama, and Pointe A La Hache.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 233 and
237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near marine areas, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from
the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2980 9019 2977 9022 2996 9033 2999 8995
      3016 8978 3017 8952 3001 8970 3002 8981
      3001 8982 3000 8982 2989 8963 3001 8960
      3010 8949 3007 8936 2994 8936 2989 8921
      2960 8948 2963 8960 2956 8966 2956 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 296DEG 20KT 2989 8989

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

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