Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
628 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend
  as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level
  disturbances to work with a very moist air mass.

- The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the
  potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of
  heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week.

- Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Midday surface analysis shows high pressure extending across the
southeastern US from the Atlantic, while a cold front is draped from
the Great Lakes to near DFW. The pressure gradient between these two
features has again resulted in a somewhat breezy SE to S flow across
the CWA today. Aloft, ridging dominates the east CONUS while
troughing is over the Rockies, providing a W to SW flow overhead
between these two features. A combination of southerly flow at the
surface and southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the next
several days, keeping a steady influx of warm, moist air into the
region. In addition, a series of upper level shortwaves/disturbances
are expected to pass overhead in the SWrly flow beginning tonight
and continuing into the weekend, providing ample support for
convection. Unsurprisingly, this combination of disturbances aloft
and a steady stream of moisture throughout the column will bring
about several days of warm and wet weather that will last through
the end of the forecast period.

Area radar this afternoon shows just a few isolated showers ongoing,
amid otherwise cloudy skies. This trend should continue until later
this evening/tonight, when the first in what is expected to be a
series of MCS's arrives. CAMs are rather split on how much tonight's
MCS actually holds together, with the HRRR keeping a strong line of
storms all the way to the coast overnight, while other guidance
shows part of the line tapering out/weakening as it draws closer to
I-10. Regardless, this line will be accompanied by a chance for both
excessive rainfall and severe weather, with damaging winds begin the
main concern. SPC has backed off a bit, now including majority of
the region (excluding lower Acadiana) in a Marginal Risk (previous
SLGT Risk was trimmed back). On the other hand, WPC has bumped
things up a bit, now outlining nearly all of SE TX in a Slight
Risk with the remaining area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall. Both of these risks will begin to ramp up this evening
and continue through the early morning hours tomorrow, before
another lull in convection arrives by sunrise.

Tomorrow through Saturday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
exists area-wide each day as several more rounds of rainfall are
expected. However, like today, periods of dry conditions will occur
between rounds of showers and storms each day. While it won't be
possible to predict who/where exactly will get rain each day,
guidance is hitting hard on the largest rainfall totals occurring
over SE TX and CENLA, with the lower end totals over Acadiana.
Beyond Saturday, long range guidance shows little change in the
overall pattern, with more upper level shortwaves arriving on
Sun/Mon which will more than likely induce more rounds of showers
and storms through Memorial Day. Temperature wise, very little day
to day changes are expected as showers/cloud cover will keep
highs in the mid 80s each day, while a warm and moist airmass will
hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Daytime heating pop up showers or storms will continue until
sundown or about 20/01z with VFR conditions away from the
convection.

Tonight there is a chance for a complex of thunderstorms ahead of
a weak frontal boundary. May be some low visibility with heavy
rain along with gusty winds. Tried to time the movement of the
complex with the latest CAM guidance and with PROB30 groups.

MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely during the overnight into
around 20/14z Wednesday.

Daytime heating will bring about another chance for showers and
thunderstorms after 20/19z.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A light to moderate southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and
light to modest seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the week
and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the
weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level
disturbances produce several waves of precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next
several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon
Minimum RH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day
through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as
a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances
provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall
will be possible.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
729 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

LAZ027-028-030-TXZ180-201-259-260-200115-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Rapides LA-Hardin TX-Northern Newton TX-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
729 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RAPIDES...
NORTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD AND VERNON PARISHES...TYLER...NEWTON...
NORTHERN HARDIN AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Anacoco to near Cut
And Shoot. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
De Ridder, Jasper, Leesville, Woodville, Newton, Kirbyville,
Rosepine, Merryville, Boyce, Anacoco, Colmesneil, Chester, Rockland,
Town Bluff, Thicket, Toledo Bend Dam, Ebenezer, Hineston, Lena, and
Fred.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 98 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3101 9465 3106 9456 3103 9447
      3116 9391 3117 9358 3128 9353 3128 9344
      3136 9339 3135 9295 3151 9273 3150 9268
      3145 9271 3140 9269 3139 9264 3114 9262
      3027 9465 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 324DEG 27KT 3130 9333 3037 9532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
814 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

LAZ027-028-030-200200-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Rapides LA-
814 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RAPIDES...NORTH CENTRAL
BEAUREGARD AND VERNON PARISHES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 814 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Boyce to near Burr
Ferry. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Pineville, De Ridder, Leesville, Rosepine, Boyce,
Anacoco, Fort Polk, Alexandria International Airport, Slagle,
Hineston, Lena, Ball, New Llano, Colfax, Hornbeck, Tioga, Timber
Trails, Hutton, and Flatwoods.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 75 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 9268 3147 9271 3140 9269 3144 9239
      3132 9223 3130 9223 3077 9331 3120 9355
      3128 9353 3128 9344 3136 9339 3135 9295
      3152 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 314DEG 14KT 3146 9261 3100 9350

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
816 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

LAZ030-TXZ180-201-259>262-200200-
Beauregard LA-Hardin TX-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-
Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
816 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BEAUREGARD PARISH...
TYLER...WEST CENTRAL NEWTON...HARDIN AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 900
PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Jasper to near Votaw.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Jasper, Silsbee, Woodville, Newton, Kirbyville, Kountze,
Sour Lake, Colmesneil, Chester, Evadale, Rockland, Warren, Town
Bluff, Thicket, Saratoga, Call, Ebenezer, Fred, and Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3102 9465 3106 9456 3103 9447
      3112 9405 3063 9354 3011 9443 3011 9459
      3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 325DEG 20KT 3089 9397 3046 9470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
900 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

LAZ030-141-TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-200245-
Beauregard LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-
Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Newton TX-Southern Orange TX-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-
Upper Jefferson TX-Tyler TX-
900 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD AND
NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES...NORTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN
TYLER...WESTERN NEWTON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH
945 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Trout Creek to 6 miles
northwest of Sour Lake. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Port Neches, Lumberton,
Vidor, Bridge City, Jasper, Silsbee, Newton, Kirbyville, Kountze,
Sour Lake, Nome, Evadale, Town Bluff, Thicket, Fred, and Fields.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 878 and
832.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3063 9457 3104 9385 3040 9330
      2974 9434 2976 9436 2989 9436 2989 9444
      3011 9445 3011 9460 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 318DEG 19KT 3062 9374 3020 9448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

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