Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
628 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend
  as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level
  disturbances to work with a very moist air mass.

- The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the
  potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of
  heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week.

- Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Midday surface analysis shows high pressure extending across the
southeastern US from the Atlantic, while a cold front is draped from
the Great Lakes to near DFW. The pressure gradient between these two
features has again resulted in a somewhat breezy SE to S flow across
the CWA today. Aloft, ridging dominates the east CONUS while
troughing is over the Rockies, providing a W to SW flow overhead
between these two features. A combination of southerly flow at the
surface and southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the next
several days, keeping a steady influx of warm, moist air into the
region. In addition, a series of upper level shortwaves/disturbances
are expected to pass overhead in the SWrly flow beginning tonight
and continuing into the weekend, providing ample support for
convection. Unsurprisingly, this combination of disturbances aloft
and a steady stream of moisture throughout the column will bring
about several days of warm and wet weather that will last through
the end of the forecast period.

Area radar this afternoon shows just a few isolated showers ongoing,
amid otherwise cloudy skies. This trend should continue until later
this evening/tonight, when the first in what is expected to be a
series of MCS's arrives. CAMs are rather split on how much tonight's
MCS actually holds together, with the HRRR keeping a strong line of
storms all the way to the coast overnight, while other guidance
shows part of the line tapering out/weakening as it draws closer to
I-10. Regardless, this line will be accompanied by a chance for both
excessive rainfall and severe weather, with damaging winds begin the
main concern. SPC has backed off a bit, now including majority of
the region (excluding lower Acadiana) in a Marginal Risk (previous
SLGT Risk was trimmed back). On the other hand, WPC has bumped
things up a bit, now outlining nearly all of SE TX in a Slight
Risk with the remaining area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall. Both of these risks will begin to ramp up this evening
and continue through the early morning hours tomorrow, before
another lull in convection arrives by sunrise.

Tomorrow through Saturday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
exists area-wide each day as several more rounds of rainfall are
expected. However, like today, periods of dry conditions will occur
between rounds of showers and storms each day. While it won't be
possible to predict who/where exactly will get rain each day,
guidance is hitting hard on the largest rainfall totals occurring
over SE TX and CENLA, with the lower end totals over Acadiana.
Beyond Saturday, long range guidance shows little change in the
overall pattern, with more upper level shortwaves arriving on
Sun/Mon which will more than likely induce more rounds of showers
and storms through Memorial Day. Temperature wise, very little day
to day changes are expected as showers/cloud cover will keep
highs in the mid 80s each day, while a warm and moist airmass will
hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Daytime heating pop up showers or storms will continue until
sundown or about 20/01z with VFR conditions away from the
convection.

Tonight there is a chance for a complex of thunderstorms ahead of
a weak frontal boundary. May be some low visibility with heavy
rain along with gusty winds. Tried to time the movement of the
complex with the latest CAM guidance and with PROB30 groups.

MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely during the overnight into
around 20/14z Wednesday.

Daytime heating will bring about another chance for showers and
thunderstorms after 20/19z.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A light to moderate southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and
light to modest seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the week
and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the
weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level
disturbances produce several waves of precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next
several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon
Minimum RH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day
through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as
a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances
provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall
will be possible.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ180-259-260-192330-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL TYLER...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM
CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ebenezer, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Ebenezer, Browndell, Harrisburg, and Sam Rayburn Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 9403 3094 9430 3107 9429 3111 9406
      3114 9403 3116 9391 3117 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 205DEG 19KT 3104 9408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

LAZ027-TXZ259-260-200015-
Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harrisburg, or 12 miles northwest of Burkeville, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo Bend Dam, Browndell, Jamestown, Farrsville, Harrisburg,
Mayflower, and Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 9345 3089 9385 3108 9412 3111 9410
      3111 9406 3114 9403 3116 9391 3118 9362
      3117 9358 3119 9355 3123 9354 3124 9355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 225DEG 22KT 3110 9385

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rua