Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
607 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very dynamic storm system will move across southeast Texas and
  south Louisiana with strong to severe thunderstorms expected
  this afternoon thru Midnight when it exits east of the
  Atchafalaya.

- Damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail will all be possible
  with the risk persisting after dark. Make sure to have a way to
  receive emergency alerts overnight.

- Cooler and drier weather expected behind the front to end the
  week before a light warming trend prior to another cold front
  passage Sunday night.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A shortwave trough embedded in the subtropical jet across central
Texas this morning will eject eastward and phase with the northern
jet through tomorrow morning. Guidance illustrates a weak surface
low traversing the ARKLATEX region before becoming disorganized
within the larger upper-level pattern east of the Mississippi.

Both thermal and dynamic forcing components suggest that all modes
of severe weather—including tornadoes—will be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. Surface winds ahead of the main
convection are expected to acquire a SSE component below a quickly
veering profile, resulting in 30-35 kt of 0-1km shear and impressive
0-1km SRH of 170+ m2/s2. The recent 00Z sounding analyzed 7.5°C/km
in the mid-levels, indicating that strong updrafts are likely. While
damaging wind may be the primary mode, this forecast package
stresses an increased tornado risk extending further south toward
the coast. Recent 00Z guidance has been more progressive with the
frontal boundary and trough orientation, yielding a more amplified
system than earlier runs. This shift supports the potential for
discrete pre-frontal convection during peak heating, which may erode
low-level capping for mixed-layer parcels.

Storms will exit east of the Atchafalaya River/I-49 corridor around
midnight. Following the frontal passage, winds will shift northerly
and remain gusty through early Friday afternoon. Marine
areas—including lakes, bays, and coastal waters—will be subject to
high-end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Occasional gale-force gusts
are possible.

Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday despite clearing skies,
with highs in the mid-60s as north breezes ease late in the
afternoon. Temperatures moderate into the 70s Friday as winds veer
onshore by late morning. Warm and dry conditions will persist
through Sunday morning ahead of another cold front expected by
evening. The parent trough is forecast to lift well north of the
area, limiting the potential for significant precipitation or severe
weather this far south. However, large high pressure descending from
Canada will exert a strong pressure gradient and facilitate cold air
advection offshore. This pattern will cool temperatures into the 60s
for the start of the work week, with slow moderation expected
through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

MVFR and IFR ceilings are present across the region. After sunrise
winds will begin to increase with gusts over 20 knots but will
remain from the south. Late this afternoon a strong weather system
will begin to impact the region from west to east. Near
thunderstorms winds will be chaotic and gusty with low visibility
and ceilings. TSRA conditions will be widespread from 2 PM CDT
until near midnight as the system move across the region. Behind
the front winds will be from the north and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Conditions will improve slightly through midday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will be expected during
the afternoon and evening. Winds turn offshore and strengthen
quickly in the wake of the front with rapidly building seas to
follow. A small craft advisory is in place after midnight through
Thursday evening. Winds steadily increase thru Thursday morning, and
a brief period of occasional gale force winds and gusts will be
possible until noon. A small craft advisory is in place after
midnight tonight through Thursday evening. Winds and seas will fall
thereafter, turning to onshore once again by Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A long Gulf fetch will drive warm and humid conditions across the
forecast with a nearing weather system and cold front over east
Texas. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the late morning to early afternoon before a line of
showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, moves through from
west to east in the afternoon and overnight. Winds will shift out of
the north-northeast and strengthen quickly behind this front,
ushering southward a much cooler and drier airmass into Thursday.
Minimum RH values will bottom out in the 30s Thursday and Friday.
Area KBDI values have improved to the 100 to 250 range across all
areas thanks to recent rainfall, so there is a lower risk of
wildfire spread. However, it is advised to be cautious if burning.
Winds fall and become onshore by late Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  45  63  39 /  80  80   0   0
LCH  81  51  64  44 /  80  70   0   0
LFT  82  52  65  43 /  60  90  10   0
BPT  81  51  68  47 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ430-432-
     450-452-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-
     432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14