Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
606 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A robust upper level system will bring an area of low pressure
  and Pacific front across the region late Saturday and Saturday
  night with breezy conditions and widespread shower activity.
  There is the potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Upper level ridging in wake of the storm system will bring fair
  conditions with mild temperatures and no rain on Sunday through
  Mardi Gras.

- A warming trend will continue through the week with much above
  normal high temperatures that may approach daily record highs by
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Widely isolated light showers continue across portions of the CWA
this afternoon, while a more organized line of showers and
thunderstorms advances eastward across central and east Texas.
Model guidance has remained consistent with respect to timing,
bringing the convective line into the CWA around sunset and
progressing eastward through the area during the evening hours,
exiting before daybreak Sunday.

Moisture will increase substantially as subtropical Pacific
moisture overspreads the region and combines with rich Gulf
moisture. This will yield PWATs values at or above the 90th
percentile for mid Feb. Deterministic QPF has increased slightly,
with average rainfall totals generally ranging from 0.5 to 1.25
inches, and locally higher amounts possible across portions of
interior SETX and CenLA. In response, WPC has expanded the
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall to encompass the entire CWA.

The severe weather outlook remains largely unchanged over the past
24 hours, with SPC continuing a Slight Risk across the entire CWA.
While forecast shear has decreased slightly, the overall parameter
space remains similar. The primary hazard continues to be damaging
wind gusts, though an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Outside of convection, southerly to southeasterly flow will
continue to strengthen, particularly across coastal areas and
portions of east CenLA. Forecast wind speeds remain just below
advisory criteria, and therefore no Wind Advisory has been issued
at this time. However, non convective wind gusts approaching 30 to
35 mph will be possible later this evening.

Precip will gradually diminish Sunday morning as the surface low
lifts eastward into Mississippi and ridging begins to build across
TX. A surface high will follow, allowing slightly drier air to
filter into the region during the afternoon. The surface high will
shift east of the area late Monday, supporting a return to
southerly flow. Aloft, an upper level ridge will expand from
southern MX into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

High pressure centered over Mexico will continue to expand into TX
and eventually across much of the Gulf through the work week. The
ridge will gradually flatten, resulting in more zonal flow across
the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure will remain
positioned east of the area, maintaining persistent southerly
flow. The extended forecast remains nearly rain free with
exception to showers expected in advance of another pacific front.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm, with afternoon highs
climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows
generally range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A robust line of showers and thunderstorms is approaching the
region from the west and will move across the region this evening
into the overnight hours, exiting Acadiana shortly after
midnight. This line will move into BPT over the next couple of
hours, LCH/AEX shortly after that and then Acadiana closer to 04Z.
Strong gusty winds possibly approaching severe criteria,
torrential rainfall capable of reducing VIS to a mile or less,
frequent lightning, and lower CIGs, will all accompany this line
of storms. Conditions will gradually improve behind the line of
storms after midnight however, gusty winds will continue as winds
shirt west/northwest. Breezy winds continue through tomorrow,
while ceilings become VFR by late morning area-wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  70  48  71 / 100  20   0   0
LCH  57  72  53  70 / 100   0   0   0
LFT  60  75  52  72 /  90  10   0   0
BPT  57  74  52  72 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ430-432-450-
     452-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ435-436-455-
     475.

&&

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
949 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Cheneyville       31.04N 92.30W
02/14/2026                   Rapides            LA   911 Call Center

            Roof blown off home.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
950 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Pine Forest       30.20N 94.08W
02/14/2026                   Orange             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Tree limbs on home and carport. Possible
            tornado.

&&

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