Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
437 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe,
  will exit southeastern Kentucky this evening.

- Drier weather with modestly lower humidity behind a cold front
  will last from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

Some showers and storms have developed across northern portions of
the CWA. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 is now in effect through 8 PM
this evening.

A closed low will deepen over Upstate New York this afternoon. The
systems cold front extends southwest through portions of
Pennsylvania, West Virgina, and Kentucky. After some morning
convection, the area has seen the sun peak out in spots. Surface
analysis and RAP guidance suggest MLCAPE will range between 2000-
2500 J/kg this afternoon, with 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear.
Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of this cold front
through the afternoon. The environment will favor supercell type
storms initially before transitioning into bowing segments. The main
hazard with these storms are damaging wind gusts. Model soundings
consistently show DCAPE around 1300 J/kg. With a dry mid layer
between 700-500 mb (lapse rate of 7.4C/KM), any rain that evaporates
passing through this layer, and cools could potentially aid in
accelerating downdrafts. With MUCAPE ranging between 3000-5000 J/kg
and DCAPE around 1300 J/kg the Derecho Composite tool on the SPC
page is cluing in on the wind potential. These showers and storms
should taper off by evening, with clearing skies behind the cold
front. Patchy areas of fog may develop overnight, with temperatures
cooling into the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday, high pressure slowly builds into the area Wednesday,
allowing for mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s across
Eastern Kentucky. With light winds and clear skies Wednesday night,
patchy valley fog may develop in the late evening and overnight.
Temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 437 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

The long-term period opens Thursday morning with a deep trough axis
extending from Quebec southward to along the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast US coast. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam high is in place over
the Southern Rockies with broader ridging across much of the
Central and Western CONUS. This leaves the Ohio Valley in a zone
of subsidence on the eastern side of the ridging, corresponding to
an area of surface high pressure. There is also a shortwave
trough riding over the top of the ridging across the Dakotas at
the start of the period.

Aside from some nighttime and morning fog in the typically favored
river valley locales, fair weather will be found across eastern
Kentucky through Friday as surface high pressure crests over and
just northeast of the JKL CWA. This will keep relatively cool
temperatures in place for both Thursday and Friday with highs in
the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60F. Dew
points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s will make it feel
quite comfortable.

Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, the shortwave
trough over the Northern Plains will dig southeastward and close
off into a low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak area of
surface low pressure will develop ahead of this feature over the
Central Plains on Thursday night into Friday, then occlude and
decay near or over the Commonwealth early next week. This system
will wrap higher humidity levels back into eastern Kentucky while
also bringing rounds of convection. As a result, daily high
temperatures will remain on the cool side, generally in the lower
to middle 80s, while nighttime lows moderate to between 65 and
70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped over parts of the area
with the more southeastern terminals being impacted as the latest
clusters move through. Look for these storms to clear out early
then a brief lull is anticipated before new cells develop towards
noon. Have covered favored times for storms with prob30 groups.
IFR or worse conditions can be expected with any of the heavier
thunderstorms. There is good potential for strong winds with the
more intense storms, but forecast confidence in specific timing
and placement remains low. Eventually this renewed convection
should wane and largely be gone from southeast Kentucky by early
evening. Away from any storms, winds will be light and variable
through early afternoon before favoring the northwest direction at
up to 10 kts. Later tonight, valley fog and low clouds may become
a factor in some of the TAF sites, but was left out for now in
lieu of the more active near term FM groups.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ106>110-119-281845-
Martin KY-Floyd KY-Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-Wolfe KY-
210 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MARTIN...CENTRAL MORGAN...
JOHNSON...NORTHERN FLOYD...MAGOFFIN AND NORTHEASTERN WOLFE COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from New Cummer to Wittensville to near Hode.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paintsville, West Liberty, Prestonsburg, Salyersville, Inez, Mason,
Henry, Lewis, Warfield, Pilgrim, Burkhart, Oaklawn Estates, Florress,
Davella, Pekin, Falcon, Omer, Whitehouse, Wonnie, and Burning Fork.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 55 and 76.
 Kentucky Highway 3 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Kentucky Highway 3 in Johnson County  Kentucky Highway 3 in Martin
County between mile markers 1 and 9.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 17 and 21.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Johnson County between mile markers 0 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 8241 3770 8239 3767 8270 3769 8337
      3792 8346 3794 8345 3793 8275 3788 8261
      3795 8258 3796 8251 3790 8247 3791 8247
      3788 8242 3781 8240 3776 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 336DEG 18KT 3789 8336 3787 8280 3792 8244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GINNICK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ108-112-281900-
Breathitt KY-Wolfe KY-
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT AND
CENTRAL WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Baptist, or near Campton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Campton, Simpson, Lower Gilmore, Rosefork, Keck, Burkhart, Lexie,
Baptist, Daysboro, Hollonville, Gilmore, Rock Lick, Lee City,
Vancleve, Moct, Trent, Hazel Green, Stillwater, Wilhurst, and
Shockey.

THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 44
and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 8338 3779 8335 3777 8333 3776 8333
      3775 8331 3769 8325 3768 8326 3762 8318
      3759 8344 3777 8357 3782 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 314DEG 19KT 3774 8348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ107-109-110-119-120-281915-
Martin KY-Floyd KY-Pike KY-Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-
237 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MARTIN...SOUTHERN
JOHNSON...FLOYD...NORTHERN PIKE AND EAST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ivyton to near Dicks Creek to near Chattaroy.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Prestonsburg, Coal Run Village, Martin, Forest Hills,
Allen, Huddy, Meta, Pilgrim, Oaklawn Estates, Davella, Printer,
Lancer, Aluba, Piso, Betsy Layne, Prince, Dotson, Ivel, and Honaker.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 3 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Kentucky Highway 3 in Johnson County  Kentucky Highway 3 in Martin
County between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 4 and 14.
 U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 24.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 21.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Johnson County between mile markers 0 and 2.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 25 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern and northeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8242 3748 8280 3776 8304 3781 8238
      3776 8233 3776 8231 3774 8233 3770 8230
      3767 8230 3765 8223 3762 8221 3763 8219
      3765 8218 3762 8218 3758 8213 3757 8214
      3756 8213 3755 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 322DEG 23KT 3771 8297 3772 8264 3778 8225

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GINNICK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ058-059-108-111-112-281930-
Lee KY-Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL POWELL...EAST
CENTRAL ESTILL...NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN WOLFE
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Cobhill to Lawson. Movement was southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Beattyville, Fincastle, Pilot, Torrent, White Ash, Leeco,
Fillmore, Pence, Copebranch, Vancleve, Patsey, Wilhurst, War Creek,
Vada, Elkatawa, Tallega, Lane, Haddix, and Enoch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern and east central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 8386 3765 8342 3747 8334 3752 8363
      3754 8364 3753 8366 3754 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 323DEG 13KT 3773 8382 3760 8346

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GINNICK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
314 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ110-120-282000-
Floyd KY-Pike KY-
314 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD AND CENTRAL
PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Eastern to Majestic. Movement was southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Coal Run Village, East McDowell, Jamboree, Fishtrap Lake,
Garden Village, Printer, Aluba, McDowell, Betsy Layne, Toonerville,
Honaker, Buckhorn Hollow, Blue Moon, Osborn, Orkney, Woodman, Biggs,
Rockhouse, and Hunter.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 3 and 7.
 U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 8.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County near mile marker 1.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 8 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8227 3731 8264 3754 8286 3758 8213
      3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8211 3755 8210
      3756 8208 3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8202
      3754 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 306DEG 22KT 3750 8279 3754 8208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GINNICK

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