Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
821 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through
  Monday.

- Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a
  possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts.

- Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent,
  or train, leading to flash flooding.

- Heat indices will flirt with Heat Advisory levels (~105F)
  through early this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026

Convection, some of it severe has blown up over the northern part
of the area this evening, and the POP has been raised to
accommodate it. Persistent or training cells have largely been
outside our area so far, but problems could arise shortly and it
will be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 425 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in
northeastern portions of TX and extending into parts of the
Southeast and TN Valley. A shortwave trough is passing through the
eastern Great Lakes to the Lower to Middle OH Valley while another
shortwave trough/MCV is upstream over the IA to MO vicinity. At
500 mb, a trough extended from Hudson Bay to Ontario to northern
Great Lakes and was approaching the Ontario and Quebec area. At
the surface, an area of low pressure was moving through James Bay
to Ontario and Quebec border region with a warm front lifting
through NC and parts of the mid Atlantic while a cold front trails
into the mid MS Valley to KS and OK border region. For the most
part, cumulus thus far has struggled to persist and develop
vertically. An outflow boundary/wind shift, has moves into areas
near the I-64 corridor and is nearly stationary. A thunderstorm
did develop in its vicinity in Rowan County and moved across
Elliott County and then into Lawrence County. Recent
mesoanalysis has MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg near the WV and
KY border and 2000 to 2500 J/kg near Lake Cumberland with 1500 to
2000 J/kg over the remainder of the area or central part of the
CWA. Mid level lapse rates are generally 5.5C to around 6C while
low level lapse rates are more substantial between 7 and 8C/km.
Effective shear is 20 to 25KT in the norht and east, with lesser
values further south.

Over the next few hours, MLCAPE per SPC Mesoanalysis RAP based
forecasts peak in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg through around sunset with
mid level lapse rates remaining around 6C/km with low level lapse
rates steep for a couple more hours before diminishing to under
7C/km toward sunset. Effective shear may increase a bit as the
shortwave passes through parts of the OH Valley to the Central
Appalachians into the 25 to 30KT range. This may support some
additional isolated to scattered convection through portions of
the evening and some stray convection has developed in parts of
central KY. Convection in IL and nearing IN weakens in some of the
CAMS and what is left of that may pass north of eastern KY later
this evening though confidence in the evolution of that. Then
after midnight, the upstream shortwave/MCV should approach
eastern KY from the west in the form of a potential MCS. PW though
at a bit of a min at present, especially south where values are
in the 1.6 to 1.7 inch range. These values should trend up during
the evening and into the overnight per the 12Z HREF into the 1.8
south to 2.0 to 2.1 inch vicinity in the north of near 90th
percentile south and 93 to 97th percentile in the north. Any more
organized convection could produce strong wind gusts and any
training could result in instances of flash flooding. SWODY1 and
Day 1 EROs are in alignment with this reasoning.

On Monday, the overnight shortwave/MCV and potential MCS should
pass east of eastern KY early on Monday as the cold front reaches
the Commonwealth. At least moderate instability with MLCAPE in
the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range may develop ahead of the front on
Monday with effective shear on the order of 25 to 30KT. This may
support some organized convection with the south possibly more
favored with expected higher instability. A Marginal to Slight
Risk SWODY2 has been issued for tomorrow for those concerns with
wind the primary hazard along with torrential downpours as 1.8 to
2.1 inch PW should be prevalent. Any training again would pose a
risk for high water or flash flooding.

The 500 mb trough axis moves further east by Monday evening and
this should eventually push the cold front to the south and
southeast of the JKL CWA by around midnight on Monday night
leading to an eventual diminishment of convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026

At the onset of the long term period, a strong closed upper level
low will sit over Manitoba, with general troughing over the
northern CONUS, especially in the vicinity of the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a relatively flattened ridge will linger over the
southern US, with eastern Kentucky finding itself in a region of
zonal to slightly northwesterly flow aloft, depending on the
orientation of ridging. At the surface, the previous frontal
system will be south of the forecast area, having fully moved
through, and surface high pressure will be building near the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Behind the surface high, a secondary
cold front associated with the relatively vertically stacked
Canadian low will extend southward into the Upper Midwest. As
these features travel eastward, building high pressure over the
forecast area will keep eastern Kentucky largely dry on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be fairly seasonable as well, with highs ranging
from the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area. Clear skies
overnight may allow a very modest ridge/valley temperature split
to develop, with the limiting factor being lingering moisture. MOS
guidance is rather aggressive with these splits, but given
expected moisture, valley minTs have been nudged down only
modestly into the low 60s for now. Of note, fog formation on
Wednesday morning appears likely for much of the forecast area,
particularly in typical mainstem river valleys.

Dry weather will persist through much of Wednesday as surface
high pressure continues to translate through the area. Meanwhile,
the upper level trough will continue to dig towards the
Commonwealth, with the aforementioned cold front pushing
southeast. By Wednesday evening, the front will approach eastern
Kentucky and rain chances will return to the area. Of note, some
models depict an additional shortwave traversing the base of the
trough (roughly centered over the Ohio Valley) around the time
frontally forced convection approaches, or perhaps slightly
before. This enhanced mid level flow may elevate shear somewhat,
and depending on frontal timing, instability may also be adequate
for stronger storms, although model spread remains quite high at
this time. Any risk for severe weather (or lack thereof) remains
dependent on how these ingredients line up, with overall risk
looking quite low at this time. Meanwhile, a moist air mass will
be in place ahead of the front, with LREF mean PW values generally
in the range of 1.6-1.7 in (roughly 80th percentile or higher
compared to climatology). This, in addition to potentially
enhanced convective coverage if shortwave energy interacts with
the front, could allow for at least isolated instances of flash
flooding. Again, model variability remains very high at this
stage, but WPC has already outlined the forecast area in a Day 4
Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday, and
an additional Day 5 Marginal Risk on Thursday as the system
sags south. Guidance does suggest the front will slow as it
passes through the southern portion of our area and into
Tennessee. Exactly how quickly this boundary progresses is still a
source of uncertainty, but rain chances have been maintained
through Thursday to account for this slowing motion. Any
hydrological concerns will also be dependent on the speed of this
frontal passage in addition to the extent of convective coverage.

Following the frontal passage, troughing will continue to
amplify, eventually digging all the way into the Southeast as
ridging retreats towards the Four Corners region. This will usher
in cooler weather, with high temperatures as low as the upper 70s
for some locations on Friday (and perhaps lower if convection can
take hold). Additional impulses will keep at least scattered
showers and storms in the forecast each day, with rain chances
generally peaking in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026

Thunderstorms are ongoing over the northern portion of the
forecast area, and sinking south. They will probably affect
all but the southern TAF sites with IFR or worse conditions at
times this evening. After this evening's storms, it leaves
considerable uncertainty as to how things play out overnight into
Monday morning. Earlier, it appeared that the greater threat of
storms would be later in the night or Monday morning, but it is
unclear how current activity will impact that potential. Have used
generalized PROB30 groups in TAFs over an extended period. Fog
hasn't been hit very hard in the forecast, but it may need to be
reconsidered in the wake of current precip.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-172000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible at times, particularly tonight. Locations
where thunderstorms are most persistent could experience isolated
flash flooding. Additionally, the most intense storms could produce
damaging winds.

In addition to the threat for thunderstorms, hot temperatures and
high humidity levels will yield heat indices of 95 to 105 degrees
through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday and Monday night, and at times from
Wednesday night through Saturday. Locations where thunderstorms are
the most frequent or persistent could experience isolated flash
flooding. Additionally, the most intense storms on Monday could
produce damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
509 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ119-162130-
Martin KY-
509 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 509 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Job, or 8 miles south of Louisa, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Inez, Warfield, Beauty, Add, Hode, Oppy, Calf Creek, Milo, Lovely,
Job, Wells, Kermit, and Naugatuck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8234 3790 8260 3795 8258 3796 8253
      3794 8249 3794 8250 3790 8247 3791 8246
      3790 8244 3787 8241 3786 8242 3783 8240
      3781 8240 3782 8239 3778 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 298DEG 25KT 3799 8256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MARCUS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
627 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ052-104-162300-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-
627 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ROWAN AND
NORTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haldeman, or near Olive Hill, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haldeman, Triplett, Gates, and Stark.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
145 and 148.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8333 3828 8333 3822 8330 3820 8323
      3824 8322 3827 8317 3823 8312 3822 8309
      3821 8308 3816 8309 3824 8341 3836 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 280DEG 23KT 3828 8329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
658 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ051-052-060-104-106-162330-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-Menifee KY-Morgan KY-Bath KY-
658 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MORGAN...SOUTHEASTERN
BATH...NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE...SOUTHERN ROWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 658 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Crix to Zilpo to Sudith. Movement was
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Liberty, Henry, Lenox, Zag, Wagner, Blairs Mills, Olympia
Springs, Yale, Lick Branch, Little Sandy, Omer, Bangor, Dehart,
Cogswell, Zilpo, Scranton, Wrigley, Lytten, Pelfrey, and Hamm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8306 3794 8320 3790 8337 3806 8370
      3816 8348 3818 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 302DEG 30KT 3816 8333 3809 8346 3804 8362

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MARCUS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
727 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ059-060-106-108-109-170000-
Menifee KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
727 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL POWELL...
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...SOUTHERN MENIFEE...NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN AND
WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 726 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Valeria, or 7 miles north of Campton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Campton, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone
National Forrest, Lexie, Rexville, Pine Ridge, Sellars, Mariba,
Pomeroyton, Haystack, Gosneyville, High Falls, Lane, Malaga, Nada,
Jenson, Netty, Adele, Bethany, Hager, and Lower Gilmore.

THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 30
and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8318 3768 8336 3770 8339 3768 8343
      3766 8344 3764 8349 3764 8353 3786 8377
      3793 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 301DEG 28KT 3785 8355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MARCUS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
844 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ058-059-108-111-112-114-170115-
Lee KY-Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Owsley KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
844 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...
NORTHEASTERN OWSLEY...EAST CENTRAL ESTILL...WEST CENTRAL BREATHITT...
LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 844 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fixer, or 7 miles north of Beattyville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beattyville, Booneville, Fincastle, Turin, Pilot, Torrent, White Ash,
Leeco, Pinnacle, Fillmore, Grass, Chestnut Gap, Copebranch, Patsey,
Scoville, Ida May, Lerose, War Creek, Vada, and Pitts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 8390 3778 8370 3755 8343 3741 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 321DEG 17KT 3769 8373

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KYZ108>110-112-113-115-118-120-170130-
Breathitt KY-Perry KY-Floyd KY-Knott KY-Pike KY-Magoffin KY-
Letcher KY-Wolfe KY-
857 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LETCHER...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY...KNOTT...FLOYD...CENTRAL BREATHITT...PIKE...
SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN AND EAST CENTRAL WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM
EDT...

At 857 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Board Tree to Buckhorn Hollow to Hardshell.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Hazard, Prestonsburg, Jackson, Hindman, Simpson, Estill,
Bath, Coal Run Village, Elkhorn City, Wheelwright, Martin, Pippa
Passes, Forest Hills, Wayland, Allen, Elic, Meta, Buck, and Handshoe.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 53 and 56.
 Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 57 and 59.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 14.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 1 and 20.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 15.
 U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 24.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 16.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Lethcher County between mile markers 6 and 7.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 0 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8235 3721 8253 3727 8331 3777 8342
      3775 8331 3771 8327 3774 8324 3767 8281
      3769 8249 3767 8245 3769 8230 3767 8229
      3763 8219 3765 8218 3764 8218 3755 8213
      3756 8208 3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 321DEG 25KT 3754 8215 3739 8266 3747 8327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEERTSON