Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
505 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms capable of producing heavy rainfall will bring an
  elevated (level 2 out of 4) flash flood threat today.

- We will be monitoring a stormy weather pattern for additional
  flash flood and severe weather threats through the next week.

- Increasingly dangerous levels of heat stress could return for
  much of the area Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The forecast area will remain in the interface region between a
strong subtropical ridge axis centered to our southwest and an
unseasonably strong longwave trough over the central/eastern
CONUS. Northwest flow between these prominent features will
support additional rounds of storms as we go through the weekend
and upcoming work week.

For Today through Sunday: The primary concern is storm
development this morning associated with MCV activity embedded in
a larger domain of cyclonic flow. The mesoscale ascent interacting
with an unstable (most unstable CAPE up to 2000 j/kg) and very
moist (precipitable water up to 2.2 inches) airmass will support
elevated flash flood threat, especially given the antecedent
conditions. Evolution of the the threat today is clearly centered
along/north of the I-20 corridor through the morning, but becomes
more nebulous as we go later into the day/afternoon. The ceiling
on the heavy rain threat is not as high as in recent days and will
hold off on any mention of significant FF concerns in the HWO
graphics for now. Going into Sunday, a strengthening low level
warm advection pattern will support disorganized and diurnally
enhanced showers and storms with greatest rain chances centered on
mainly the north half of the area while the ridge briefly exerts
more influence.

Monday through next Friday: Guidance has trended stronger and more
suppressed with the westerlies, and this will result in continued
storm threats with additional concerns for flash flooding/severe
weather. As of now, it does not appear any of these threats will
be significant, and limited/marginal categories should suffice for
the most part. With that said, local mesoscale influences and
antecedent conditions will drive any flash flood and severe
weather threats on a daily basis, so monitor for updates as we go
through time this upcoming week. It is also worth mentioning that
heat may build to elevated threat levels Monday ahead of storms
that move in later in the day and evening, and this would result
in the need for messaging as we get closer. Going forward, heat
stress could be a lingering issue for southern portions of the
area, with areas farther north a concern if there is just a slight
northward shift in the ridge axis from what is currently
forecast. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR flight conditions at the start of the period as showers/storms
dissipate over sites. Patchy fog will be possible during the
overnight hours along with increasing low stratus; resulting in MVFR
flight conditions through the morning. After 12Z, showers may be
possible; however, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  73  88  75 /  80  20  50   0
Meridian      85  72  87  75 /  90  20  60  10
Vicksburg     86  74  89  76 /  70  20  50   0
Hattiesburg   88  75  88  76 /  80  30  50   0
Natchez       88  75  90  77 /  70  30  50   0
Greenville    85  73  89  76 /  70  10  60  20
Greenwood     85  72  89  76 /  80  20  70  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ031>060.

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

EC/SW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
423 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-201015-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-Richland LA-Morehouse LA-East Carroll LA-
West Carroll LA-
423 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHICOT AND ASHLEY
COUNTIES...MOREHOUSE...SOUTHWESTERN EAST CARROLL...NORTHERN RICHLAND
AND WEST CARROLL PARISHES THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

At 421 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of slow moving
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall along a line extending from
Crossett to near Oak Ridge. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9211 3321 9208 3323 9209 3331 9198
      3340 9196 3339 9161 3291 9131 3258 9138
      3247 9187 3251 9191 3266 9191 3271 9197
      3271 9204 3270 9205 3284 9206 3287 9208
      3301 9207 3308 9214 3315 9211 3319 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 221DEG 23KT 3315 9199 3264 9169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

EC

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