Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet pattern will continue through the extended period.

- Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon.

- Heat Stress will be a concern for the southwest portions of the
  area this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Through Saturday: Early afternoon surface analysis had a cold front
dropping south of our Highway 82 corridor as was overtaking an old
stalled boundary that was draped across our delta region extending
east southeast across central and east central Mississippi.
Convection was noted firing along the old boundary and ahead of the
cold front. Just to our west regional radars showed a line of storms
over southwest Arakansas and northwest Louisiana associated with
a shortwave and an MCV. All this convective activity is expected
to merge over our CWA this afternoon and continue to spread east
southeast this evening before gradually dissipating. Isolated
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible
generally south of the Highway 82 corridor. These storms will also
bring the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Considering the
antecedent conditions and river flooding across our CWA, flash
flooding will be likely in spots generally south of Highway 82 but
our southeast remains the most vulnerable due to the recent
flooding rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through
this evening. In addition, the warm and very moist airmass over
our CWA with PWATs greater than two inches, has combined with
temperatures in the lower 90s to result in peak heat index values
above 105F across our southwest this afternoon. A Heat advisory
remains in effect for that area until this evening. The cold front
is expected to stall across the central portions of our CWA by
morning. Although most of the convection will see a distinct
diurnal trend additional rainfall will be possible through the
night as the stalled cold front will remain a focus for
redevelopment. Guidance suggests an early start Saturday to
convection. This early start is expected to hold temperatures down
even in our south so heat stress will be less of a concern.
Rainfall rates with Saturday's convection is expected to be lower
and although we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch this
forecast package, flooding will remain a concern due to the
antecedent conditions and continued river flooding. /22/

Through Thursday:
Sunday: The wet pattern will continue as a shortwave trough moves
over the Lower MS River Valley and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary over our CWA through Sunday. CAM models suggest
the formation of couple of MCSs near TX/AR that will head towards
our area. With the previous rainfall, saturated soil, and storm
training, flooding will remain a concern.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure over AZ/NM and northern
Mexico and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes/Ohio Region
will set up the next chances for rain. Multiple shortwave
disturbances are expected to traverse over our CWA with additional
rounds of wet weather for the duration of week. Chances for
severe weather can't be ruled out, however, nothing has been
outlooked at this time. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A band of TSRA across cntrl and east cntrl MS wl maintain lower
flight restrictions this aftn. Elsewhere VFR conditions wl
continue until scattered to numerous TSRA move in from the west
and spread se through this evening before dissipating. After 08Z
MVFR cigs wl develop at most TAF sites. Widespread -RA wl move
over the area from the nw by 12Z and continue to result in lower
flight restrictions through the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  73  89 /  70  90  40  60
Meridian      73  85  72  88 /  60  90  40  60
Vicksburg     74  88  74  89 /  60  80  40  60
Hattiesburg   75  89  75  89 /  50  80  40  40
Natchez       75  90  75  90 /  60  70  40  50
Greenville    73  86  73  89 /  60  80  40  60
Greenwood     72  86  73  89 /  50  80  40  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040>066-072>074.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ053-054-059>064-
     072-073.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ023>026.

AR...None.
&&

22/SW/22

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
336 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MSZ049-192130-
Rankin MS-
336 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Richland, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jackson, Pearl, Richland, and Monterey around 340 PM CDT.
  Brandon around 345 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 9019 3223 9019 3223 9020 3225 9021
      3226 9018 3227 9019 3229 9018 3229 9015
      3230 9016 3228 8992 3215 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 279DEG 15KT 3226 9017

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MSZ018-019-025>027-192200-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-Bolivar MS-
406 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN GRENADA...NORTHERN LEFLORE AND BOLIVAR
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Deeson, or 11 miles northwest of Shelby, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Duncan and Alligator around 410 PM CDT.
  Rome around 450 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9066 3399 9066 3399 9045 3381 9045
      3381 9018 3370 9030 3381 9003 3383 8993
      3390 8992 3387 8972 3386 8972 3357 8983
      3373 9115 3378 9099 3397 9109 3396 9097
      3409 9087 3411 9094 3412 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 274DEG 24KT 3410 9085

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
526 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MSZ027>029-192330-
Carroll MS-Montgomery MS-Webster MS-
526 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN
WEBSTER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coila, or near Carrollton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Winona and Vaiden around 530 PM CDT.
  Poplar Creek around 555 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3354 8935 3343 8942 3344 8945 3339 8945
      3328 8952 3328 8968 3337 9016 3346 9012
      3346 9010 3350 9010 3355 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 292DEG 23KT 3342 8989

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
622 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MSZ057-065-066-200015-
Jones MS-Covington MS-Jasper MS-
622 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN JASPER...NORTHEASTERN
COVINGTON AND JONES COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Soso, or near Laurel, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Laurel, Ellisville, and Tuckers Crossing around 625 PM CDT.
  Mill Creek around 640 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 8951 3180 8941 3180 8932 3188 8932
      3195 8925 3187 8891 3183 8891 3182 8894
      3143 8894 3144 8923
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 292DEG 27KT 3172 8922

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86